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February Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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Anybody get the feeling the gfs is searching? The low it had in central Indiana Wed eve is now showing in east Tenn. at the same time. Where will it be by 12z? Hatteras?

 

Not to be a negative nancy, but if you still have faith about getting snow (not saying you do, just pointing it out) from this storm there is a better shot I wake up next to Emma Watson tomorrow morning. I already have my eyes peeled to early March, though those prospects aren't looking as good as they did a few days ago either. 

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Gfs did get rid of that first wave. But it also slowed down the trough so that the second wave rounds the base and starts to amp while the trough is still too far west for us. I think part of the problem is that northern stream system coming across the lakes. That really prevents the high from pushing down on the backside of the trough or letting the trough dig into the southeast. It pulls everything up towards the lakes. Looking back on the older gfs runs and euro time that were closer to a good storm here the second wave was the storm but that trough was faster and the front got shoved into the southeast before the storm got going. There was also not that lakes system.

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Not to be a negative nancy, but if you still have faith about getting snow (not saying you do, just pointing it out) from this storm there is a better shot I wake up next to Emma Watson tomorrow morning. I already have my eyes peeled to early March, though those prospects aren't looking as good as they did a few days ago either.

people keep saying that but based on what. The day 10-15 euro and cmc ens look the same today as they did yesterday. The gefs are bad but they were bad yesterday too. I feel like this storm trending bad has skewed people on the pattern after as well.
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Not to be a negative nancy, but if you still have faith about getting snow (not saying you do, just pointing it out) from this storm there is a better shot I wake up next to Emma Watson tomorrow morning. I already have my eyes peeled to early March, though those prospects aren't looking as good as they did a few days ago either.

With the volatile and inaccurate model runs, looking 10-15 days down the road is really grasping IMHO. Pay attention to this event next Thursday, we're still in the game.

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Not on par with the March 93 superstorm or the Cleveland superbomb yet. Judging by the negative tilt and the huge influx of moisture, I wouldn't be shocked to see it cross 40N sub 970mb.  Had to post this because it's the most awesome looking nonsnow event of the season.

 

f144.gif

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   hell, with that GFS solution of the low bombing out to our northwest, you could get tornadoes in the early morning hours in the Mid-Atlantic.....

maybe but that's a pretty big stretch for pre-dawn in Feb. winds are kind of unidirectional from sfc up a ways. good shear overall and a fun look but i'd probably take the under. :P

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   well yeah, verbatim the upper flow is way too backed, but it caught my eye to see the GFS showing low 60's here in the early morning with a 60 kt LLJ.

 

 

maybe but that's a pretty big stretch for pre-dawn in Feb. winds are kind of unidirectional from sfc up a ways. good shear overall and a fun look but i'd probably take the under. :P

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Model runs are amusing. GFS went from two weak systems to a hurricane tearing through WV. Good consistency I'll say ;-). Maybe the next run will fujiwara around the North Pole

Euro also bombing over KY now at 120.  Still could change their minds back but I think that setup looks pretty likely.

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