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2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

bluewave

By bluewave,
in New York City Metro

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

That pesky ULL on the Euro is still not going to let Mathew come far enough North this run. You can see it getting pulled NE at day 7. The good news is that it's still seven days away. This was definitely a shift towards the GFS solution.

It's also slower then 00z but much further west 

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
Just now, Allsnow said:

It's also slower then 00z but much further west 

Yeah to be honest I was expecting an even harder right turn because it was East early. I think it's pretty safe to say at this point that the first benchmark is for Mathew to miss Haiti. If it crosses Haiti it's that much harder to get it to come back far enough West. Even the GFS more or less brings it due North from its position in the Bahamas.

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Rjay

Rjay

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I'm sorry but is this meant to be a trolling post?

At 00z 10/10 the Euro is at least 500 miles further NW from it's 00z position, and headed for a landfall in Canada. It wouldn't have taken much change to get a GFS solution.

Did you not see my post showing the big jump west on this run?

 

It certainly looked much better but are you saying this is not still way ots?  I'm talking about this run verbatim.  

 

That trough shown on the Euro is weak sauce and needs to be stronger/dig a bit more to capture Matthew.

 

**Image to show pretty far ots.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_9.png

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_10.png

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Did you not see my post showing the big jump west on this run?

 

It certainly looked much better but are you saying this is not still way ots?  I'm talking about this run verbatim.  

 

That trough shown in the Euro is weak sauce and needs to be stronger/dig a bit more to capture Matthew.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_9.png

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_10.png

Perhaps I misinterpreted your post.

Mathew is such a large cyclone that even though the center appears to pass well offshore, it actually rains in North Carolina on this run and some of the wind makes it onshore even up this way. Eventually Mathew makes landfall in Nova Scotia. To me, saying way OTS can be misleading, especially when the last several runs were clearly well OTS.

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
Just now, Bacon Strips said:

 

can u give credit at-least...whenever u guys do decide.

were less than a week away, that's nothing.  Sandy was called correctly 9 days beforehand.

 At this juncture the only real model which impacts this area significantly is the GFS and handful of ensembles. We're at least seven days away from impact up here and we have this thread to discuss possibilities until things become clearer. 

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Rjay

Rjay

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The short term track over the next 5 days will be very important. The Euro track would be closer to the GFS if it didn't track over Haiti.

Notice how the Euro ending up SE of the GFS at 120 causes it to get kicked out instead of picked up by the trough like the GFS.

Also look at the trough on the Euro vs the gfs

ecmwf_z500a_us_8.png

gfs_z500a_us_29.png

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