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Met Winter 2016-17 Banter

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7 minutes ago, Squid1225 said:

you just got to laugh at the weather channel....breaking news, they named the storm Stella and the storm hasn't even developed yet. Such a crappy commercialized way to draw viewers...Such a joke

Yesterday's storm was Reggie

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You knew something like this was bound to happen with spring arriving a record 2-3 weeks ahead of schedule. Tough time to be in the agricultural community with weather extremes becoming the new normal.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Louisville KY
319 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2017

...SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN
INDIANA...

.Temperatures dropping into the 20s this morning and again
tonight into Sunday morning could cause significant damage to
several species of fruit trees and other early crops getting a
head start in the growing season. Cold temperatures will continue
for much of next week. Lows may even dip into the teens Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning.

six-leaf-index-anomaly.thumb.png.4b5601cd25027ae96e2be19e117d755b.png

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EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR 13 THRU 15 MAR 2017
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...NCEP...NWS...WASHINGTON DC
2:27 PM EST FRI MAR 10...POSTHUMOUS VERSION.

POTENTIALLY SERIOUS E COAST STORM STARTING LATE ON DAY 3 (MON).

THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG COASTAL WINDS CONTINUES FOR THE
MID-ATLANTIC..

...MODEL OVERVIEW AND DISCUSSION...

WE NOW HAVE HIGHER CERTAINTY THAT THERE WILL INDEED BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR STORM ALONG THE EAST COAST...MAYBE EVEN A
BLIZZARD...IN THE DAY 2-3 PERIOD.

THE VERY STRONG BLOCK NW OVER THE SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAIT WILL DRIFT
WESTWARD AND WEAKEN SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT DAYS...BUT CONTROL THE
WEATHER OVER NOAM THE ENTIRE TIME.

CONCERNING THE EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS...MODELS ARE GROUPED INTO
THREE SCHOOLS OF THOUGHT. THE ECMWF HAS NOW JOINED THE OTHERS

 IN FORECASTING STRONG CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF CAP HATTERAS IN
THE 60-72 HOUR PERIOD...POSSIBLY EVEN A SNOWSTORM OF HISTORICAL
PROPORTIONS FOR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE MIDDLE SCHOOL IS PORTRAYED BY THE CANADIAN WHICH DROPS A COLD
VORTEX SOUTHWARD ACROSS WV INTO NC DAYS 3-4. WHILE IT STILL HAS ITS
MAIN SURFACE STORM FAR OUT AT SEA...IT IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR AT 500
MILLIBARS TO THE LATEST GFS RUN THAT DOES INDEED SHOW AN
INTENSIFYING STORM.

LAST NIGHTS UKMET AND MODEL ENSEMBLE DATA ARE IN THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE SCHOOL. THEY ARE CONSISTENT IN SLOWLY MOVING A DEEP
COLD VORTEX ACROSS THE ERN LAKES DAY 3. THEIR SOLUTIONS SUPPRESS
STRONG SYS MOVING ACROSS THE SERN STATES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT
HEAVY PCPN DOES NOT GET INTO NYC AND NEW ENG SUN-TUE. UNTIL
TODAY...THE CANADIAN MODEL WAS MORE LIKE THE NOGAPS.

WHEN WE PUT EVERYTHING TOGETHER...THE NEW GFS RUN HAS ACTUALLY
REINFORCED THE COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS SCENARIO. THE 60HOUR ETA HAS
TRENDED FARTHER NORTH THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN AND SHOWS SIGNIFICANT
SNOW FOR THE MID ATLANTIC SUN. WHAT COULD MAKE THIS A HISTORICAL
STORM IS THAT THE VERY COLD DEEP VORTEX OVER NORTHERN MAINE IS
FORECAST BY THE MRF/AVN/ECMWF/NOGAPS TO MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD
INTO THE EASTERN LAKES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...THEN MAKE A SHARP
LEFT TURN SOUTHWARD INTO OHIO DAY 3 WHILE EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING
OCCURS EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. THE CLOSEST ANALOG TO THIS IS AT 500
MILLIBARS IS THE BLIZZARD OF JAN 29-30 1966. THE FEB 6 1978 CASE...WHICH
BURIED SOUTHERN NEW ENG/NYC/EASTERN PA...IS A CLOSE SECOND. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 1978 AND THE 1966 CASES IS THAT THE MAIN VORT
ENERGY ALOFT DROPPED SOUTHEAST AND CLOSED OFF OVER THE DELMARVA
REGION IN 1978 RATHER THAN TURNING SOUTH AFTER A WESTWARD TREK
ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE SEAWAY(1966). THERE IS MINUS 40C AIR AT 500
MILLIBARS IN THE VORTEX OVER NORTHERN MAINE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A TREMENDOUS SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE CONUS.
THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE OF HEAVY PCPN...COUPLED WITH DE-
STABILIZATION AS VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT REACH THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...COULD GENERATE A VERY POWERFUL STORM SUN NIGHT INTO TUE FOR
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AREAS. WE FEEL THAT THE
AVN SCENARIO IS BASICALLY CORRECT. EAST COAST...WATCH OUT!

...EAST COAST STATES...

USING THE AVN AS OUR MAIN TOOL...WE LOOK FOR HEAVY SNOW SUN NIGHT
INTO MON OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTS.
THERE MAY BE BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING...ALONG WITH WINDS
EXCEEDING GALE FORCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FARTHER INLAND
..MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM VA THRU THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW ENGLAND. LOW WIND CHILLS WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE HIGH TEENS TO MID 20'S. THERE COULD EVEN BE
THUNDERSNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY EXCEED A FOOT FROM
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA NORTHEASTWARD THRU THE MAJOR
METROPOLITAN AREAS. THE AVN HAS TARGETED NJ AS AN AREA WHERE AS
MUCH AS TWO FEET COULD FALL. THE BACK EDGE OF SNOWFALL FROM WV
INTO ERN OH WILL BE SHARP AND A FUNCTION OF WHERE THE UPPER SHEAR
AXIS SETS UP. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST.

