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Chicago Storm

April 24-30th Severe Potential

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0501

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0356 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 126...

VALID 292056Z - 292200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 126 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR

TWO. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELL OVER SRN CADDO/NRN COMANCHE COUNTY HAS

STRENGTHENED WITH A BROAD VROT RECENTLY ESTIMATED AROUND 60 KT.

AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM IS CHARACTERIZED BY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS WITH

TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S. LATEST

MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE APPROACHING 2000 J PER KG. IN

CONTRAST...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH AT TLX HAS BEEN SHRINKING OVER THE

PAST HOUR AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS. EVEN WITH THE

WEAKENING WINDS...THE TORNADO THREAT WITH THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO

PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. VERY LARGE HAIL AND

DAMAGING WINDS ALSO REMAIN PROBABLE.

..MOSIER.. 04/29/2016

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
411 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

OKC015-031-051-292145-
/O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-160429T2145Z/
CADDO OK-GRADY OK-COMANCHE OK-
411 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN CADDO...SOUTHERN GRADY AND NORTHEASTERN COMANCHE
COUNTIES...
    
AT 411 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED NEAR AGAWAM...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY
         BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES
         WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...
         BUSINESSES...AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION
         IS POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALEX...CEMENT...AGAWAM AND NINNEKAH.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 65 AND 75.

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Oh boy. Circulation should go south of me, but I'm expecting some potentially huge hail at least.

 

Preliminary kudos to all of the CAMs that pinpointed this supercell sliding up I-44. Impressive. 

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