CNY_WX Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Lake Effect Snow Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 351 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2017 NYZ018-036-100900- /O.UPG.KBGM.LE.A.0001.170210T0300Z-170210T1500Z/ /O.NEW.KBGM.LE.Y.0004.170210T0300Z-170210T1800Z/ Onondaga-Madison- Including the cities of...Syracuse...Hamilton...Oneida 351 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2017 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY... The National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued a Lake Effect Snow Advisory...which is in effect from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday. The Lake Effect Snow Watch is no longer in effect. * LOCATIONS...Onondaga... Madison Counties in New York. * HAZARD TYPES...Heavy snow. * ACCUMULATIONS...Snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches. * TIMING...Expect a band of lake effect snow, heavy at times, to set up near and to the south the Interstate 90 corridor late Thursday evening and persist through Thursday night before weakening Friday morning. * IMPACTS...The heavy snow will make travel very dangerous. Roads will become snow covered and slippery. Bitter wind chills may produce frostbite with prolonged exposure to the cold. * WINDS...Northwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. * TEMPERATURES...In the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Huge flakes coming down definitely lake fluff. May get a few inches before main show tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 4 to 7 inches for roc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Great discussion from kbuf. Some areas may get warning amounts tonight. Then the pattern gets stormy and possibly very white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Snowing hard now. Lake is over preforming. Huge flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Over six inches in two hours already where I am for the day in Guilderland, NY (near the UAlbany campus). Did not expect this kind of band this far NW, though I think the NAM was first to hint at it. Incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 hour ago, Stash said: Over six inches in two hours already where I am for the day in Guilderland, NY (near the UAlbany campus). Did not expect this kind of band this far NW, though I think the NAM was first to hint at it. Incredible That's awesome. When I woke up at 530a and checked the radar my eyes went right to the Scranton-albany corridor where that band was situated and figured there had to atleast be some 2"/hr rates in there if not 3". We are at 5.5 down here outside the KBGM site with about another 30-45 mins of steady light snow. Probably going to fall just short of 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 The snow has ended here, I just measured just under three quarters of an inch. I guess we'll have to take that as our snowstorm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 A solid 1" here N of the KSYR. Rockin it hard. I'd say the city of SYR picked up just a bit over my total, maybe 1.5 by calibrated eyeball. I went w/ NAM/WRF in the ne.wx snowfall contest and took a bit off qpf...tricky cuz some of the banding was shown to set up in between official contest stations...and NWP output is a bit approximate with such features, which matters if you're trying to 4cast for specific sites and not an area... Raining on Cape Cod. We'll see how those Blizz Warnings do. My buddy in SE CT reporting Thundersnow near Groton/Waterford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 About 3 inches here on East side of roc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 We may be on the verge of a epic Feb into March backend winter. Long range is chock full of potential. Looking to tonight I'd say 6 to 12 roc east to about sodus bay with a bullseye from Penfield to marion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: We may be on the verge of a epic Feb into March backend winter. Long range is chock full of potential. Looking to tonight I'd say 6 to 12 roc east to about sodus bay with a bullseye from Penfield to marion. Just wish this weekend's warmup wouldn't happen...would be nice to keep some snow on the ground this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2017 Author Share Posted February 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, tim123 said: We may be on the verge of a epic Feb into March backend winter. Long range is chock full of potential. Looking to tonight I'd say 6 to 12 roc east to about sodus bay with a bullseye from Penfield to marion. I'd wager on not an epic feb. below average snow and warmer than average. Where are you seeing this?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 All long range models are pointing to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Did you read buffalo's recent and for long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 13 minutes ago, vortmax said: Just wish this weekend's warmup wouldn't happen...would be nice to keep some snow on the ground this winter... I take that back, it looks like Sunday-Monday may be a very interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Someone in Monroe or Wayne County may get over a foot tonight. Interesting there are now advisories for sw ny were models were showing 1 inch of snow for today now 3 to 6. Same models been pinpointing roc east with 4 to 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Followed by a powerful clipper on Tuesday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 From now to end of March will be winter. And in a big way I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 14 minutes ago, tim123 said: All long range models are pointing to this. Long range has flipped around from the blowtorch end of Feb idea. Even Sunday may not be a rainout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 On 2/5/2017 at 2:20 PM, vortmax said: I'll take the split...it'll be just in time for a couple of big synoptic opportunities. Lots of teleconnections look good over the next few weeks: +PNA, -AO, -NOA, neutral EPO, and zone 8 MJO. Could be exciting for the end of Feb & early Mar... Most of the teleconnections argued against the CFS blowtorch over the past week or so...maybe it's starting to come around... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2017 Author Share Posted February 9, 2017 The air is not cold enough the next few weeks for LES. Without LES you won't get epic months in Upstate. Synoptic favors the SNE as I already stated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2017 Author Share Posted February 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2017 Author Share Posted February 9, 2017 EPIC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2017 Author Share Posted February 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2017 Author Share Posted February 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, vortmax said: You also stated that is would be warmer than normal. I don't see that happening. Epic? Maybe not, but with normal or below normal temps with lakes as warm as they are, I think we'll see some very decent LE (more than usual in the latter half of the season). Friday A chance of flurries before 7am, then a chance of snow showers between 7am and 3pm, then snow likely after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 27. West wind 8 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Saturday A slight chance of rain and snow showers before 8am, then a slight chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. West wind 11 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Sunday Rain. High near 47. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Monday A chance of snow showers before noon, then scattered flurries after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday Partly sunny, with a high near 36. Wednesday Scattered snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 40%. I would wager quite a bit Feb. ends above normal in temps. Most likely +2-3 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2017 Author Share Posted February 9, 2017 The most accurate long range model this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2017 Author Share Posted February 9, 2017 Once you hit March, lake effect is tough to come by, especially the 2nd 2 weeks due to diurnal influences. Big events are pretty rare historically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 I think you'll start to see the CFS change. I also think you'll see the latter half of the weekend and next week trending colder as well. Wager on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Great webcam link for Chatham MA....just switched to snow... http://www.thesquire.com/chatham-squire-main-street-webcam/?camstream=3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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