CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 I haven't seen todays 12Z Euro but last nights 00Z was a very nice run for the Northeast as a whole with the jackpot being SNE, lol, what else is new!! Anyway it looks like the band is taking shape in a nice orientation for KSYR if it stays this way which it won't, lol, and I can say that with certainty, as I've seen this one two many times. Looks good so far that's all I can say for now. Good luck to everybody in between KROC to Oswego. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 The other thing that it is , is super cold as I'm at 13f and with 850's approaching -20C, there will be extreme instability and a GB connection will mitigate the negative effects of meager moisture and we should not be affected by the Feb Sun angle, lol!, or diurnal effects. Its gonna come down to residence time of the band in 1 particular spot so we'll see. So far N-C Onondaga Cty looks prime for a few hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 If the trajectory of the band coming off Georgian Bay is any indication it appears aimed at Oswego Country. I think the band is going to be further north than originally progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 It will start there and drop south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: If the trajectory of the band coming off Georgian Bay is any indication it appears aimed at Oswego Country. I think the band is going to be further north than originally progged. I agree, but nonetheless, this band will be moving around quite a bit overnight, and fairly short lived. I think N. Onondaga Co. will get smacked a good bit between 12am and 3am, then it will settle south into SW Onondaga Co. A solid 3-6 inches for many....a few 8 or 9" totals for the higher hills W, SW, and S of SYR.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: If the trajectory of the band coming off Georgian Bay is any indication it appears aimed at Oswego Country. I think the band is going to be further north than originally progged. Nah, that's headed right for where its developing. It was never progged from any models to be anywhere near Oswego cty except for maybe the extreme southern part, where you are, but I can be wrong so lets see what happens. Either way you slice this event, Oswego County will be affected for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 minute ago, LakeEffectKing said: I agree, but nonetheless, this band will be moving around quite a bit overnight, and fairly short lived. I think N. Onondaga Co. will get smacked a good bit between 12am and 3am, then it will settle south into SW Onondaga Co. A solid 3-6 inches for many....a few 8 or 9" totals for the higher hills W, SW, and S of SYR.... The trajectory looks good to me but that won't last long, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Is anyone on this board under any of these returns as I'm wondering what the dendrites look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Nothing here with the initial returns. Should be snowing right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 U can throw out all models honestly lol Most models would be lucky to drop a trace in southern Oswego county, I mean go check out the latest hrrr.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Moderate snow falling in Liverpool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 10 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: U can throw out all models honestly lol Most models would be lucky to drop a trace in southern Oswego county, I mean go check out the latest hrrr.. Is it snowing in Fulton? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: U can throw out all models honestly lol Most models would be lucky to drop a trace in southern Oswego county, I mean go check out the latest hrrr.. Exactly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Moderate snow here in Hannibal also, very fine flake size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1st flakes just started.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Is it snowing in Fulton? Channel 9 doppler showing lighter returns in initial wave of snow. Yellows just in Northern Cayuga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Snowing in Phoenix. Mix of small and medium flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Starting to rock here. Flake size increasing quickly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Yup same here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Ggem may be the best les model we have lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 S+ for the past 1/2hr or so but haven't checked yet if there's any accumulation! Pounding snow here just north of Onondaga lake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Band starting to take shape north of roc drifting south now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 The band coming off GB is already sagging Southward and it should start seeding the band that has developed over the area. Looks like the RGEM nailed the position of this one so far but lets see how it develops and moves through the course of the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Just started snowing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 19 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Ggem may be the best les model we have lol 14 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: S+ for the past 1/2hr or so but haven't checked yet if there's any accumulation! Pounding snow here just north of Onondaga lake! Probably 1/2"-3/4" here in last 30-45 mins...right on border...decent flake size but a mix of smaller and large dendrites. Actually, let up for now, it's a bit cellular, comes and goes in intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said: The band coming off GB is already sagging Southward and it should start seeding the band that has developed over the area. Looks like the RGEM nailed the position of this one so far but lets see how it develops and moves through the course of the night. It's already seeding the band.....If you look at IR imagery you can see it.....what I think is more important is that there is a new plume connecting with L. Superior....it is on the northern shore of Geo. Bay which extends to the northern L. Ontario shore....it is what is just starting to generate upslope snows on the Tug.... If that can develop a bit (which no model shows) it should help to keep the main band over N. Onondaga county a bit longer. I think chances are increasing that the meso's of this morning, having this west of Onondaga county, are going to bust too far to the SW.....RGEM shows, what I think is a better placement... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Pouring snow with huge flakes right now, time for work..Enjoy the snow guys!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 BTW, NAM puts down about .65" of qpf for the Sunday event for a good chunk of W/C NYS, with LES behind it targeting areas getting hit now...continuing past the T+84 frame...with BUF area the jackpot!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: It's already seeding the band.....If you look at IR imagery you can see it.....what I think is more important is that there is a new plume connecting with L. Superior....it is on the northern shore of Geo. Bay which extends to the northern L. Ontario shore....it is what is just starting to generate upslope snows on the Tug.... If that can develop a bit (which no model shows) it should help to keep the main band over N. Onondaga county a bit longer. I think chances are increasing that the meso's of this morning, having this west of Onondaga county, are going to bust too far to the SW.....RGEM shows, what I think is a better placement... Now thats what I'm talking bout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Anyone have a 12z Euro clown map? Not sure if the one posted earlier was 0z or 12z. edit: NM it was 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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