powderfreak Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah probably good spill over into Stowe itself with the strong winds. How are the soundings? There might be a little warm air (relatively speaking) above 800 with the TROWAL wrapping around. There is some insane low level UVVs along the mountains but yeah I agree the strong wind flow and deep layer flow argues for some accumulations quite a bit downstream of the Spine, especially during the day with more west slope at night. The possible WAA aloft wrapping around may help too...if that happens I've seen where that WAA from the maritimes reinvigorates the set up...almost seeder feeder style with cold upslope occurring lower and WAA aloft. Adk and I were just chatting about how these early season (or late season) often seem to organize better at night into a congealed band over the terrain...Adk said GFS was showing -36 UVVs on Sunday night and temps for snow growth look good. That could rip 1-3"/hr if the ratios get up there. During the daytime, stuff often goes more convective showery and that's when you can get real good downwind spillover...then maybe reorganize for Monday night with the nocturnal inversion developing. Another thing to watch is Sunday daytime...that is looking like a rain to heavy wet snow scenario as the surface low develops over eastern New England. The Catskills, Berks/Taconics, and Greens all look to get some dynamic wet paste for a time after maybe a little initial rain. 850s and 925 temps down to the SFC almost go isothermal and models are spitting out some decent lift. This is all prior to the upslope but maybe Advisory level snows there alone, especially over 1000ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Interesting about daytime vs nighttime. Makes sense though as you'll get the inversion heights to rise during day and lower at night. This could be a great week through T-Day weekend. 4 day weekend for me that time...tempting to come up and play..haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: RPM wants the Tolland green white. Yeah I liked what you and Ryan were discussing with high rh and the trowel wrap. Gonna be a lot of surprised folks east of the Berks who think it's not going to whiten things up with a few spots 1-2 inches under a good squall/streamer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Interesting about daytime vs nighttime. Makes sense though as you'll get the inversion heights to rise during day and lower at night. This could be a great week through T-Day weekend. 4 day weekend for me that time...tempting to come up and play..haha. Yeah I feel like we see it with lake effect as well...you know how daytime it can be all popcorn and instability looking cellular stuff, then at night you see the real bands get going sometimes. And it's often daytime when people like Gene or Brian in NH will get blowover from VT...some of that stuff survives pretty far downwind during the day. You guys would probably know the met reasons more (inversion or slightly better instability or differential heating?) but it just seems during the day, those down wind of the mountains stand a better chance at seeing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 38 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah I feel like we see it with lake effect as well...you know how daytime it can be all popcorn and instability looking cellular stuff, then at night you see the real bands get going sometimes. And it's often daytime when people like Gene or Brian in NH will get blowover from VT...some of that stuff survives pretty far downwind during the day. You guys would probably know the met reasons more (inversion or slightly better instability or differential heating?) but it just seems during the day, those down wind of the mountains stand a better chance at seeing something. The LL lapse rates improve during the day so you can sustain squalls a little better. Anything to help prolong the lift a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 12z EURO backed off a little bit but still solid event. Not much change, just subtle shift west which puts better moist NW flow in upstate NY at first until it meanders east. Still delivers around an inch of QPF for snow at the ski resorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Great piece from Ryan here. Great stuff.. bottom line .. we snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Looks WIT there. Wet In Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks WIT there. Wet In Tolland. Maybe you should read it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 59 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah I feel like we see it with lake effect as well...you know how daytime it can be all popcorn and instability looking cellular stuff, then at night you see the real bands get going sometimes. And it's often daytime when people like Gene or Brian in NH will get blowover from VT...some of that stuff survives pretty far downwind during the day. You guys would probably know the met reasons more (inversion or slightly better instability or differential heating?) but it just seems during the day, those down wind of the mountains stand a better chance at seeing something. That night stuff is intriguing, although not prime upslope territory where I am comparatively speaking to NVT, most of the substantial (which is like 3-6" in the valley down here) usplope events I have seen in the 2 winters here were all overnight and never understood why. 2 biggest events last year were overnight upslope. A bunch in 2014-15 also. Anyway ALY thinking 6-8" through higher el through Mon AM and maybe a few inches for lower valley spots in the southern greens which I would gladly take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2016 Author Share Posted November 18, 2016 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Maybe you should read it We are days ahead here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: We are days ahead here Days and days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 BTV's first stab is for 12-18" Bolton/Stowe/Smuggs/Jay.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 First Winter Storm Watch of the season. