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2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N


bluewave

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49 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

take a look at a climo map for October storms and you'll see....

that's not a forecast or analysis.  we can all do this...and we will all be right most of the time.  without looking at a single computer model..the prediction that a hurricane will miss our area will prove right far more times than not.  when more than one model exhibits potential, you pay attention to it.  sandy happened.  it was very unlikely, and remains very unlikely to happen again, but it doesn't mean we should be flippant about such potential.  

 

i can make a few probably right predictions too.  most snowstorms will fail rather than succeed.  most severe storms will be less severe east of new york city.  it's unlikely to hit 0 degrees in NYC or the coast this season.  all of these statements are true, yet they have all happened over the last decade.  i don't think anyone here is under the illusion that this is likely, just that it is possible.

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22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The UKMET is a carbon copy of the slower Euro at least through 144 hrs sitting over Eastern Cuba. The EPS mean so far looks like a western

outlier compared to the OP Euro, UKMET, and GFS.

ps2png-atls00-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-uqmXkr.png

 

 

 

Take the middle and go with the Gefs :)

Euro control hammers south Florida

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