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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Winter!

BuffaloWeather

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BGM Blizzard

BGM Blizzard

Posted
Posted

Not overly enthused about tonight/tomorrow synoptic system. From my own observations these types of setups don't usually bode well for accumulating snow on the front end and the models are usually too slow on the transition from snow to mixed precip. I think th NWS amounts of 3-6/4-7 in the Advisory areas will generally bust high. I forsee a general 1-3 with some isolated 3-6 amounts in the high terrain E of 81 (southern Dacks, Catskills etc.) before we flip to sleet and eventually liquid in most spots.

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WNash

WNash

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Awesome little surprise, theese are the best events. Not even an inch near Colvin and Delaware. Just flurries now too..

Really? From my camera at home it looks like 2-3 inches on the ground just a couple miles east, and still coming down pretty good.

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cny rider

cny rider

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Not overly enthused about tonight/tomorrow synoptic system. From my own observations these types of setups don't usually bode well for accumulating snow on the front end and the models are usually too slow on the transition from snow to mixed precip. I think th NWS amounts of 3-6/4-7 in the Advisory areas will generally bust high. I forsee a general 1-3 with some isolated 3-6 amounts in the high terrain E of 81 (southern Dacks, Catskills etc.) before we flip to sleet and eventually liquid in most spots.

I have the same sentiment about these systems in general.  It's only the extreme cold of this antecedent air mass that gives me any hope that this time will be different.

But if I had to bet I would say a mushy 3 inches in my area and raining by noon Saturday, with temps well into the 40's by Sunday morning.

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, WNash said:

Really? From my camera at home it looks like 2-3 inches on the ground just a couple miles east, and still coming down pretty good.

Right after I posted that it's been dumping snow. Prob close to 2" now. Just a couple miles east I know find better because for a good hour or two that band was literally just a mile or two South and a mile or two east of here.

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Buffalo Bumble

Buffalo Bumble

Posted
Posted

I corrected BUF's AFD from 11 AM for them: 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A peek at regional satellite and radar imagery this morning
indicates that the convergent lake effect band on Lake Erie is
continuing to hold together quite impressively, as synoptic flow in
the the in the lowest 5-6kft remains favorable to lake effect. This
band will be pushed north across Erie County over the next several
hours, in response to backing southerly flow as a surface high
passes to our south. Given the fairly robust structure of the band,
we should see a period of snowfall across the Buffalo metro during
the early to mid-afternoon hours, with snowfall rates of around a
half-inch 2-3 inches per hour, with total accumulations of up to 2 6 inches
possible. The band should fall apart stay intact as it moves into the
Northtowns/Niagara county this as the lake influence is diminished,
just in time for the afternoon commute.
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WNash

WNash

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

I corrected BUF's AFD from 11 AM for them: 



 

Hah! Here's their actual 3 PM AFD:

 

 

Quote

The Lake Erie lake effect band previously discussed continues to gradually make its way north across the Buffalo metro and has maintained its vigor as it has moved onshore, dropping several inches across the Buffalo metro over the last couple of hours. The good news is that this band is finally moving entirely onshore across the Niagara peninsula, and should weaken over the next hour or two as it loses its overwater fetch.

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DeltaT13

DeltaT13

Posted
Posted

I don't think this even needs to be verbalized.  Events like tonight are just plain ****ty.  From start to finish it is completely useless.  They underperform, turn over quick, and everything added melts fast.  It was nice while it lasted.   

1 hour ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Not overly enthused about tonight/tomorrow synoptic system. From my own observations these types of setups don't usually bode well for accumulating snow on the front end and the models are usually too slow on the transition from snow to mixed precip. I think th NWS amounts of 3-6/4-7 in the Advisory areas will generally bust high. I forsee a general 1-3 with some isolated 3-6 amounts in the high terrain E of 81 (southern Dacks, Catskills etc.) before we flip to sleet and eventually liquid in most spots.

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DeltaT13

DeltaT13

Posted
Posted

Heres a funny one.  Buffalo really likes to buck the system sometimes.  Look at the solid continuity across the entire great lakes, mid atlantic, and Northeast....except in WNY where buffalo doesnt feel that this event warrants a standard WWA.  I mean solely from a continuity standpoint they should just add those few counties.  Good grief.  

Picture1.png

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Heres a funny one.  Buffalo really likes to buck the system sometimes.  Look at the solid continuity across the entire great lakes, mid atlantic, and Northeast....except in WNY where buffalo doesnt feel that this event warrants a standard WWA.  I mean solely from a continuity standpoint they should just add those few counties.  Good grief.  

Picture1.png

Only Oswego County warrants an Advisory, lol, give me a break.  Makes absolutely no sense as,  even Canada's Ontario province is under advisories, lol.  They'll add em later!

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted

Yeah it puts a damper on the current mood but I guess losing an inch or 2 from temps approaching 40 isn't as bad as a full blown torch that wipes out everything kind of like what happened in November here in Syracuse.  It was gone in 2 days close to 30".  That's why I absolutely hate early season snows because it not like its gonna hang around or anything like that.  Unless you just like the site of falling snow, there's no purpose.  I wanna build a glacier in the Winter.  I don't even plow,lol, unless its absolutely necessary!

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted

If we happen to pull off a couple inches before the slop commences, I will be extremely surprised, but whatever does happen won't be a surprise as we've seen this kind of bull**** set-up before.  it kills me to know that if this POS system would of tracked 50 miles further East, we would have stayed all frozen, but no, lets just obliterate whatever snow that fell thus far in the month of December in a matter of 18hrs because the possibility exists to actually see a couple 50's before the front barrels through the area on Sunday, before we see a flash freeze as temps tumble into the 20's within a few hrs. DISGUSTING IS WHAT IT IS!!

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted

Tonights snow is gonna be of the sand variety, lol, as we'll be lucky if there's sufficient moisture within the snow growth which is quite high.  However, it starts out quite low but as WAA kicks in it rises quite rapidly.  We probably have a 4-5 hr window for the snow to accumulate otherwise IDK.

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