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John1122

1-17-16 Winter Storm

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I'd buy what the GFS is selling for a dollar. I'm also not getting excited until we have some consensus from other models.

 

Exactly right. 

 

Which ever model caves its going to be a massive cave.  Its all about timing of the features.  Which model is handling that timing better?

 

True!  I would not be surprised either way.  I tend to have my  doubts about suppressed systems in a Super Nino.  Also, IMO the Euro has done pretty poorly w/ system #1 this weekend.  Had it as a Lakes cutter.  Almost a repeat of last weekend.  Now, it has a pretty powerful storm off of Hatteras Fri-Sat.  As a matter of fact, that storm is probably causing the issues w/ the second storm due to spacing and the strength of storm #1 as it heads NNE.  But anyway, a much different solution IMO than the Euro had a few days ago.  The GFS seemed to catch the deepening of storm #1 before the Euro did this week.  All of that said, the Euro is King for a reason...  But the GFS also sniffed out the pattern change before the Euro for the second straight winter.  I would weight the Euro @ 60% and GFS at 40%.  And that may be a bit generous to the GFS.  But hell, this is a lot better than watching 70s painted across my point and click forecast.

 

And John, thanks for starting the thread!  I have been busy today, so it was nice to take a quick look at the forum this AM and have your update already on the forum.

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There's very little difference in the models actually in regards to the set up. But the small difference in timing makes for a big big difference in weather on the ground.

My biggest concern with either model is that the Euro is so extremely suppressed. We don't often see impulses ride towards Cuba like that in reality. I think it will eventually come north with its solution, but not sure if it will go full on GFS, which is what we need to happen.

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Collection of most recent region NWS discos on this subject:

 

MRX:

 

 

GFS WANTS TO BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP TO THE AREA SATURDAY

NIGHT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH...BUT HAS
LITTLE SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS.  FOR NOW JUST SOME LOW POPS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS. 

 

OHX:

 

 

 

A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SCOOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING, BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER, EXCEPT TO SWING SOME MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL
BKN-TO-OVC CIGS OUR WAY.

 

HUN:

 

 

 

THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAIN LESS THAN
CERTAIN, BUT HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH THE ECWMF MODEL IN THE SPLIT
FLOW REGIME. THE NEXT SRN STREAM SYSTEM IS DEPICTED BY BOTH THE GFS
AND ECWMF, BUT THE ECWMF TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY PATH INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH A DEEPER UPPER TROF/VORTEX DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS SOLUTION BRINGS ANOTHER DRY ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS AS THIS EVOLVES
IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

 

FFC:

 

 

 

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH/SHORT WAVE AND GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE THIS WAY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE VASTLY DIFFERENT WITH THE EUROPEAN MAINLY
DRY AS IT KEEPS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE S AND THE GFS WANTING TO
PRODUCE SNOW FOR N GA WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE. THE FORECAST IS VERY
MUCH A COMPROMISE UNTIL WE CAN GET A BETTER HANDLE ON WHAT IS MOST
LIKELY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR MUCH OF NORTH GA.

 

GSP:

 

 

 

AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN FORCING ON
SATURDAY...A MORE PROMINENT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL SHUTTLE
QUICKLY EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIFT NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE SUNDAY...WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF
DEEPER FORCING MAINLY ON SUNDAY MORNING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES COULD
WELL BE BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE REGION SUNDAY...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A TRICKY RAIN/SNOW LINE FORECAST. THE ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS
SURFACE LOW TRACK SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST TO KEEP ANY HEAVIER
QPF EAST OF THE CRITICAL SNOW THICKNESSES.

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The Euro also has Waffled around a bit. It actually had the impulse about 250 miles north of 12z at 00z, which was well north of 12z yesterday. So it's been making some big jumps from run to run. Hard to say that it's accurate or right when it's making major moves from run to run. It could still be correct in that the system stays south of us, but I won't say it scored a coup from this range when it's showing such a wide range of tracks.

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The Euro also has Waffled around a bit. It actually had the impulse about 250 miles north of 12z at 00z, which was well north of 12z yesterday. So it's been making some big jumps from run to run. Hard to say that it's accurate or right when it's making major moves from run to run. It could still be correct in that the system stays south of us, but I won't say it scored a coup from this range when it's showing such a wide range of tracks.

 

I'm curious to see the spread of low locations on this upcoming EPS run.

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The Euro also has Waffled around a bit. It actually had the impulse about 250 miles north of 12z at 00z, which was well north of 12z yesterday. So it's been making some big jumps from run to run. Hard to say that it's accurate or right when it's making major moves from run to run. It could still be correct in that the system stays south of us, but I won't say it scored a coup from this range when it's showing such a wide range of tracks.

 

I know this is our short range thread...but the GFS and Euro diverge greatly between days 8-10.  The 2M temp anomalies are almost the opposite.  So, really we are going to be looking at short term and long term verification. 

