Amped Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Low bombs further south, better tornado outbreak along the Gulf coast this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Anybody get the feeling the gfs is searching? The low it had in central Indiana Wed eve is now showing in east Tenn. at the same time. Where will it be by 12z? Hatteras? Not to be a negative nancy, but if you still have faith about getting snow (not saying you do, just pointing it out) from this storm there is a better shot I wake up next to Emma Watson tomorrow morning. I already have my eyes peeled to early March, though those prospects aren't looking as good as they did a few days ago either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I wonder if this low bombs out through the Lakes and attempts to form a NAO.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Gfs did get rid of that first wave. But it also slowed down the trough so that the second wave rounds the base and starts to amp while the trough is still too far west for us. I think part of the problem is that northern stream system coming across the lakes. That really prevents the high from pushing down on the backside of the trough or letting the trough dig into the southeast. It pulls everything up towards the lakes. Looking back on the older gfs runs and euro time that were closer to a good storm here the second wave was the storm but that trough was faster and the front got shoved into the southeast before the storm got going. There was also not that lakes system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 What I like is that it's pulling in cold air on its backside a lot better than the previous solutions. 18z from ne Ohio to 0z western WV. One and a half more corrections and we may have a ball game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Not to be a negative nancy, but if you still have faith about getting snow (not saying you do, just pointing it out) from this storm there is a better shot I wake up next to Emma Watson tomorrow morning. I already have my eyes peeled to early March, though those prospects aren't looking as good as they did a few days ago either. people keep saying that but based on what. The day 10-15 euro and cmc ens look the same today as they did yesterday. The gefs are bad but they were bad yesterday too. I feel like this storm trending bad has skewed people on the pattern after as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Hm...@ 156 hours it looks like it might do that.... Instead of one huge big ULL like the 18z had we have 2, one near Hudson Bay, and the other over Maine....Let's see what it leads to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Not to be a negative nancy, but if you still have faith about getting snow (not saying you do, just pointing it out) from this storm there is a better shot I wake up next to Emma Watson tomorrow morning. I already have my eyes peeled to early March, though those prospects aren't looking as good as they did a few days ago either. With the volatile and inaccurate model runs, looking 10-15 days down the road is really grasping IMHO. Pay attention to this event next Thursday, we're still in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 That ridge between the two systems really enhances the Phase, The second that breaks the low explodes and quadruples in size. Of course on earlier runs when the low was further east, this same feature was killing the phase somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Hm...@ 156 hours it looks like it might do that.... Instead of one huge big ULL like the 18z had we have 2, one near Hudson Bay, and the other over Maine....Let's see what it leads to. gfs is still shifting the storm 200 miles run to run and you want to see what happens after it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I wonder what the EURO is going to do tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 With the volatile and inaccurate model runs, looking 10-15 days down the road is really grasping IMHO. Pay attention to this event next Thursday, we're still in the game. As long as the phase with the northern stream happens we're probably screwed. A cutter that's shifted from OH to PA is still a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 As long as the phase with the northern stream happens we're probably screwed. A cutter that's shifted from OH to PA is still a cutter. True, but with the volatility, who can really predict if that phase will be there tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Not on par with the March 93 superstorm or the Cleveland superbomb yet. Judging by the negative tilt and the huge influx of moisture, I wouldn't be shocked to see it cross 40N sub 970mb. Had to post this because it's the most awesome looking nonsnow event of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 hell, with that GFS solution of the low bombing out to our northwest, you could get tornadoes in the early morning hours in the Mid-Atlantic..... Low bombs further south, better tornado outbreak along the Gulf coast this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 We damn near get wrap-around snow showers from this thing! Talk about a monster. I think HighZ mentioned it above but almost wonder if this would help a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I wonder what the EURO is going to do tonight. preview: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 preview: Needs more wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Needs more wind. Too green. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 hell, with that GFS solution of the low bombing out to our northwest, you could get tornadoes in the early morning hours in the Mid-Atlantic..... maybe but that's a pretty big stretch for pre-dawn in Feb. winds are kind of unidirectional from sfc up a ways. good shear overall and a fun look but i'd probably take the under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 well yeah, verbatim the upper flow is way too backed, but it caught my eye to see the GFS showing low 60's here in the early morning with a 60 kt LLJ. maybe but that's a pretty big stretch for pre-dawn in Feb. winds are kind of unidirectional from sfc up a ways. good shear overall and a fun look but i'd probably take the under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Model runs are amusing. GFS went from two weak systems to a hurricane tearing through WV. Good consistency I'll say ;-). Maybe the next run will fujiwara around the North Pole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 euro is as ugly as a model run can get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Model runs are amusing. GFS went from two weak systems to a hurricane tearing through WV. Good consistency I'll say ;-). Maybe the next run will fujiwara around the North Pole Euro also bombing over KY now at 120. Still could change their minds back but I think that setup looks pretty likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Euro also bombing over KY now at 120. Still could change their minds back but I think that setup looks pretty l went from 20 inches of snow to zero in 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Euro also bombing over KY now at 120. Still could change their minds back but I think that setup looks pretty likely. Wind swept heavy rain, storms, 50's, gusting to 50 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 This could very well be the "One and Done" winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 This could very well be the "One and Done" winter.we've had 3 events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Not in my neck of the woods. Had the blizzard and then about 2.5" before it changed to rain in the last system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 we've had 3 events One big event. Other two weren't big events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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