MAG5035 Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, Jmister said: It's time to start focusing on the observations and specifically current ptype. Does anyone have a good tool that shows who's reporting rain/snow/sleet? Highway cams are good too but I remember there was a site (maybe NWS?) that did this. The mPING app is probably what your thinking of where you can report your p-type and also other conditions. Speaking of highway cameras I can see snow flying on one of Maryland's I-68 cameras, at US 219 Keysers ridge. That ridge top is at about 2800 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Awesome, thanks guys. Looks like while the GFS is not quite as wrapped up as the NAM, it keeps things interesting especially in true central and north-central PA. I'm really not sure what to expect. That's why I'm keeping an eye on the changeover times/locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 10 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Nut, if you are ever on your way through town heading north let me know, I'll buy dinner. Pawatch we should anytime, would love to meet ya. Ever eat at Haha Chinese over in Wspt? I ate there over the summer when my father was in Wspt for 13 days for heart attack and then triple bypass/valve replacement. I now stop when seeing clients and when on way to cabin. I'd like that, and would like to see a forum GTG take some shape..... and yes, we could even do it in the summer. Youd have to message me though, cause i go into weatherboard hibernation over the summer Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 38 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I almost spit my drink.....had to look at timestamp. Is praying for weather related things to happen acceptable?? Nut Reminds me a lot of a March storm. Never know but the NAM would be ideal if right for snows in CPA and LSV tonight. Who knows at this point. But fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 16 minutes ago, Jmister said: It's time to start focusing on the observations and specifically current ptype. Does anyone have a good tool that shows who's reporting rain/snow/sleet? Highway cams are good too but I remember there was a site (maybe NWS?) that did this. you should start an OB's thread....just like the other forums..... We'd be cool for a day or 2 Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 I know it's nowcasting time, but 7.5" for unv on that latest gfs, wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 8 minutes ago, paweather said: Reminds me a lot of a March storm. Never know but the NAM would be ideal if right for snows in CPA and LSV tonight. Who knows at this point. But fun to watch. today is the 1 year anniversary of the NAM's biggest coup known to mankind ya know..... (I deleted my pics from the Blizz or i'd post one) Nut edited due to not knowing how to spell...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 We just got a full blown NAM'in.... Holy shnikeys..... Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Hi res HRRR showing CTP proper some loving too... Laurels right up the spine to NEPAville ish Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Hi res HRRR showing CTP proper some loving too... Laurels right up the spine to NEPAville ish Nut Yeah I noticed that the HRRR has just in the last few runs been keeping that heavier band of precip back in the central portion of the state. Previously it was lifting the precip out to the northeast. This will be an interesting 12-24 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 12 minutes ago, Jmister said: Yeah I noticed that the HRRR has just in the last few runs been keeping that heavier band of precip back in the central portion of the state. Previously it was lifting the precip out to the northeast. This will be an interesting 12-24 hours! Do you agree that due to wave spacing, that this one has time to sit and spin a little? Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 14 minutes ago, Jmister said: Yeah I noticed that the HRRR has just in the last few runs been keeping that heavier band of precip back in the central portion of the state. Previously it was lifting the precip out to the northeast. This will be an interesting 12-24 hours! with a storm of this size in addition to antecedent airmass, i'd think you'd need to be well inland to be "safe" on this one. Poconos can do ok, but i'd think Sullivan/Susquehanna counties would be best. Armenian Mts to Blossburg/Liberty/Mansfield Tioga might get a good rakin as well. Enhanced lift well inland gives them the nod IMHO. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 The GFS has some nice diffluence in the curved entrance region of the 250 mb jet streak NE of our region. You can see how the enhanced 850 mb frontogenesis into central and NE PA reflects this secondary circulation. 1000-850 mb critical thicknesses on the GFS are very close to 1300 m around UNV, the typical benchmark for a boundary layer profile cold enough for snow. It could be a very close call as to whether or not we can capitalize on some of these favorable dynamics in the form of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Judging by people at work, no one is expecting anything but rain, so could be a disaster if it's a switch for any amount of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 10 minutes ago, Jmister said: Yeah I noticed that the HRRR has just in the last few runs been keeping that heavier band of precip back in the central portion of the state. Previously it was lifting the precip out to the northeast. This will be an interesting 12-24 hours! It's going to be an interesting day for sure. The arrival of the heavier precip and best lift/dynamics later this afternoon is where we're going to see a changeover initiate or try to initiate in the State College region. Mesoanalysis already shows the pocket of <0ºC at 850mb from south central (Blair/Bedford/Somerset) down into western MD and the WV panhandle. Additionally the 850mb winds are already at 40-50knots over C-PA per mesoanalysis. Winds at 925mb have a more northeasterly component and you can see the colder air steadily trying to advect in from New England. CTP morning discussion once again mentioned thunder as a possibility. Given mid-level lapses of 7-7.5ºC/km lurking to the south I certainly could see that potential as the 500mb low moves toward PA. Latest HRRR definitely looks good for the central counties and it's not done by the end of the run either. Would def cut a bit from the 10-1 map cuz this is likely going to be a very sloppy wet snow, probably more of the 6-8:1 variety for most. I mostly agree with CTP's pretty reasonable snowmap except in the Laurel's region..they likely need headlines (at least advisories). The higher elevations there are going to be the first ones to turn over. Also noticed that the new HRRR was trying to hang some deform on the Sus Valley at the end of the run similar to the NAM. That's likely the route they would need to manage accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 18 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Do you agree that due to wave spacing, that this one has time to sit and spin a little? Nut I think the key to this is the orientation of the downstream ridge. The NAM is a little more amplified than the GFS so it stalls the northern movement more: I have to admit, I am not well versed at map analysis like this (focus in school and at work is computer science and data analysis) so if anyone else wants to chime go ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 Snowflakes visible on some of the Maryland CHART cameras on the I-70 corridor from Frederick west (I 70 W of 270 and the EB at St Paul Rd were the ones I saw). That's a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 34 minutes ago, Jmister said: I think the key to this is the orientation of the downstream ridge. The NAM is a little more amplified than the GFS so it stalls the northern movement more: I have to admit, I am not well versed at map analysis like this (focus in school and at work is computer science and data analysis) so if anyone else wants to chime go ahead! stop being so negative...:). (think tilt) Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: stop being so negative...:). (think tilt) But in this case, isn't negative being positive? Haha Just out with the dogs, still a misty rain in this part of State College. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Really chilly light rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Really chilly light rain here. Enjoy your dig out tomorrow. Honestly...what do you think you wake up to in the morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 39F and light rain. Have a pretty stiff breeze at times out of the northeast as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Enjoy your dig out tomorrow. Honestly...what do you think you wake up to in the morning? Tbh inch or so. I love your info maytown, why is it people are making this rain vs snow? Is good amount of sleet not possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 It's crazy windy here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 A cold rain. Story of my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 15 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Tbh inch or so. I love your info maytown, why is it people are making this rain vs snow? Is good amount of sleet not possible? Probably because most people on here find snow a wee bit more exciting than sleet. But yes, it seems like some areas might get a lot of pinging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 39 on car thermo when i went out for lunch. RAW RAW RAW.... Hoping for pingers and catpaws later tonight. 12z gives me a little hope (specially my new friends Nam3 Nam4 and their daddy 12kNAM. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 MU weather center is down to 35/35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 pingers all around DC (largely due to rates). Might get fun later this afternoon for us. Hope so. Pingers better than nada. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Just now, pasnownut said: pingers all around DC (largely due to rates). Might get fun later this afternoon for us. Hope so. Pingers better than nada. Nut Pingers in DC? WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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