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La Niña/Winter 2016-17 Discussion


dmillz25

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Yes, had it not been for the AO and NAO blocking, the outcome of the early part of that winter would have been vastly different. We got a seasons' worth of snowfall between December 1st and February 1st, a true front end loaded winter. Once the blocking left in early February, it never came back

. I thought at first you were talking about last winter!!! But yeah that winter was all about blocking. I fully except blocking to increase moving forward. As climate change slows and kinks the jet.! Would say in the next 50 years we see our lowest and highest snowfall winters on record
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. I thought at first you were talking about last winter!!! But yeah that winter was all about blocking. I fully except blocking to increase moving forward. As climate change slows and kinks the jet.! Would say in the next 50 years we see our lowest and highest snowfall winters on record

The feedback effects from the AMO are more pronounced in summer than winter, however the very cold North Atlantic look we have seen as of late, is a "dipole" setup (-AMO) in the ssts that supports more +NAO than the classic "tripole" setup you see in +AMO regimes, which favors more -NAO and Greenland blocking. Whether this change is temporary or something more long term in the high latitude setup remains to be seen
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10-11 was a borderline strong cold ENSO event, not weak.

We had a massive -NAO in Dec with a good EPO in January, much like 08-09.

 

 

Agree. It had 5 trimonthlies of -1.3c to -1.4c. That's high end moderate La Nina.

 

1.3

-1.4

-1.3

-1.4

2011

-1.3

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HM posted this on twitter, but as you can see, classic strong -IOD forming. Breeding ground for a rapidly strengthening La Niña/Niña cell setup with strong trades and +SOI. We are already at "neural" in region 3.4 with more rapid cooling on the way... HM tweet: https://mobile.twitter.com/antmasiello/status/735097326830657537

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strongest la nina's on the oni and mei scale...

MEI.......month/year......Oni...tri monthly, year

-2.272...M/J...1955......-1.9.....NDJ.....1973-74

-1.986...S/O...1975.....-1.8.....NDJ.....1988-89

-1.954...A/S...2010...-1.6.....NDJ.....1975-76

-1.934...D/J...1974.....-1.6.....OND.....1955-56

-1.807...F/M...1971.....-1.6.....NDJ.....1999-00

-1.583...F/M...2008.....-1.4.....DJF.....1949-50

-1.558...F/M...1956.....-1.4.....NDJ.....1998-99

-1.511...J/A...1964.....-1.4.....DJF.....2007-08

-1.505...M/J...1956.....-1.4.....NDJ.....2010-11

-1.499...A/S...1988.....-1.3.....DJF.....1970-71

-1.427...A/M...1950.....-1.1.....NDJ.....1984-85

-1.222...M/A...1951.....-1.0.....OND.....1995-96

-1.207...J/F...2000.....-0.9.....OND.....2011-12

-1.176...J/F...1999.....-0.9.....OND.....1971-72

-1.093...J/F...1968.....-0.8.....DJF.....1950-51

-1.082...D/J...1962.....-0.8.....NDJ....1964-65

-1.068...F/M...1967.....-0.8.....NDJ.....2000-01

-0.998...N/D...1971.....-0.8.....DJF.....2008-09

-0.995...D/J...2012.....-0.8.....JFM.....1967-68

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Strong Nina's aren't as bad a strong Nino's.

Not true and here's why, in a strong Nino you have a very strong, juiced southern stream or subtropical jet. The risk of a triple phaser or major "KU" nor'easter bomb is always there, if the cold arctic air is timed just right...like this past winter. In a strong Niña, the subtropical jet is inactive, the pacific/polar jet dominates, and the tendency for a strong SE ridge and cutters and inland runners is very high
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if you get the blocking that came in 1955-56, 2010-11 and 1995-96 you'll see plenty of snow...there are more cold la nina winters than cold el nino winters...snowfall is a little less on average with la nina winters...

Fair, but the 2 strongest on record, in the ONI sense (73-74 and 88-89), were real duds
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I knd of disagree...two of NYC's least snowiest were strong +ENSO... 97-98 at 5.5" and 72-73 at 2.8"...

True, but if you are given the choice of having a strong Nino or a strong Niña, take the strong Nino everytime if you are hoping for bigger snows. If you just want a colder winter and don't care about the possibility of "the big one", then go with a strong Niña. The strong Ninos do tend to be warmer winters on average than the strong Ninas
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Fair, but the 2 strongest on record, in the ONI sense (73-74 and 88-89), were real duds

73-74 was close to average 88-89 and 98-99 were duds.however it did snow the day before Christmas in 1998..And if you like front end winters..cold December ect..then La Nina's are to your liking

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Agree with snowman, I would take a strong Nino over Nina any day of the week. You risk more with Nina's if they don't work your way.

