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Baroclinic Zone

Memorial Day - heavy rain threat

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Less than 24hrs out and models have come around to a quick but potent torrential rain threat for tomorrow across the region. Looks like initial threat will be across c/w areas before shifting e in the afternoon. Potential for 1"+ in a short timeframe which may lead to localized flooding.

For those like me that have to go to a parade, joy....

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Less than 24hrs out and models have come around to a quick but potent torrential rain threat for tomorrow across the region. Looks like initial threat will be across c/w areas before shifting e in the afternoon. Potential for 1"+ in a short timeframe which may lead to localized flooding.

For those like me that have to go to a parade, joy....

I'm excited to be coaching Monday at the Cape...

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Elaborate in standard Tip fashion, por favor.

 

well ... yes and no.   heh, I just didn't want to poo the idea altogether.   Hence "not sure"  :)

 

granted, we have a (never should have been) designated tropical storm (which was only done out of PR protocols in that it was nearing land) coming ashore and apparently moving up around the western periphery of the decaying western Atlantic ridge.. but it seems it would be more convective than organized due to it being so weak already, and being absorbed into the pressure pattern entirely well before getting up here ... 

 

pwats should increase and any rainfall should be enhanced, but I don't (imho) think it is worth any enhanced wording. 

 

'course, I thought today's BD was a bit over cooked in the NAM and it exceedingly perfectly nailed it, too - so...

 

Noticing the NAM's T1 at Logan is up to 24 C, which is good for about 27 or 28 in the 2-meter, which is around 83 and probably over 72 dps so backyard CU could dump an inch in that ..

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.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

* Localized flash flooding Memorial Day, esp near S Coast

* Few storms possible Monday afternoon, mainly in W MA

Although confidence in the exact location remains low, pattern

favors locally heavy rainfall in parts of SNE Memorial Day due to

remnants of tropical system combined with approaching front and

strong low level jet offshore. Precipitable water values will

climb to around 2 inches, which as noted previously is near record

high levels for this time of year. This scenario could bring

rainfall rates as high as 2-3 inches per hour in a few locations,

possibly resulting in rapid urban flooding.

12z models and ensembles are showing greater potential for this

to occur near the South Coast. However, it is likely that model

resolution is not resolving these small-scale features very well

at this time frame, so the location projected by the models may

not be accurate. It is possible that axis of heavier rainfall sets

up closer to northeast CT, Providence, and Boston or even ends up

farther offshore south of Cape Cod and the Islands. We probably

won`t know for sure until later tonight when we get within 12

hours of the heaviest rain.

As a result, we will hold off on issuing any Flash Flood Watches

at this time, since confidence is low.

It does appear that the showers will end up focusing across

southeast New England Monday afternoon, meaning there may be some

drying (and brief clearing) across the interior. Should that

occur, it`s possible that a few thunderstorms could reach western

MA by evening. However, the threat for severe weather looks

minimal given weak instability and shear expected to be in place.

Cold front will move through the region Monday night, pushing any

remaining showers offshore and ushering some drier air into SNE.

 

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There is a flood threat. Tip just doesn't think it was a TC.

 

 

I don't think so actually -   ... not above the background scale of convection, which can pond road ways and bank-full smaller/quick responder drain basins and streams any time.  

 

There's nothing special or widespread enough of a threat - but ... meh, just my opinion. 

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.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

* Localized flash flooding Memorial Day, esp near S Coast

* Few storms possible Monday afternoon, mainly in W MA

Although confidence in the exact location remains low, pattern

favors locally heavy rainfall in parts of SNE Memorial Day due to

remnants of tropical system combined with approaching front and

strong low level jet offshore. Precipitable water values will

climb to around 2 inches, which as noted previously is near record

high levels for this time of year. This scenario could bring

rainfall rates as high as 2-3 inches per hour in a few locations,

possibly resulting in rapid urban flooding.

12z models and ensembles are showing greater potential for this

to occur near the South Coast. However, it is likely that model

resolution is not resolving these small-scale features very well

at this time frame, so the location projected by the models may

not be accurate. It is possible that axis of heavier rainfall sets

up closer to northeast CT, Providence, and Boston or even ends up

farther offshore south of Cape Cod and the Islands. We probably

won`t know for sure until later tonight when we get within 12

hours of the heaviest rain.

As a result, we will hold off on issuing any Flash Flood Watches

at this time, since confidence is low.

It does appear that the showers will end up focusing across

southeast New England Monday afternoon, meaning there may be some

drying (and brief clearing) across the interior. Should that

occur, it`s possible that a few thunderstorms could reach western

MA by evening. However, the threat for severe weather looks

minimal given weak instability and shear expected to be in place.

Cold front will move through the region Monday night, pushing any

remaining showers offshore and ushering some drier air into SNE.

 

 

 

heh, we'll see I guess.

 

They do say low confidence and not issuing ...  

 

In defense of it there is a huge PWAT plume poised to move up over the region as the remnants of thing gets tangled up in the barotropic region out ahead of the cold front over the Lakes.   so anything cells that do rain fall through that column could tint blue in their rain shafts. 

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heh, we'll see I guess.

 

They do say low confidence and not issuing ...  

 

In defense of it there is a huge PWAT plume poised to move up over the region as the remnants of thing gets tangled up in the barotropic region out ahead of the cold front over the Lakes.   so anything cells that do rain fall through that column could tint blue in their rain shafts. 

In their AM AFD they mentioned PWATs hitting record levels in the area for the time of year.

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In their AM AFD they mentioned PWATs hitting record levels in the area for the time of year.

 

GW   ...hahaha

 

yeah, the more I look at this, I suppose it's ok.  

 

what I don't like is the lack of trigger for widespread.   but it doesn't have to be widespread to fill up some hapless family's cellar.  heh.

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"Tint blue in their rain shafts"....what in the world does that mean Tip?

Does heavy rain have a blue-ish color?

 

you're only a fan of weather, then  :P

 

do you know why tornadic thunderstorms look green in their underbellies - so it is said? 

 

the same reason why the ocean looks green-blue.  huge water content suspended in cloud splits out the other areas of the spectrum and the greens and blues still get through. 

 

right where that seam between where the gray wall of a super dense rain shaft edges with the outflow cloud ... that region tints blue/green in very high water content scenarios - be it severe updrafts suspending or massive pwats...etc.

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Going to western MA tomorrow to chase

 

 

um ...why?  

 

actually, humid scud tendrils tangled with tree tops up along the climbs of the ridge lines - worth some photo ops I suppose. 

 

seriously, what are you thinking you're going to see.  Low LCLer's ?

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um ...why?

actually, humid scud tendrils tangled with tree tops up along the climbs of the ridge lines - worth some photo ops I suppose.

seriously, what are you thinking you're going to see. Low LCLer's ?

Have to go after something. This has been ridiculous. After tomorrow the next threat could be Friday or Saturday out across PA maybe but my friend and I could very well get shut out in which I'll flip.

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GW ...hahaha

yeah, the more I look at this, I suppose it's ok.

what I don't like is the lack of trigger for widespread. but it doesn't have to be widespread to fill up some hapless family's cellar. heh.

I think we're both on the same page. I think there is a flood threat. Never mentioned anything widespread

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