Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 12/11-12/12 potential is DOA...brief frozen to rain for most in this forum. Midweek potential now heading the wrong direction as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Current temp is down to 30 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 28.8F in Horsham Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Damn nippy out there....winds kicking a bit. 28.6F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 29.5F and only slowly dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Made it to 27.1F here a little while ago, the coldest reading of the season to date, by about a degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Im not quite as gung ho as some folks in the NYC forum regarding the upcoming pattern. -EPO imho looks displaced too far to the West (not a true epo block by definition) centering the mean ridge off the West Coast and the mean trof out in the rockies with more of a flat flow or gradient type pattern in the LR. These are always hit or miss in terms of winter weather.....end up North of the gradient, you are golden. End up South and not so good if you want snow. No blocking in the Atlantic to amplify things on the East Coast spells fast moving systems for the foreseeable future. This doesnt mean we are in dire straits but based on early season patterns, I am sticking with my guns that this will play out as an overall normal winter for SE PA with DJF temps averaging near normal for the 3 month period with snowfall averaging near or slightly below avg. Another back loaded winter likely with March being BN in temps and AN in snowfall. I just dont see anything near term to snap the cold then cutter/snow to rain pattern for SE PA and coastal areas. Inland and well N and W another story. Enjoy your winter :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Im not quite as gung ho as some folks in the NYC forum regarding the upcoming pattern. -EPO imho looks displaced too far to the West (not a true epo block by definition) centering the mean ridge off the West Coast and the mean trof out in the rockies with more of a flat flow or gradient type pattern in the LR. These are always hit or miss in terms of winter weather.....end up North of the gradient, you are golden. End up South and not so good if you want snow. No blocking in the Atlantic to amplify things on the East Coast spells fast moving systems for the foreseeable future. This doesnt mean we are in dire straits but based on early season patterns, I am sticking with my guns that this will play out as an overall normal winter for SE PA with DJF temps averaging near normal for the 3 month period with snowfall averaging mear or slightly below avg. Another back loaded winter likely with March being BN in temps and AN in snowfall. I just dont see anything near term to snap the cold then cutter/snow to rain pattern for SE PA and coastal areas. Inland and well N and W another story. Enjoy your winter :-) Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Good post I think HM is right about this being an interior winter, but I'm sure you guys will have chances especially as the season progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Good post I think HM is right about this being an interior winter, but I'm sure you guys will have chances especially as the season progresses.Dont know who HM is but glad we agree :-/Agreed, patience will be key this winter. Lots of 1-3"/2-4" stuff early along with front end thumps to rain for SE PA (I95 corridor and nearby burbs). LV will do well imo as well as interior and upstate PA. Not sure we get a "big" storm this year....only if NA blocking can ever establish itself and slow the fast flow that is East of the continental divide. 4-8"/5-10" storm in late Feb or early March this year will be our big one in SE PA and will push seasonal snowfall to close to avg. This isnt a terrible thing and obviously these are just my personal thoughts. Things could be a heck of a lot worse....avg isnt bad. Cant have an above avg snowfall winter will monster storms every year....just doesnt work that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Of course I have pointed out before how lucky (for those that like snow) this area has been. Imagine if you grew up in Philly in the 70's (like me)and did not see one storm with over 10" from the time you were too young to remember (Christmas Eve 1966 - 12" snow at PHL) till January 20, 1978. So growing up in Philly I saw my first storm over 10" at 15 yrs old. In fact until that age I only witnessed one storm over 6" - that was on my 10th birthday 12/17/73. Today's younger generation thinks large snow storms happen every year. Imagine if we had the internet back in the day....how much cheese would be needed for all the whining? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 54 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Dont know who HM is but glad we agree :-/ Agreed, patience will be key this winter. Lots of 1-3"/2-4" stuff early along with front end thumps to rain for SE PA (I95 corridor and nearby burbs). LV will do well imo as well as interior and upstate PA. Not sure we get a "big" storm this year....only if NA blocking can ever establish itself and slow the fast flow that is East of the continental divide. 