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We also have to remember our energy is sitting out way out in the pacific about 30 hours from shore.  Maybe as we get sampling in little more than a day out we will get better modeling in general.  Also NAM, albeit at the end of its modeling is pushing the low down into east central Mexico.

 

Roughly current position of our possible storm:

post-11228-0-93037500-1452714157_thumb.j

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Here's the spread of low locations on the 12z Euro ensembles:

 

Hour 90:

vaAhNnU.png

 

Hour 96:

7gFyyki.png

 

Hour 102:

hgbNDNj.png

 

Edit:  A few members get some precip up into eastern NC but mostly they're either suppressed or straight out to sea.

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Latest from MRX (they are following the EURO)

 

 

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

MODELS SHOW LIMITED PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVES FOR FRIDAY...BUT ENOUGH FRONTAL-GENETIC LIFT TO PRODUCE
LIKELY CHANCES OF SHOWERS. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ON THE
BACK SIDE.

BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS FOR THIS WEEKEND.
GFS SUGGEST A GOOD SNOWFALL AREA-WIDE WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE IN THE GULF. A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DOES EFFECT THE
AREA SUNDAY BRINGING RETURN OF COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES...BUT LIMITED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

WILL TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF SINCE ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO TRENDING DRIER
AND COLDER WITH MORE OF A NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE.

COLD AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND.
 

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Much better spacing on the NAM at 18z, hour 60.  Let's see where it goes

 

There also appears to be more interaction between streams as it comes into TX. (as compared to 12z)

 

sx0LrlN.jpg

 

Jokes aside, at least the NAM wasn't Euro-ish.  Let's see if 18z GFS holds steady.

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Anyone know how much of the GFS data the para GFS also uses?  It makes sense to me the 12z para would be similar to the regular gfs during the same hour....

 

What is the link for the para GFS?

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Anyone know how much of the GFS data the para GFS also uses? It makes sense to me the 12z para would be similar to the regular gfs during the same hour....

should be the same data it's just an upgraded version of the gfs.

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The 0z GFS is slowly getting drier. I bet we see a middle of the road solution that is in between the Euro/GFS. I think the GFS is probably closer to what will happen than the Euro. To me it looked like the Euro is trying to leave to much energy behind. Anyways it is going to be tough to get a good winter storm out of this one for us. Maybe an inch or two for NC at the most.

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18z para GFS just coming in and it has virtually nothing for us.

Not surprising, the way things have been going for us. Furthermore, the strong soi rise and re-intensification of the nino doesn't bode well either. Thanks to that, what looked to be a possible similar outcome to 1958 appears to be vanishing.

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Three 500 mb vorticity lobes are in play. In addition to those over the Gulf Coast and Great Lakes, a weaker but pivotal third Mid South vort max slides through.

 

If the Mid South max slightly trails the bigger Gulf Coast max, and the Mid South max slides through TN and NC, snow chances are better thanks to a neutral or slightly better tilt. Door is also more open to an inverted trough surprise this scenario.

 

If the Mid South max gets even slightly ahead of the bigger one and/or slices toward SC, snow chances almost vanish. Trouble is related to both slight positive tilt and subsidence behind the weakest Mid South vort max. Subsidence might be weak, but with the main system south such subsidence squashes inverted trough help. 

 

Great Lakes or Upper Midwest vort lobe still plays a role, also influencing the Mid South max. Upper MW vort max from Minneapolis to Milwaukee has slightly less influence South. Upper MW vort max dropping just over Chicago appears to kick the Mid South max faster relative to the Gulf Coast vort max. If you like snow, billiard ball meteorology requires that Upper MW max to hook more north. 

 

GFS started to discern the Mid South max better overnight and the 12Z GFS fell in line with the Euro on the matter. Yesterday GFS either did not discern the Mid South max, or just combined it with the Gulf Coast one. Euro had it separate or nearly so, and now the GFS does too. 

 

Historical note: Euro did miss the February 2015 all snow inverted trough, but the miss was about 5 days out. At days 3-4 the Euro actually leapfrogged the GFS in track and consistency for the Feb snow. This event approaching 72 hours they remained as divergent as the Central Banks easing/tightening, lol!

 

Enter the NAM. I really don't trust it from the 60-84 hour period except for temperature trends. NAM really gets good storm tracking around 48 hours. All that said, NAM is slightly improving the Mid South deal. Might have to do with the Upper Midwest lobe, which is contains two vort maxima. NAM trending toward first lead MKE vort max having more influence, with second reaching ORD after our event anyway. Again until it is about 48 hours out I'm not holding my breath.

 

Bottom line: Although the NAM leaves a crack of hope it is still just beyond 60 hours. GFS has shifted toward the Euro. Mainly inside 72 hours I expect agreement to only tighten.

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I don't really want to reinvest in this system, but the trends in modeling are really trying to reel me back in. What's the saying..........fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice and I must be a weather "sucker"?

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