North Balti Zen Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 We are close enough and snow now showing up in the mesos that peeling this off to its own thread may make some sense. Even one inch makes it the event of the season for a lot of the area. Hell, dusting gets close. discuss here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Are you feelin it Evil? Is that a yessss? Good luck with your thread. Hope you do better than the last two starters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: I was going to start a thread but thank God you beat me to it. I'm going with fail until proven wrong, but clippers are about my favorite system around here. I could see this trend a touch stronger as we get closer to gametime. I expect 3-6" region wide before it ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 That's a very narrow band for the models to nail down. Enough enhancement east of the mountains showing up, suggesting that the jackpot should be decent. But we're still too far out to determine where that jackpot falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 The NAMs like it, although they dont agree on exactly where. Pretty localized. RGEM and 12z GFS look better, and more widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Why isn't this pinned yet? Randy, WxUSAF, MG, H2O, Bob? My god what's wrong with you people? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 LOL damn that was fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 28, 2017 Author Share Posted January 28, 2017 I am hoping for snow in the air when I get up Monday morning. Would immediately be second best event for me if I even see more than three flakes at one time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 1 minute ago, gymengineer said: That's a very narrow band for the models to nail down. Enough enhancement east of the mountains showing up, suggesting that the jackpot should be decent. But we're still too far out to determine where that jackpot falls. Exactly. Just look at the 12z 12km, 4km, and 3km NAM. Keying on slightly different areas. This will shift around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: LOL damn that was fast Pinned it as you were typing I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Exactly. Just look at the 12z 12km, 4km, and 3km NAM. Keying on slightly different areas. This will shift around. Probably end up jackpotting Winchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Just now, WxUSAF said: Pinned it as you were typing I think. Must have. I got a great laugh when I refreshed my screen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I don't like the NAM triplets, verbatim there is a strange jump in the precip field in some of those panels, and I'm still nursing burns from earlier in the season. It was heartening to see the GFS and RGEM though. I'm not sure it happens, but I like the possibility that instead of a weak and tattered system rolling through, a low actually starts to develop a bit, bringing us a more defined period of light snow (if that makes sense). That's how we maximize potential here IMO. Yeah the RGEM and GFS imply a more widespread light event, although there will likely be a pretty narrow area that gets the higher amounts. And by higher I mean maybe 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 12z GGEM ~0.75" snow for D.C. 12z GFS also about 0.75" snow for D.C. slightly more for US 50 Corridor or slightly north of there in Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 12z GEM is a pretty uniform 1/2 to 1 inch through the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Looking at 12z nam at 500 mb looks like it would favor DC and points s/e . The energy looks to straddle the Va/ NC line as it passes. Baltimore north would want a central Va. Vort pass . Meso models look like they agree . Hopefully someone can get couple inches out of it to boost moral in here. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=500hv&rh=2017012812&fh=42&r=conus&dpdt= Those ns vorts are notorious for trending north at the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Ditto that ....we're inside 40 hours though and within meso range . Tonights runs hopefully narrow things down a bit. I remember a system here in 2011 that looked good for 2-4" area wide and the vort went about 50-75 miles north the the morning of. We got a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Ukie total precip. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/precipitation-accumulation.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&type=PR&hi=024&hf=072&mode=latest&lang=en&map=na That's a max of about 0.1". Ratios ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Euro looked meh to me. Better to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 27 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Euro looked meh to me. It hasn't been too exciting overall. It does hint at some enhancement along the coast with the offshore low. Its not likely but maybe that could trend a bit better. Looks good for the immediate coast. Heck of a January for coastal DE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 48 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: It hasn't been too exciting overall. It does hint at some enhancement along the coast with the offshore low. Its not likely but maybe that could trend a bit better. Looks good for the immediate coast. Heck of a January for coastal DE. I'm loving it so far. That one storm alone gave us above our seasonal average, as I'm sure you well know. I personally wasn't expecting much from this one, but now it seems like we might have a shot at a inch or 2... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 4 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Why isn't this pinned yet? Randy, WxUSAF, MG, H2O, Bob? My god what's wrong with you people? Ha, I don't have pinning powers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 17 minutes ago, mappy said: Ha, I don't have pinning powers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 NAM is better here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Can't speak for everyone but I'll hug the 18z nam until something better comes along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Not a bad vort pass on the NAM. Solid shot for NoVa and CMD out to Winterwxluver territory. Jonjon will keep the powder going out in the hills to keep his beer cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Can't speak for everyone but I'll hug the 18z nam until something better comes along. Trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 congrats to those who ended up in the .25 qpf this run of the nam. I will enjoy my cartopper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Pretty good consensus now for a 1-2" swath generally through the central part of our region. Also some coastal enhancement hinted at on the Euro and now the NAM. Eastern DE and SNJ could jackpot- with 3" lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 It's very banded/burst-y on the NAM. If that's the actual look, then it'll have to be in the really short range to nail down the locations that get hit the hardest. Once again, the 4K and 3K are further south than the 12K, but both have adjusted north since the 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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