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 239 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2016 VTZ003-006-008-016>019-191000- /O.NEW.KBTV.WS.A.0003.161120T1200Z-161122T0000Z/ ORLEANS-LAMOILLE-WASHINGTON-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN- EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF NEWPORT, JOHNSON, STOWE, MONTPELIER, ENOSBURG FALLS, RICHFORD, UNDERHILL, BRISTOL, RIPTON, EAST WALLINGFORD, AND KILLINGTON 239 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2016 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...CENTRAL VERMONT AND WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS * HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. * MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR. * TIMING...THIS WILL BE A LONG DURATION EVENT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SUNDAY MORNING, WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET LIKELY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO THE VALLEY FLOORS BY SUNDAY EVENING, WITH PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. * IMPACTS...DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATION POINTS. A SLOW COMMUTE IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE MONDAY MORNING. * WINDS...WEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S ON SUNDAY, AND GENERALLY HOLDING IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2016 Author Share Posted November 18, 2016 Getting in meso territory now and getting more impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 3 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said: That night stuff is intriguing, although not prime upslope territory where I am comparatively speaking to NVT, most of the substantial (which is like 3-6" in the valley down here) usplope events I have seen in the 2 winters here were all overnight and never understood why. 2 biggest events last year were overnight upslope. A bunch in 2014-15 also. Anyway ALY thinking 6-8" through higher el through Mon AM and maybe a few inches for lower valley spots in the southern greens which I would gladly take. I think they are a little optimistic for the valleys. Probably more like a dusting-1" in Albany. We rarely get decent accumulations in these scenarios unless some snow squalls sneak down the Mohawk Valley. It's hard when you are near sea level and everything to your northwest is uphill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 18z GFS another big hit. Textbook QPF signal every 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Whats up with the massive snow signal in the St. Lawrence valley just NW of the Adirondacks? I mean, there's a nice TROWAL wrapped right around into them, but these 2"+ of QPF there seem kind of weird. I could get it for some of the upslope places to the southeast, but there's big QPF in the valley too on these runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Whats up with the massive snow signal in the St. Lawrence valley just NW of the Adirondacks? I mean, there's a nice TROWAL wrapped right around into them, but these 2"+ of QPF there seem kind of weird. I could get it for some of the upslope places to the southeast, but there's big QPF in the valley too on these runs. I've been trying to figure that out too. I wonder if model resolution or if it's picking up on a blocked flow and backing the QPF upstream? Ive never seen the valley (like MSS) get significant snow from an orographic event. The speed of the flow also makes me think if anything the snow band might work downstream more than upstream into the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: I've been trying to figure that out too. I wonder if model resolution or if it's picking up on a blocked flow and backing the QPF upstream? Ive never seen the valley (like MSS) get significant snow from an orographic event. The speed of the flow also makes me think if anything the snow band might work downstream more than upstream into the valley. It'll be interesting to watch. I def think they'll get like 6"+ because of the synoptic TROWAL, but I'd be skeptical of these 20"+ amounts the GFS is throwing out at them, lol. I'd expect higher amounts more toward SLK obviously once you push that air up nearly 2,000 feet. It should be a "fun" upslope event to follow even for those of us not in it because there's a ton of synoptic moisture wrapped around the back side...so it won't just be confined to really narrow areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 All of us are going to see snow as Ryan discussed in his blog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: All of us are going to see snow as Ryan discussed in his blog Flakes probably...not many in our area will see any accumulation...maybe a bit of whitening in a few of the steadier scattered snow showers. Hopefully someone gets lucky with a rogue lake streamer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: BTV's first stab is for 12-18" Bolton/Stowe/Smuggs/Jay.... That's a large area of 12 to 18 over the northern dacks not so sure about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2016 Author Share Posted November 19, 2016 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2016 Author Share Posted November 19, 2016 We squall , over me heiny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 That's pretty weak sauce lapse rates below about 600mb on that sounding for my liking on good squalls. I think they are better looking at around the 45-48 hour mark which would be late Sunday afternoon into evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2016 Author Share Posted November 19, 2016 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That's pretty weak sauce lapse rates below about 600mb on that sounding for my liking on good squalls. I think they are better looking at around the 45-48 hour mark which would be late Sunday afternoon into evening TTs are weak but RH is decent along with some instability . Not a windex signal but wouldn't surprise me if the atmosphere squeezed out the limited moisture with a coating as the secondary Arctic boundary roars east . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Enjoy that PF. Hopefully a sign of the season to come. I'll take whatever I can get (even if I'm not home to enjoy it): ...ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES... RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW BETWEEN 1 AND 4 AM SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. A BRIEF BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE, BUT IT WILL NOT LAST LONG AND SHOULD BE OVER BY 7 OR 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING. A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH LOCALIZED 3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION. MOTORISTS PLANNING TRAVEL ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND SLIPPERY TRAVEL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Is there a flow where Jspin does not do as well as PFs condo location or is he in pure weeenieville. I'm interested to see if PF can pull WSW at his place, because I'm sure Jspin will. Enjoy the event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Is there a flow where Jspin does not do as well as PFs condo location or is he in pure weeenieville. I'm interested to see if PF can pull WSW at his place, because I'm sure Jspin will. Enjoy the event! Irrespective of Froude Numbers, it feels like situations where the flow is directly from the north tend to be a bit weaker here. Flow directly from the north is of course not as optimal for any of us in this immediate area relative to northwest, but I’m not sure how direct north flow plays out for PF at his location. It may be somewhat of a subtlety since we seem to do OK from a lot of directions, but I’ll let PF speak to what he’s observed for our locations when he’s been paying attention to the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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