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La Niña/Winter 2016-17 Discussion

dmillz25

By dmillz25,
in New York City Metro

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

it could be a 1983-84 type meltdown of the el nino...or 1966-67...

May to September oni for selected years...

1958...

1958   5 0.641958   6 0.671958   7 0.381958   8 0.361958   9 0.31

1966...

1966   5 0.021966   6 0.301966   7 0.251966   8-0.011966   9-0.02

1973...

1973   5-0.511973   6-0.711973   7-1.051973   8-1.121973   9-1.32

1983...

1983   5 1.091983   6 0.751983   7 0.121983   8 0.021983   9-0.25

1998

1998   5 0.671998   6-0.151998   7-0.741998   8-1.121998   9-1.13

2010...

2010   5 0.022010   6-0.442010   7-0.792010   8-1.162010   9-1.41

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

 

 

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KEITH L.I

KEITH L.I

Posted
Posted

A reminder..La Nina is not a killer of winter in the east.A strong Nino like we had last year,certainly,but we have had some blockbuster winters that were La Nina.Some of course were bad, but you can find that with neutral years too..And I think it's too early for sure to know the magnitude of the La Nina this winter..Just look at 66-67,95-96 and 10-11 to prove my point

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snowman19

snowman19

Posted
Posted

A reminder..La Nina is not a killer of winter in the east.A strong Nino like we had last year,certainly,but we have had some blockbuster winters that were La Nina.Some of course were bad, but you can find that with neutral years too..And I think it's too early for sure to know the magnitude of the La Nina this winter..Just look at 66-67,95-96 and 10-11 to prove my point

Right, the last few posts were just PDO and QBO related. That said, I think a high end moderate Niña is a very good bet however, and it's shaping up to be another west-based event. IMO it is way, way too early to discuss this upcoming winter yet
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snowman19

snowman19

Posted
Posted

This is the warmest that the Pacific has been for a Nino to Nina transition in June.

All the other transition years were much cooler across the Pacific since 1990.

6/25/16

16.gif

6/25...2010...2007...2005...1998...1995 composite

comp.gif

Correct, however, now the situation is very fluid. You have very strong and massive, sprawling surface high pressure over the entire North Pacific right now, which looks to continue as far as the eye can see. You simply can't sustain +PDO for much longer with that setup. The Niña is coupling with the atmosphere in a big way now. Huge drop in AAM, which is being reflected with that North Pacific setup
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snowman19

snowman19

Posted
Posted

This is the most out of phase ENSO event for the PDO since the El Nino tried to develop during the summer of 2012

with the strong -PDO. The models really struggled with that event.

12.gif

16.gif

EURO.png

A lot of weird stuff going on this year, most notably the extremely erratic QBO behavior. A -QBO for this fall/winter was all but assured several months ago, now the chance of it flipping back positive is a real possibility
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snowman19

snowman19

Posted
Posted

Yeah, the 2000's so far have had their share of unique weather and climate events across the IO and Pacific.

1) Record warm WPAC and IO and record trade wind pattern from roughly 1998 to 2012

2) Failure of the summer 2012 El Nino to develop into the fall and winter against strong -PDO

3) Record NE Pacific blocking and warm SST blob from 2013 on

4) Trades came back after spring 2014 OKW which had some thinking super El Nino for 2014-2015

before only making weak El Nino to warm neutral winter 14-15

5) WWB's and OKW in early 2015 finally push the second year to super Nino status with record

SST warmth further west that we have seen in modern times

6) La Nina tries to develop in early summer 2016 against the background record +PDO and

overall warm Pacific SST state

We now have the most strongly negative IOD in over 15 years. That is only going to serve to enhance La Niña development, very favorable SST/pressure patterns associated with the -IOD to further cool the ENSO regions. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/?cid=009tw06
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snowman19

snowman19

Posted
Posted

That's an impressive reading. But it's tough to find a relationship between the strength of the -IOD and La Nina.

Just that they have gone together in the past.

One of the strongest recent -IOD events came at the tail end of the 95-96 La Nina.

