USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: You know, model progs are looking a little mid level magical for Monday. Pretty decent f-gen from 850-700 mb, closed/closing lows provide some deformation. I would say the forcing isn't half bad from BID to the Canal on the GFS and Euro. Problem is there could be some saturation issues (GFS has a 75-80% area lurking around the Pike) so the lift wouldn't really amount to much. I do hate the GFS QPF output though. models have been trending better, I actually thought the NAM was better over the Cape and Islands for Monday. Very potent shortwave energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 OceanSTWx, the GFS shows better QPF output for Cape and Islands on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: models have been trending better, I actually thought the NAM was better over the Cape and Islands for Monday. Very potent shortwave energy. 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: OceanSTWx, the GFS shows better QPF output for Cape and Islands on Monday. Meh, it's got like a tenth for ACK. But I think it has the potential to be better than that if we saturate. The NAM has the same problem the GFS does. The forcing is there, but the snow growth zone is not saturated. All that lift is wasted on crap snow growth. That to me is the biggest limiting factor right now, moisture. Otherwise it could be a sneaky near advisory event for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Meh, it's got like a tenth for ACK. But I think it has the potential to be better than that if we saturate. The NAM has the same problem the GFS does. The forcing is there, but the snow growth zone is not saturated. All that lift is wasted on crap snow growth. That to me is the biggest limiting factor right now, moisture. Otherwise it could be a sneaky near advisory event for some. What do you think of the shortwave itself? Pretty impressive dynamics. The 00z CMC is on steroids for the Monday system after the Super Bowl. If a system like that happened the EURO and CMC would be the first to see it unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: What do you think of the shortwave itself? Pretty impressive dynamics. The 00z CMC is on steroids for the Monday system after the Super Bowl. If a system like that happened the EURO and CMC would be the first to see it unfold. It really doesn't matter how dynamic the shortwave is if it doesn't have any moisture to work with. You'll just get hours of flakes that add up to a half inch if you're lucky. If models moisten up for Monday, then you have something to work with because the lift is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Yes the lift is there. Man I hope it performs ok. I wouldn't mind a few inches of snow to coat everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Seems fitting that wave #1 has the forcing but no moisture, and wave #2 has the moisture but lacks the strong forcing. C'est la vie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Some of you are gonna lose your mind tracking any post SB deal ready. #settingupfordissapointment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Some of you are gonna lose your mind tracking any post SB deal ready. #settingupfordissapointment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Some of you are gonna lose your mind tracking any post SB deal ready. #settingupfordissapointment LOL. I was thinking the same thing----it's 8 freakin' days away. Sit back and enjoy the sleet-covered ground for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Some of you are gonna lose your mind tracking any post SB deal ready. #settingupfordissapointment We were talking about tomorrow's system that moves through the flow Scott, not the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 7 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: We were talking about tomorrow's system that moves through the flow Scott, not the weekend. No read the previous posts talking about it being there on models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 To James credit, tomorrow is a lottle more interesting for the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Clipper looks rather anemic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Looks really quite........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Debbies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Debbies I love snow just as much as you, thats why I'm here, just took the dogs for a walk listening to the birds chirping away.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 1 minute ago, 512high said: I love snow just as much as you, thats why I'm here, just took the dogs for a walk listening to the birds chirping away.. I don't think they ever left, it's been so warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 I think the best we can hope for this winter is about average. The next two-three weeks will determine if we can muster that or if it's a ratter. Now or never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: I don't think they ever left, it's been so warm. Scott, I think you are right! I guess I can say, I'm very happy for ski area(s), people that love winter sports etc...I own an irrigation company going on about 30 years...however, I love snow, I love snow removal etc, yup i am debbie downer today......After July 4th, I say to my wife, we now start a slow process to fall then winter...she always wants to kill me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 5 minutes ago, 512high said: Scott, I think you are right! I guess I can say, I'm very happy for ski area(s), people that love winter sports etc...I own an irrigation company going on about 30 years...however, I love snow, I love snow removal etc, yup i am debbie downer today......After July 4th, I say to my wife, we now start a slow process to fall then winter...she always wants to kill me! Next 15 days or so seems like it will have some action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Next 15 days or so seems like it will have some action. Well I will sit back and listen to you pros and others figure it out, .....just hope they are more then nickels and dime events.....ty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Next 15 days or so seems like it will have some action. That's what she said? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 NAM looks better with that clipper. Very potent s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 I like it. Some E flow near the srfc after 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Looks pretty certain that we will reach the 2 year mark on Feb 8th without a warning level snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 If that sagged a bit more south, we would probably have some decent erly enhancement off the water Tuesday night. Snow growth also seems good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Now do we believe it's correct, is the bigger question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Now do we believe it's correct, is the bigger question. We wait for other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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