Powerball Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 If I extroplate my plot, Owensboro is the city it intersects. Not too far from EVV. ~25 miles. Lowest observed pressure right now is over Clarksville, TN, which is about 50 miles NW of Nashville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 DEC has a snowfall mean of 8.1". Hoosier over 11" now. ORD pretty steady around 7". About 5" and change here. Still have a 2-18" spread here lol...but just noise level change in the mean compared to 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Yeah I remember that was a location that was referenced many times with the original GHD storm back in 2011. That ended up boding very well for this area, but just goes to show how different each storm is. Evansville in 2011 with GHD #1 meant 18" here vs nothing to perhaps a few rogue flakes here in 2016. Way tighter cold sector precip corridor with this storm. Normally this is not a bad track for my area, maybe a touch farther east than ideal. Gut punch to have the brutal cutoff as is progged. Anyway, things look to be on track with regards to the hi res runs from earlier. Chicago and northern Indiana are locked and loaded, and to think I thought this was an Ohio special for sure a 2 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Still have a 2-18" spread here lol...but just noise level change in the mean compared to 21z. You're pretty much locked in at the center point of the band, so at this point it's all about how much of a warning criteria snow you'll receive. I really can't see your area getting less than 6" no matter how terrible the ratios are. 14-18" isn't out of the realm of possibility, but probably not something you'd expect or forecast. 8-12" is the right forecast for there, with 10-11" looking money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 DEC has a snowfall mean of 8.1". Hoosier over 11" now. ORD pretty steady around 7". About 5" and change here. Thank You...looks like some solid numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Looking at winds and temperatures, the low looks to be over Kentucky Lake NE of Paris right now. Clarksville is firmly in the warm sector right now with ESE winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Normally this is not a bad track for my area, maybe a touch farther east than ideal. Gut punch to have the brutal cutoff as is progged. Anyway, things look to be on track with regards to the hi res runs from earlier. Chicago and northern Indiana are locked and loaded, and to think I thought this was an Ohio special for sure a 2 days ago. I just remember Chicago Storm and other posting updated track locations as the Euro rolled out back in the that time period before many of us had access to the Euro. Evansville was one of the locations mentioned many times as GHDI approached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I started with sleet. Not even a drop of rain. Down to 38". Crazy. Srefs have 4 over a foot where I am. Weenie'ing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Probably fair to say the absolute center is somewhere between Clarksville and Paris. Looking at winds and temperatures, the low looks to be over Kentucky Lake NE of Paris right now. Clarksville is firmly in the warm sector right now with ESE winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Probably doesn't matter much at this juncture, but the 06z NAM is a bit colder and wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 6z NAM has the gradient from hell right over Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 6z NAM has the gradient from hell right over Chicago. The changes at the sfc and aloft seem pretty miniscule compared to 00z. RC mentioned earlier that the 00z NAM sfc track may have been a touch too far west. Really it's hard to tell at this point whether this is noise that tries to snap back at 12z or a real trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 The changes at the sfc and aloft seem pretty miniscule compared to 00z. RC mentioned earlier that the 00z NAM sfc track may have been a touch too far west. Really it's hard to tell at this point whether this is noise that tries to snap back at 12z or a real trend.What's interesting is the sfc low track if anything is a hair west compared to 00z, but it tightened up the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 KDEC already had a gust of 40mph Wind Speed NE 32 G 40 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 FWIW, it's already precipitating at LAF, a bit ahead of the NAM which didn't have onset until about 40 minutes from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohiocat5908 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 New Meso analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 New MD for Illinois: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0136.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohiocat5908 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 That low position on their map seems awfully east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 FWIW, it's already precipitating at LAF, a bit ahead of the NAM which didn't have onset until about 40 minutes from now.Doesn't seem to be doing anything out my window atm, but whatever it was doing, everything is wet.Edit: my station is reading 33.4 and falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Looks like ILX just raised totals in east-central IL calling for 6-10" gusts to 50mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 At 9z, Hopkinsville KY has an east wind of 5 mph, so the surface low isn't far away. Pressure is 29.17" or about 988 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Definitely rain now, but temperature has dropped a degree since my last post and is just barely above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 407 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 INZ028-241715- /O.UPG.KIND.WS.W.0001.160224T1500Z-160225T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KIND.BZ.W.0001.160224T1500Z-160225T0600Z/ WARREN- 407 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TIMING...ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BEGIN BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM. * WINDS/VISIBILITY...WIND GUSTS OF OVER 35 MPH AND VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO DURING THE HEAVIEST SNOW. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 8 INCHES. * MAIN IMPACT...TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WITH WHITEOUT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN BAND OF HEAVY SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 My alerts just went off for a blizzard warning from LOT as well. A little annoyed Tippecanoe isn't in it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 My alerts just went off for a blizzard warning from LOT as well. A little annoyed Tippecanoe isn't in it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 text for Lake/Porter says potential isolated amounts up to 18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 NWS STL just upgraded to a WSW 5-7" Gusts to 45mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Interesting to note, models had the low closed off below 540dm at this point (09z). Right now, it's still an open wave at 546dm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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