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/DATA/dmi_HadISST.txt

iod.png

The theory is, with that SST configuration, it promotes +SOI, strong trade winds
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forkyfork

forkyfork

Posted
Posted

This is lending support to this being another west-based event. The east-based Ninas have pretty much become a thing of the past

2010/11 started as east based and changed orientation in january. it probably contributed to the end of the extreme snow production that winter 

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snowman19

snowman19

Posted
Posted

2010/11 started as east based and changed orientation in january. it probably contributed to the end of the extreme snow production that winter

Yes, in the very late fall and early part of that winter it was more east-based then it went west-based and that was all she wrote. The blocking started slowly breaking down in mid January, by the end of the month it totally broke down and never came back again, right through spring. This year, it's starting west-based right off the bat
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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

2010/11 started as east based and changed orientation in january. it probably contributed to the end of the extreme snow production that winter 

while it started east and propagated west the AO and NAO went from negative to positive at the same time...

AO....

2010 11 19 -1.6882010 11 20 -2.3212010 11 21 -2.3902010 11 22 -2.2322010 11 23 -2.4082010 11 24 -2.7052010 11 25 -3.3352010 11 26 -4.0582010 11 27 -3.9352010 11 28 -2.8562010 11 29 -2.2532010 11 30 -1.3772010 12  1 -0.3722010 12  2  0.1352010 12  3 -0.4642010 12  4 -1.3552010 12  5 -1.5072010 12  6 -2.2012010 12  7 -2.3062010 12  8 -1.6642010 12  9 -0.3632010 12 10 -0.2332010 12 11 -1.0962010 12 12 -1.5732010 12 13 -1.8902010 12 14 -2.1482010 12 15 -2.6502010 12 16 -3.5982010 12 17 -4.5492010 12 18 -5.2652010 12 19 -4.6952010 12 20 -4.1112010 12 21 -4.2302010 12 22 -3.9882010 12 23 -3.6922010 12 24 -3.8622010 12 25 -3.8272010 12 26 -2.8862010 12 27 -2.5322010 12 28 -2.7762010 12 29 -2.9662010 12 30 -3.0182010 12 31 -2.9822011  1  1 -3.0102011  1  2 -3.0762011  1  3 -3.0222011  1  4 -2.6342011  1  5 -2.7102011  1  6 -2.9862011  1  7 -2.9862011  1  8 -2.9202011  1  9 -3.1932011  1 10 -3.6292011  1 11 -3.8062011  1 12 -3.2972011  1 13 -2.4762011  1 14 -1.6212011  1 15 -0.7042011  1 16  0.1522011  1 17  0.0692011  1 18 -0.8952011  1 19 -1.8982011  1 20 -2.1452011  1 21 -2.2952011  1 22 -2.4112011  1 23 -2.1352011  1 24 -1.0852011  1 25 -0.2722011  1 26 -0.1422011  1 27  0.0282011  1 28  0.4582011  1 29  1.1202011  1 30  1.3582011  1 31  1.8412011  2  1  2.0972011  2  2  2.7662011  2  3  3.5422011  2  4  3.9142011  2  5  3.1042011  2  6  2.0562011  2  7  1.5592011  2  8  0.9892011  2  9  1.1922011  2 10  1.3632011  2 11  1.6642011  2 12  2.1502011  2 13  1.8272011  2 14  0.834

.....NAO....

2010 11 19 -0.8572010 11 20 -1.0552010 11 21 -1.0152010 11 22 -1.2162010 11 23 -1.5062010 11 24 -1.8762010 11 25 -2.5222010 11 26 -2.6322010 11 27 -2.5272010 11 28 -2.3172010 11 29 -2.5042010 11 30 -2.6962010 12  1 -2.0432010 12  2 -1.6672010 12  3 -1.7442010 12  4 -1.5452010 12  5 -1.2112010 12  6 -1.0822010 12  7 -1.1062010 12  8 -1.0362010 12  9 -0.8012010 12 10 -0.7072010 12 11 -0.6932010 12 12 -0.8622010 12 13 -1.4162010 12 14 -1.5442010 12 15 -1.2792010 12 16 -1.1192010 12 17 -1.2292010 12 18 -1.5332010 12 19 -1.3042010 12 20 -0.7402010 12 21 -0.5432010 12 22 -0.8322010 12 23 -1.1872010 12 24 -1.3432010 12 25 -1.1442010 12 26 -0.8342010 12 27 -0.8682010 12 28 -0.9682010 12 29 -1.1372010 12 30 -1.4622010 12 31 -1.3552011  1  1 -1.6262011  1  2 -1.7342011  1  3 -1.8142011  1  4 -1.9092011  1  5 -1.7462011  1  6 -1.4472011  1  7 -1.2382011  1  8 -0.9202011  1  9 -0.5242011  1 10 -0.1362011  1 11  0.0502011  1 12  0.2852011  1 13  0.4702011  1 14  0.7022011  1 15  0.6802011  1 16  0.3892011  1 17  0.3752011  1 18  0.3452011  1 19  0.1932011  1 20 -0.0482011  1 21 -0.4242011  1 22 -0.7772011  1 23 -0.7972011  1 24 -0.9442011  1 25 -0.8722011  1 26 -0.6192011  1 27 -0.3582011  1 28 -0.0712011  1 29  0.0862011  1 30  0.3282011  1 31  0.4592011  2  1  0.5232011  2  2  0.7312011  2  3  0.9642011  2  4  0.9442011  2  5  0.7992011  2  6  0.6462011  2  7  0.8662011  2  8  0.6362011  2  9  0.3682011  2 10  0.3742011  2 11  0.4072011  2 12  0.5802011  2 13  0.6422011  2 14  0.797
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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

