olafminesaw Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: Wow, that is some heavy snow the HRRR is picking up on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 GFS is much colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Now if GFS was correct I would say we would need one.If that were to verify, absolutely.Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Almost 7 on the gfs. Gonna be curious to see how fast we change over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, Rd9108 said: Almost 7 on the gfs. Gonna be curious to see how fast we change over. I'd take off a couple inches of melting/low ratios. I'm trying to decide whether to stay up for the changeover, or get up early for the tail end, it's a tough call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: I'd take off a couple inches of melting/low ratios. I'm trying to decide whether to stay up for the changeover, or get up early for the tail end, it's a tough call. When's the start time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: When's the start time? Sometime between 11 and 1, ending around 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 Based on everything I am seeing this morning by this afternoon you will see the WWA be shifted southwest. Alleg Co. should at least be upgraded to 2-4, 3-5 and with it coming overnight it will be a threat to morning rush hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Jackpot for precip i Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, colonel717 said: Jackpot for precip i This is glorious. Like everyone has been saying, the temps and the change over time is not key. The later it starts, the cooler the temps will be. Lets hope it starts later in the evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 We may miss wave 3 but then there's another right behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 6+ Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, colonel717 said: 6+ Tuesday Wouldn't be upset at that but damn the coast is looking down the barrel of a possible beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I'm still bearish on tonight's event for the southern zones (say south of Washington). I'm guessing in Greene/Mon counties we are going to have rain for a little while at the onset, and the GFS may still be overdoing the precip amounts based on the setup. Anything over an inch locally would be a surprise to me. If the events next week end up being Miller B systems, then chances are good we'll miss the best stuff. We're too far West to get good influence from a true Miller B unless it is absolutely huge, but development is almost always too late and too far East for us to really benefit. We really need a Miller A or something more southern-stream dominant for a bigger event. As of right now it looks like all these storms are northern stream only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Though swift in its eastward progression, the aforementioned shortwave has the potential to produce significant snow amounts tonight into Friday morning. This scenario is supported by favorable mid and upper level dynamics with a coupled jet streak progged to set up over the region, and this feature will be accompanied by moderate to strong low and mid level convergence. Of course, highest the amounts of snow would be where the strongest frontogenesis develops; but this is also predicated on the timing of the colder air sinking down from the north. The thermal profile will obviously have a huge effect on what type of precipitation falls and whether that will line up with the previously mentioned synoptic and mesoscale features. Initially, most of the atmospheric energy will be used to cool the lower atmosphere as a 2000 to 3000ft warm layer will be in place across much of the region. The ultimate outcome will depend on how strong and fast dynamic cooling takes place and how much QPF the system is able to produce. This is also a place to hedge our bets, as these synoptic setups often lead to models over forecasting QPF. Models have been somewhat consistent in the outcome of rain changing over to snow, leading to accumulations. Will use a blend of HPC/RFC QPF for the forecast and also a blend of thermal profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Thru 204 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, colonel717 said: Thru 204 hr Lol I'm hearing people say winters over and I even argued with a guy about tonight's snow. People are in for a rude awakening if this verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 Posting this just because it is fun to look at March 9th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Lol I'm hearing people say winters over and I even argued with a guy about tonight's snow. People are in for a rude awakening if this verifies. I am all of a sudden having people in my office ask me if it really will snow tonight. What? how can it snow... I am telling them expect 2 inches but could be up to 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, colonel717 said: I am all of a sudden having people in my office ask me if it really will snow tonight. What? how can it snow... I am telling them expect 2 inches but could be up to 6 inches. Where has psunate been? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 33 minutes ago, colonel717 said: 6+ Tuesday For Tuesday we may have to rely on the Northern stream piece for any snow if the low is going to be out over the coast. UKMET is a coastal huger it looks like, we need the phase to happen much quicker and or the northern stream to speed up or southern to slow down. Sooner that happens the further west I think it would track. Either way, its going to take resolving Sundays storm to really get any concrete ideas, but we have tonight storm to focus on anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Forgot to add I think we have a domino effect in place that will change all outcomes down the line. Each successive wave can rob energy from the one preceding and following it. Right now the GFS shows a huge bomb for what is presently Wave 3 but I don't buy it based on the look. A shortwave coming out of the Midwest basically merges with the coastal low, which is actually Wave 2 that has hung around and somehow gets pulled up the coast. There might be a 50/50 low in place but I think by the time Wave 3 comes around, that's gone. Stronger Wave 2 means weaker Wave 3. Perhaps no energy transfer at all and just a bowling ball effect. I think the GFS outcome at this time is wonky. We should certainly know more based on what happens with Wave 1 tonight and Wave 2 Sunday. A stronger Wave 1 may actually benefit Wave 3 for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Even though the HRRR has some pretty heavy snow, especially south, it's a pretty short lived event. I'm afraid that the discussion is correct about the models overdoing QPF. I'll give it a few more cycles before lowering my expectations though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Ukie looks to be the most inland track. Takes it from Gulf to Delaware to Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Feel like 2-4" is a good bet for event #1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Crushing Pgh area 1am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Euros warm but who cares at this point. Whatever happens happens and that upward motion field looks insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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