FARTHER SOUTH...VERY COLD AND WINDY WITH HARD FREEZES POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION AND MUCH OF FL.

FOR TUE (DAY 4)... SNOW GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF OVER THE SRN NEW
ENG/MID ATLANTIC AREAS. COLD AND WINDY WITH LOW WIND CHILLS AND
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. WINDY AND COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
EVEN INTO WED (DAY 5) AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. CONTINUED COLD WITH HARD FREEZES IN NRN FL AND THE GULF
COAST REGION.

ANOTHER STORM IS DEPICTED FOR THE SOUTHEAST STATES DAYS 6-7 WITH THE
EAST REMAINING VERY COLD.

 

http://www.northshorewx.com/climatedata/PNSOKX20010307.htm

 

http://www.northshorewx.com/HPC20010302.asp

 

http://www.northshorewx.com/20010305.asp

 

:)

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I kind of hate events like this, when the threat is so huge at first that the whole board turns negative when it verifies lower.  More fun when we are thinking 3-6 this far out, then it starts looking 4-8.. then oh man could it be 12?  12-16 ???   This is a setup for "Storm cancel, I'm only getting 13 inches"

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2 minutes ago, Breene said:

I kind of hate events like this, when the threat is so huge at first that the whole board turns negative when it verifies lower.  More fun when we are thinking 3-6 this far out, then it starts looking 4-8.. then oh man could it be 12?  12-16 ???   This is a setup for "Storm cancel, I'm only getting 13 inches"

True. But I'll be thrilled with a foot. Unless LI gets 18"

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1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

True. But I'll be thrilled with a foot. Unless LI gets 18"

I want everyone to get exactly 14.375" so it pisses rob off.

 

except rjay. I hope he gets drizzle and winds that cant even topple a garbage can. 

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12 GFS took me from a historic storm to a rather average storm....talk about a buzz kill. Going to drink extra high potent beer today as a result.

 

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3 minutes ago, Animal said:

12 GFS took me from a historic storm to a rather average storm....talk about a buzz kill. Going to drink extra high potent beer today as a result.

 

For March 14th though!

pretend that you were expecting a sunny 47 degree day

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7 minutes ago, Animal said:

12 GFS took me from a historic storm to a rather average storm....talk about a buzz kill. Going to drink extra high potent beer today as a result.

 

I think the interior will be fine. Ratios and higher qpf than the gfs shows. The coast still has more to worry about with regards to potential mixing. Someone from the LHV back to the poconos probably jackpots and of course eastern LI as the low winds up off shore

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8 minutes ago, Breene said:

For March 14th though!

pretend that you were expecting a sunny 47 degree day

We've really become spoiled though. I remember the day before the 93 blizzard, forecasts were for 6-12" and people were going nuts. It was our biggest storm in at least 6 years if not a decade and with the winds and coastal flooding it was crazy. People don't look back at that storm as fondly because 96 blew it out of the water just 3 years later and now those types of storms have become so commonplace

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Would someone be good enough to put the Snow map for the GFS here please? Also, is the GEFS coming out in the next 20 minutes ( I think?)

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3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

We've really become spoiled though. I remember the day before the 93 blizzard, forecasts were for 6-12" and people were going nuts. It was our biggest storm in at least 6 years if not a decade and with the winds and coastal flooding it was crazy. People don't look back at that storm as fondly because 96 blew it out of the water just 3 years later and now those types of storms have become so commonplace

I stayed up for every single second of that 93 beauty, by the time the very heavy sleet ended around 4p in my neck of the woods, the foot of snow which fell in about 6 hours was encased in a tomb of ice. It was brilliant except for the promise of 4-8 inches of backend snow which never materialized

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3 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said:

Would someone be good enough to put the Snow map for the GFS here please? Also, is the GEFS coming out in the next 20 minutes ( I think?)

Njwx85 comes here and acts like a boss but look what he said just last week on 3/3/17 now I don't trust that guy whatsoever also known as yanksfan. Lmao what a joke that guy is!

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IMG_1650.PNG

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Just now, nyblizz44 said:

I stayed up for every single second of that 93 beauty, by the time the very heavy sleet ended around 4p in my neck of the woods, the foot of snow which fell in about 6 hours was encased in a tomb of ice. It was brilliant except for the promise of 4-8 inches of backend snow which never materialized

We did get a couple inches of backend out here early Sunday morning. Didn't go back to school until Wednesday because it was so difficult to remove the snow. We had a little snow after that too before spring finally arrived

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2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

March 14th in the HV is not late in the game for a storm like this. If it was the first week in April then you'd have an argument.  

Was about to say the same thing. Snow in March is not a rarity up here. I think people still forget its still winter

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Just now, snywx said:

Was about to say the same thing. Snow in March is not a rarity up here. I think people still forget its still winter

Yeah big difference between now and say 2 to 3 weeks from now

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2 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

 

IMG_1630.PNG

IMG_1650.PNG

FEEN, I didn't believe it when you said that.  But kudos my friend if this works out

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2 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

FEEN, I didn't believe it when you said that.  But kudos my friend if this works out

That map will not make many happy considering expectations. I've had anywhere from 8 to 38 inches of snow on different models in the last 24 hours. That's when you know it's time to step away.  

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4 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

That map will not make many happy considering expectations. I've had anywhere from 8 to 38 inches of snow on different models in the last 24 hours. That's when you know it's time to step away.  

I agree.  Today is Saturday so I'm not going to be on here much.  It works out better that way.

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