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2016 Mountains & Foothills Fall & Winter Thread


nchighcountrywx
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21 minutes ago, Rainforrest said:

Ended up with 4.89 inches. Hopefully this weekend and next week will bring more of the same. 

Glad to hear that!  Rainfall totals were pretty weak here per airport data (my rain gauge not functioning at the moment; didn't think I needed it anymore:wacko:)  Your totals lead me to believe the Pinnacle Mountain fire received a good soaking.

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Very tough call for this weekend regarding snowfall especially below 3500'. Need a few more model runs to really get a feel for how the column will look above WNC. Retreating CAD looks to keep 700mb temps below freezing, but those flakes will have to fall through 2000'-3000' of above freezing temps to reach the ground as snow. SW NC looks boiling so I am not optimistic unless you are above 5000'. Boone area stands the best chance to see snowflakes, but will struggle to see accumulation with meager rates. Above 4500' north of Mt Mitchell looks to see accumulation on grassy surfaces. Still way to early for any of this to be set in stone and 1-2 degree difference from what the models show could give many a surprise. I think we need 2-3 more Euro runs to get a true picture of the situation. BTW is the ecm a new model or something? :)


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Yeah I was never impressed with this weekends snow chances. I am more impressed with getting more rain in here though. We really need the rain over snow at this point. I think the Boone area stands a better chance of seeing some early onset snow but I'm excited about more rain coming in. Rain total in my area was 3.72 inches. A nice total and it even bumped up the rivers a bit. More rain, more rain!

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1 hour ago, Hvward said:

Very tough call for this weekend regarding snowfall especially below 3500'. Need a few more model runs to really get a feel for how the column will look above WNC. Retreating CAD looks to keep 700mb temps below freezing, but those flakes will have to fall through 2000'-3000' of above freezing temps to reach the ground as snow. SW NC looks boiling so I am not optimistic unless you are above 5000'. Boone area stands the best chance to see snowflakes, but will struggle to see accumulation with meager rates. Above 4500' north of Mt Mitchell looks to see accumulation on grassy surfaces. Still way to early for any of this to be set in stone and 1-2 degree difference from what the models show could give many a surprise. I think we need 2-3 more Euro runs to get a true picture of the situation. BTW is the ecm a new model or something? :)


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Good stuff!

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20 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Uh. the entire southeast, except for Florida is at or below freezing next friday lol. 

Yeah I was looking at that. It looks like a big portion if the mountains may not get out of the 20s for high and lows possible in the single digits. Already looking way better than last December horrible fest.

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3 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah I was looking at that. It looks like a big portion if the mountains may not get out of the 20s for high and lows possible in the single digits. Already looking way better than last December horrible fest.

If this scenario were to play out, the odds of increased winds is very likely. So in the mountains especially, wind chills could be a big concern. Could be the first time the air could feel around 0 degrees. 

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On 11/30/2016 at 7:49 AM, SnoJoe said:

Picked up .72 with the first storm. Hoping for another half inch today if it can make it over the mountains. Ray mentioned something about the coldest air of the season coming in late next week. Be nice to see. Doesn't really feel like the Holiday season weather wise right now.

Good call Man. You picked up .52. You've become quite the forecaster.

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On 12/1/2016 at 11:04 AM, Met1985 said:

Yeah I was never impressed with this weekends snow chances. I am more impressed with getting more rain in here though. We really need the rain over snow at this point. I think the Boone area stands a better chance of seeing some early onset snow but I'm excited about more rain coming in. Rain total in my area was 3.72 inches. A nice total and it even bumped up the rivers a bit. More rain, more rain!

You'd better believe I'm standing up here with my fingers and toes crossed doing a snow dance. Gonna be a very close call for sure at onset. Euro is 2º from quite a bit of ice IMBY through the day on Sunday. Keeps KTNB at 33-34 most of the day with plenty of precip.

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Well here goes. Joe and Met I predict you'll see grass and asphalt covering snow by next Thursday. Models suggesting there  will be few hours of changeover with the artic front. you might miss out Sunday but by mid week you'll cash in along with ski slopes northern mtns.

Yep I agree NCSNOW. Was just coming to post about NWF possibilities. Euro ensemble is hinting at this being the first chance for 2"+ event for all of the NC/TN border counties late Thursday into Friday. With temps well below freezing and a stout NW wind, these flakes will likely push all the way into Asheville giving the valleys north of I-40 their first snow showers of the year. Euro Ensemble also seeing snowfall in the Franklin, NC area. I like the snow being laid down to our NW and the CFS says that will continue. Cold air should have no problem over the next few weeks getting into the area and that could set up for something bigger as we progress through December.

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On 12/2/2016 at 9:21 PM, NCSNOW said:

Well here goes. Joe and Met I predict you'll see grass and asphalt covering snow by next Thursday. Models suggesting there  will be few hours of changeover with the artic front. you might miss out Sunday but by mid week you'll cash in along with ski slopes northern mtns.

Yeah I completely agree. The upslope signal looks great with the Arctic front coming through. I think we see some decent snow amounts.

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Just like that, rain has turned to moderate snow. Already dusting things up.

 

Pretty picture in Blowing Rock this morning:

[url=http://www.resortcams.com/webcams/blowing-rock/]http://www.resortcams.com/webcams/blowing-rock/[/url
 


Hell, I'm sitting on my front porch drinking coffee watching it rain at 41 Degrees. But I'm in the foothills ;)

Enjoy this taste folks!

97114286ab42cf1486097bf3622cb498.jpg


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