4-8"/5-10" storm in late Feb or early March this year will be our big one in SE PA and will push seasonal snowfall to close to avg. This isnt a terrible thing and obviously these are just my personal thoughts. Things could be a heck of a lot worse....avg isnt bad. Cant have an above avg snowfall winter will monster storms every year....just doesnt work that way. Completely agree Ralph, good post. Definitely looking like an interior and new England winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 The cubic zirconia model(GGEM) has all snow imby monday 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Did you really delete the thread for Sunday?Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 12 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Did you really delete the thread for Sunday? Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk Indeed he did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 15 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Did you really delete the thread for Sunday? Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk Maybe possibly did it to create some good ju-ju, 12z ECM with a weaker wave, weaker means less warm shows decent dose of snow N&W of Philly and NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Maybe possibly did it to create some good ju-ju, 12z ECM with a weaker wave, weaker means less warm shows decent dose of snow N&W of Philly and NYC Don't really agree with that but whatever. Hmmm how's it look for ABE and NORTH ? Don't have WB on my phoneSent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 minute ago, anthonyweather said: Don't really agree with that but whatever. Hmmm how's it look for ABE and NORTH ? Don't have WB on my phone Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk Sounds like from what is being said by our neighbour thread to the north it's in line with the GGEM so several inches. Sign me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Sounds like from what is being said by our neighbour thread to the north it's in line with the GGEM so several inches. Sign me up. Thank you sir, you're up in carbon right Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Don't really agree with that but whatever. Hmmm how's it look for ABE and NORTH ? Don't have WB on my phoneSent from my LG-H900 using TapatalkEuro guilty of it's newest bias....stringing us along and letting us down at the very last minute. CMC is by itself essentially. I was premature with the winter storm thread. This is a low pressure going from Detroit to coastal Maine well N and W of everyone on this forum. Sure, a few areas will see some flakes at the onset but even N and W are going to plain cold rain with a retreating, and what will be a stale airmass, by Monday morning. When the often progressive NGP is starting to go towards the GFS and amp things up, thats not good. 850 low tracking from Wisconsin to Newfoundland isn't going to work for most of us. Again, aside from some isolated areas getting very minor accums at the onset, this looks like a wash for the majority. When a legit threat is on the horizon, I will open another thread. It felt good to shake the dust off anyway. Here's to a fun and active season hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Regardless it's a STORM, and members of this sub forum stand to see plowable snow even if it does eventually rain. Yeah Philly may not but that shouldn't be grounds for dismissing the entire thing.Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Couple of flurries drifting by, 35.6F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Temp only up to 38 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Meh...damn future snow chances screw us or not....definitely feels like Fall out there. Cloudy, windy and cold today...what the hell? Seems cool in my book... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 48 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Thank you sir, you're up in carbon right Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk No residing in the high hills of upper Bucks not far from Allentown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Couple flakes falling here...not great..but yeah. Winds are kicking though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Regardless it's a STORM, and members of this sub forum stand to see plowable snow even if it does eventually rain. Yeah Philly may not but that shouldn't be grounds for dismissing the entire thing.Sent from my LG-H900 using TapatalkStart a thread then. This is a public forum. We both have freedom (moderated obviously) to post as we choose. I chose to pull the thread. I see this threat of plowable snows as more isolated than you are seeing it apparently. Im not disagreeing that some areas in the Poconos will get several inches. I just see it more isolated rather than a widespread event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 We can't forget normal December climatology and that we have been living in a snow globe like environment since the winter of 2001. Philly normal for this month is 2.5" and I believe that is up .4" from the snow of the last 15 years. Cold weather and rain is normal December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 So the ECM has like 5" for NYC I read? It's short range too now inside 72hrs. Is this model any good anymore or is it going to snow? ***In reality it is closer to 2-3" but still advisory level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Prevailing pro met opinion is the ECM/GGEM will correct to the NAM GFS and make this primarily rain. Should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Received a dusting an hour ago, touch of white for the lights 30F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.