Strong nino's are always warm..you could get surprise big snowstorm like last winter but they are few are far between.. At least La Nina winters have cold shots..I'd rather work with some cold than none

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True, but if you are given the choice of having a strong Nino or a strong Niña, take the strong Nino everytime if you are hoping for bigger snows. If you just want a colder winter and don't care about the possibility of "the big one", then go with a strong Niña. The strong Ninos do tend to be warmer winters on average than the strong Ninas

Agreed. We had a blizzard during the strong La Niña of 2010-2011 because of the- NAO and -AO. It was a fluke thing that worked in our favor. It was only a matter of time before the La Niña would take over the pattern that year , and once the blocking collapsed...it did.

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Agreed. We had a blizzard during the strong La Niña of 2010-2011 because of the- NAO and -AO. It was a fluke thing that worked in our favor. It was only a matter of time before the La Niña would take over the pattern that year , and once the blocking collapsed...it did.

95-96 and 10-11..two of my favorite winters were La Nina's..there are so many other factors involved..One thing is for certain,if it's a strong nino it's going to be warm and November and December are going to torch..can't say that about strong nina's

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Strong nino's are always warm..you could get surprise big snowstorm like last winter but they are few are far between.. At least La Nina winters have cold shots..I'd rather work with some cold than none

 

 

That's false. Of the 7 strong el nino events since 1940 (40-41, 57-58, 65-66, 72-73, 82-83, 97-98, 15-16)  3 of them were colder than normal (40-41, 65-66, 57-58). Most did not live through the colder strong nino's, but they do occur with sufficient blocking. A warm December is a virtual lock, however.

2guz03q.png

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I don't like broad-brushing ENSO states as it's highly dependent upon high latitude blocking. The tendencies I would agree with: bigger snowfalls in strong el Nino's, generally colder in strong La Nina's, less "total shut-outs" in strong La Nina's. If you're a fan of chillier winters with a decreased probability of big snow storms - choose strong La Nina. Again, highly NAM/NAO dependent.

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That winter was helped big time by the massive -NAO and -AO. Once those vanished in the 2nd half of winter, it was lights out.

We got lucky that winter even in the face of the high end moderate, west-based La Niña because of the strong NAO and AO blocking early on. Once that blocking broke down at the beginning of February, it was like a light switch got turned off and the Niña totally dominated from that point, right into spring
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We got lucky that winter even in the face of the high end moderate, west-based La Niña because of the strong NAO and AO blocking early on. Once that blocking broke down at the beginning of February, it was like a light switch got turned off and the Niña totally dominated from that point, right into spring

If that blocking would have never dissipated that winter would have been the snowiest in recorded history in NYC
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where can I sign up for a 1973-74 type winter if the la nina is as strong?...It had the biggest ice storm of my life in December...some snow the first half of January and February...A storm the second half of February gave NYC 2" but there was 10" just south in New Jersey...March had a storm on the 29th and April had a little snow and record cold...1988-89 was a total failure except for southern New Jersey...

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The 1916-1917 super La Nina per the ESSRTv4 going back to the late 1880's wasn't too shabby either.

Peak trimonthly ONI DJF of -2.20 and 50.7" in NYC. Like it has been said earlier in this thread, it's more

about the blocking than whether it's La Nina...El Nino...weak..moderate..strong..super...etc. You can see

the NE Pac blocking just far enough east combined with the Greenland block for a great winter.

 

This forum would have been fun if it was around for the three year La Nina from 15-16 to 17-18 with

all the snow and historic cold.

 

attachicon.gif500.png

yea 1933-34 a la nina winter...1942-43 also...they hold the coldest and third coldest temperature on record...1970-71 was lacking in snow but it was quite cold...NYC missed out on big February and March snows by a few degrees...1970-71 was great just inland and north...

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95-96 and 10-11..two of my favorite winters were La Nina's..there are so many other factors involved..One thing is for certain,if it's a strong nino it's going to be warm and November and December are going to torch..can't say that about strong nina's

most of the cold, snowy or both la nina winters had good blocking...1955-56, 1962-63, 1964-65, 1995-96, 2000-01, 2010-11...blocking in December usually means cold and snowy...

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most of the cold, snowy or both la nina winters had good blocking...1955-56, 1962-63, 1964-65, 1995-96, 2000-01, 2010-11...blocking in December usually means cold and snowy...

That's the key in a strong La Niña, north Atlantic and arctic blocking have to be there. Right now, at face value, the subsurface anomalies support a high end moderate La Niña, at minimum. The possibility for a strong Niña is certainly there
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