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GHD III possible Winter Storm February 1st-3rd


Thundersnow12

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Seems a little early to be throwing in the towel, but the chances of the main storm being a pure snowstorm this far east are slim to nil. Hoping for a front-end thump/ice storm as a consolation prize.

There never was a chance of this being a snowstorm around here. Just too much ridging in front of the storm that results in a far NW track. Front end snow/ice looks very dismal as well. Oh well.

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Geos I just posted that lol 

 

ha, The graphic didn't load on the page quick enough, so I kinda missed it. Changed it to the GEFS maps instead.

 

Can't put a whole lot of stock in the EURO, just because of its record this winter.

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There's no rhyme nor reason to the EURO's way off solutions 48 hours + out. They've gone both ways this winter, which makes it harder to try to understand what it is doing. It would be one thing if it had a NW bias or a SE one, then we could make a logical guess with some confidence. Last time the EURO had a big storm like this was the snow and sleet one and it was taking the low way too far west... until the last 36 hours.

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to add to the pile of things to keep an eye....looking over the 12z runs for giggles (nothing serious)...

 

The 12Z GGEM has a decent (970 SLP) storm nearing the GOA where as the 12Z GFS has a much weaker system there (if at all).  Ahead of this storm, the heights pump higher along the pacific coast on the the 12Z GGEM creating a nice little pac ridge.  This doesn't happen on the GFS and allows the backside of the CONUS trough to flatten out and go negative fairly swiftly in response (in comparison)  All FWIW and just something I noticed poking around at stuff...

 

timeframe I was looking at was 12Z 02FEB

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Said it earlier, very much like GHD I where you have waves running along the baroclinic zone off to the ENE or NE ahead of the main ejecting wave. 

 

I remember that. Wish I would have been on the forum when that happened.

 

168

 

prateptypeconus.png

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This has had Skilling's attention since yesterday evening's broadcast. He just mentioned this system again, said he is certain there will be good winter storm, alluding to it being west of the Chicago area. He is concerned with the polling going on in Iowa on Monday

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This has had Skilling's attention since yesterday evening's broadcast. He just mentioned this system again, said he is certain there will be good winter storm, alluding to it being west of the Chicago area. He is concerned with the polling going on in Iowa on Monday

 

Monday would be fine in Iowa, until really late in the day in western Iowa.

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