• Member Statistics

    15,935
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Danny8
    Newest Member
    Danny8
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
snowstormcanuck

Potential major winter storm - Feb 24-25 PART II

Recommended Posts

Maybe Rodger Smith has some geos like power to save you.  j/k  

 

Hopefully   you all can at least get the NWS map to work out at least and work from there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The main part of the storm wasn't supposed to get into NE IL until rush hour. The deformation band is predicted to pivot back westward later. 

 

As long as the low gets up to Evansville, Chicago is still very much in play.

NAM made me believe it was just supposed to sit over us all day, my bad. Thanks, Geos. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i think Evansville is out, never even knew it was in play but again my map reading prob leaves a lot to be desired... if it got there they'd have zero to worry about me thinks and would have some nice totals even nearing up your way.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NAM made me believe it was just supposed to sit over us all day, my bad. Thanks, Geos. 

 

Just dream about the 18z GFS run tonight!  :snowing:

 

To the SLP. Current position and EVV is NNE of there. Looking good to me.

 

post-7389-0-82682200-1456296728_thumb.pn

 

Edit: Too bad the low doesn't come a little farther north - like Bloomington, IN. then turns ENE.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Get out your super bestest magnet for that. 

 

I'm dreaming about all the sleep i could be getting right now if i never seen the 18z gfs.. what a tease that was only to not put out at 0z

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

At 06z, the low was down to about 991 mb just north of KMKL over western TN, which has a west wind of 10 kt and that 991 mb pressure. Since the low was just north of MKL, it's possible pressure is/was 990 mb. Comparing this to 06z position from the 00z runs, GFS and UKMET are closest, NAM is pretty close but a hair west and Euro is too far east, along with 4km NAM. I wouldn't get too worried about the recent runs of the RAP and HRRR yet. Best to just monitor obs and radar trends before jumping off a cliff.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Kinda funny how Evansville has become a benchmark of sorts.

do you forsee the low going near there..  i can't i wish though..  Normally my benchmark is a lot closer to NW of indy..  but this is coming out a different beast down south.  Anyways good luck there by you.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Latest RAP is pretty close to keeping us all snow, surprisingly.

HRRR is trending that way as well, definitely all snow from MTC to Ann Arbor north.

Also noticed dew points have dropped a tick or two over the area in the last 3 hours.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well that was very nice bedtime story from ricky  after i scared some to thoughts of jumping!

 

Good night for real this time.. I promise, no more of my rambling, you all can rejoice :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

do you forsee the low going near there..  i can't i wish though..  Normally my benchmark is a lot closer to NW of indy..  but this is coming out a different beast down south.  Anyways good luck there by you.

 

 

It could get close.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

At 06z, the low was down to about 991 mb just north of KMKL over western TN, which has a west wind of 10 kt and that 991 mb pressure. Since the low was just north of MKL, it's possible pressure is/was 990 mb. Comparing this to 06z position from the 00z runs, GFS and UKMET are closest, NAM is pretty close but a hair west and Euro is too far east, along with 4km NAM. I wouldn't get too worried about the recent runs of the RAP and HRRR yet. Best to just monitor obs and radar trends before jumping off a cliff.

 

Well said.  :clap:

 

It was pretty obvious the EURO was too far east.

 

FYI to anyone not knowing where MKL is, it is Jackson, TN.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Kinda funny how Evansville has become a benchmark of sorts.

 

Yeah I remember that was a location that was referenced many times with the original GHD storm back in 2011.  That ended up boding very well for this area, but just goes to show how different each storm is.  Evansville in 2011 with GHD #1 meant 18" here vs nothing to perhaps a few rogue flakes here in 2016.  Way tighter cold sector precip corridor with this storm.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It'll be interesting to see if the low center actually follows the path of the best pressure falls on that map (which would take the low between CVG and EVV).

 

But although it can be a good indicator, that doesn't always happen

 

If I extroplate my plot, Owensboro is the city it intersects. Not too far from EVV. ~25 miles.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.