Maybe it will be like the 14-15 Nino. It will be weak or fail this Year but come on stronger next year.

In general that is a tougher feat for La Niñas to pull off than El Niños. They seem dependent on feeding off a previous El Niño, if the fuel from that is gone I think the chance of a strong La Niña goes as well. It's this year or not if there is going to be a legit La Niña I think.

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Yanksfan

Yanksfan

Posted
Posted

In general that is a tougher feat for La Niñas to pull off than El Niños. They seem dependent on feeding off a previous El Niño, if the fuel from that is gone I think the chance of a strong La Niña goes as well. It's this year or not if there is going to be a legit La Niña I think.

This upcoming Nina event looks in line to be a weak event, possibly peaking into moderate territory for a time. Pacific looks too hostile for a predominantly stronger event. One other aspect to this is the fact that our recent El Nino gradually diminished instead of a steep decline that most models depicted last winter. That may well indeed could play an important role to the ultimate strength of this event.

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

1983-84 was a weak negative after a strong el nino....

1983

 

2.1

1.8

1.5

1.2

1.0

0.7

0.3

0

-0.3

-0.6

-0.8

-0.8

1984

-0.5

-0.3

-0.3

-0.4

-0.4

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.3

-0.6

-0.9

-1.1

1985

-0.9

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.6

-0.4

-0.4

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.3

1986

-0.4

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.2

0.4

0.7

0.9

1.0

1.1

1954-55 followed a weak three year el nino...

1954

 

0.7

0.4

0

-0.4

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.7

-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.5

1955

-0.6

-0.6

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.6

-0.6

-0.6

-1.0

-1.4

-1.6

-1.4

1956

-0.9

-0.6

-0.6

-0.5

-0.5

-0.4

-0.5

-0.5

-0.4

-0.4

-0.5

-0.4

1957

-0.3

0

0.3

0.6

0.7

0.9

1.0

1.2

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.6

both cases had a stronger la nina the second year...

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

This upcoming Nina event looks in line to be a weak event, possibly peaking into moderate territory for a time. Pacific looks too hostile for a predominantly stronger event. One other aspect to this is the fact that our recent El Nino gradually diminished instead of a steep decline that most models depicted last winter. That may well indeed could play an important role to the ultimate strength of this event.

I had been siding with something 83-84 like as my original guess a few months ago. I didn't think this one was going to rival 88-89 98-99 or 10-11 for a few reasons. That said I guess we could still see something stronger but I'm losing belief at this point

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snowman19

snowman19

Posted
Posted

This upcoming Nina event looks in line to be a weak event, possibly peaking into moderate territory for a time. Pacific looks too hostile for a predominantly stronger event. One other aspect to this is the fact that our recent El Nino gradually diminished instead of a steep decline that most models depicted last winter. That may well indeed could play an important role to the ultimate strength of this event.

The subsurface anomalies support a moderate event, whether it actually happens remains to be seen but the anomalies are impressive and they are widespread. As of now, a solid moderate Niña peak is certainly well within the realm of possibilities
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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

What phase of the qbo promotes blocking again?

Negative, but not strongly negative. I think -5 to -12 or so is ideal. Huge negative numbers are bad. There is a tricky part though, I want to say that under El Niño conditions blocking is also likely with a positive QBO. Under neutral or La Niña though I think a positive QBO, even a weakly positive one supports a +NAO. Some forecasters, I think maybe DT is one, think the QBO is overrated and that anything between +12 to -12 is insignificant.

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