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Winter Storm March 1st-2nd (Part 2)


Powerball

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Just snizzle/light snow flakes.

The track and especially the speed of the system concern me. The HRRR has the best rates in a 3-4 hour period (8 pm to midnight or 1 am). Also, the HRRR and RAP hint at some sleet in the early evening which may limit snow amounts.

Let's see what happens and hope for the best. Hopefully the HRRR is out to lunch with the sleet.

 

I'd wish you luck with your call but we know that's not the truth :lol:

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The 19z HRRR is rolling out and so far (up to 01z) the sleet /freezing rain is confined to the Niagara region. All snow for the GTA. Hopefully this is the start of a positive trend for the GTA as the HRRR gets into its wheelhouse (within the first 6 hours of the run).

 

The HRRR on pivotwx is weird. It shows returns over the city starting at 23z, the p-type as snow for the duration, yet its snowfall map doesn't start to fill in over us until about 2z.

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The HRRR on pivotwx is weird. It shows returns over the city starting at 23z, the p-type as snow for the duration, yet its snowfall map doesn't start to fill in over us until about 2z.

Pretty weird. Also there is a heavier return on the composite radar between 3z and 4z and the precip type changes to sleet. It quickly changes back to snow.

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Not bad given everything. Somewhere around 2.5" in the Ville. We should have made an actual bet - like that cool shovel of yours or something.

 

:lol: I would have lost this one. I fell a bit short of the warning criteria call. I think Kenosha and points west hit 6".

 

 

Heavy Sleet/Freezing Rain here right now, Trying to switch over to snow.

 

You should flip really soon. CAA is in full force on the backside of this storm.

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Wrapping up with 5.3". Biggest event since the sleet storm. Seasonal total 40.2" now.

40 inches, not bad. Id guess over in Will county we have had maybe 12 inches this winter. Times are tough, glad to see you got some snow today

Sent from my XT1526 using Tapatalk

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With the hi-res models not really backing down, I'm going to cut my totals expected totals for Toronto back to 6-9". We could still over-perform but just to hedge my bets.

I'll go with 8". Some of the recent trends concern me, but hopefully we'll get into some heavy precipitation. Environment Canada going with 6-10".

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40 inches, not bad. Id guess over in Will county we have had maybe 12 inches this winter. Times are tough, glad to see you got some snow today

Sent from my XT1526 using Tapatalk

 

Now if you're talking DJF total, then it looks pretty lousy. haha

23.6"

 

Alright Ricky got the report in.

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It's POSSIBLE that we'll be flipping over shortly.


 


The sky has that "melted snowflakes" look to it, the 1300m thickness line is now SE of us and the 850mb line is currently overhead, slowly moving SE.


 


It's just a matter of getting back under decent returns.

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