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Pittsburgh PA Winter 2016-2017


north pgh

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13 minutes ago, dj3 said:

When does the 12z para come out? Wonder if it is going to move south with the weekend event as well.

There really is no constant when Para comes out.  Just have to keep checking the site to see if updated.  It will come out after 18z GFS though. 

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WPC

 

MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH/VORTEX AS IT SINKS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST ON FRIDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING INTO A LITTLE BIT BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM BUT THE LATEST GFS RUN IS STILL SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...SHOWING MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BY 12Z SATURDAY COMPARED TO RIDGING FROM THE 00Z ECMWF. BY SUNDAY...THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD REGARDING POTENTIAL CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO THE GREAT PLAINS. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WHICH RESULTS IN A LITTLE BIT DEEPER SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOMEWHERE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE LOW IS STILL IN QUESTION BUT THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF DID SHIFT FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW TRACKING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WHICH IS NOW CLOSER TO THE LATEST GFS. BUT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IS NOT GOOD AND THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES SO CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS PLAYS OUT IS LOW...AT BEST. ONCE AGAIN...STAYED CLOSE TO CONTINUITY TRENDING TOWARDS A MOSTLY ENSEMBLES BLEND BY DAY 5/6 AND ALL ENSEMBLES BY DAY 7.

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2 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

The admin on USAwx is basically calling this off. I've seen huge changes 2 days out let alone 5 days. We've been screwed a day out before. Gotta stay tuned to the 0z models. 

Calling it off for NYC and north.  He's a drama queen, baby.  I cant take him anymore. It was better when he quit posting for couple days.

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53 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

Too far south.  Still workable

Still gotta keep a close eye on it, but 18z looks to be a touch South, especially for wave one. It would be a fitting end to this lousy winter if we miss these 2 storms to the South then the next one cuts NW lol. That block and extension of the PV look to really flex there muscle right as the storm is trying to gain some latitude. I wonder if it would help if wave 1 just went away and wave 2 trended stronger at this point.

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