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January 15-16 Storm Threat


Hoosier

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Anything is possible. But have we not learned anything after this past weekend storm? Lol nothing will be set in stone yet.

 

At least this one is only five days out.

 

Waiting the euro ensemble.No doubt another last minute shift and some happy and others not so happy.Amazing how it appears the east gets screwed again.

 

  Used  to live  in Midland.Wondering if this is the weekend to visit old friends or maybe believe in the GFS and stay in Wisconsin.

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Synoptically different, but looks like it could be the same sensible weather results here as this past weekend. Warm sector rain with a little snow to end it and then much colder.

Wash rinse, repeat.

Story of winter 2015-16.

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Even the warm, rainy solutions aren't that warm and cold quickly returns. With a nice snowpack finally in place, i will be hoping for junk if it's not a snowstorm. Keep the rain away.

A nice snowpack will be TBD after tonight's/tomorrow's event. 3" of snow OTG is not s "nice snowpack" it's a start.

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Lol ok then try this one on for size. Even if there was no snow, I get NOTHING about the "at least it's active" mantra that some have for 30s and rain. Extended commutes & bone chilling dampness? Give me dry & cold any day over that.

we need to stop trying to justify why we like the weather we do... it's like chocolate milk, idky I like it I just do.
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Lol ok then try this one on for size. Even if there was no snow, I get NOTHING about the "at least it's active" mantra that some have for 30s and rain. Extended commutes & bone chilling dampness? Give me dry & cold any day over that.

 

Commutes are not that extended in cold rain.  An inch of snow on the other hand?  Can be horrendous, hence like Powerball a lot of us are 'go big or go home' on snow events.  This is not saying I like cold rain, I despise it, but still probably better than cold and dry unless there's a lot of snowpack.

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Commutes are not that extended in cold rain. An inch of snow on the other hand? Can be horrendous, hence like Powerball a lot of us are 'go big or go home' on snow events. This is not saying I like cold rain, I despise it, but still probably better than cold and dry unless there's a lot of snowpack.

As bo said, to each their own. And I can assure you that my commute home during rush hour is most definitely increased when it's raining ;)
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Commutes are not that extended in cold rain.  An inch of snow on the other hand?  Can be horrendous, hence like Powerball a lot of us are 'go big or go home' on snow events.  This is not saying I like cold rain, I despise it, but still probably better than cold and dry unless there's a lot of snowpack.

 

Same here

 

Cold rain >> Deep freeze

 

I wouldn't have said that 2 years ago, but after the last two winters... I've already sick of arctic intrusions.

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it's a mega nino, so yeah....that jet has no problem pushing out any cold air that tries to establish over the continent

 

True, it's not the same pattern as last year, but... Nothing will resemble Decembers pattern for the rest of the winter. January will end up normal. +/- normal.

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For the record, my argument for a more southerly track is not the depth of the cold air, but the placement of the downstream blocking. The right H5 pattern can dislodge cold of any magnitude. And if a whole piece of the PV rotates back and phases early with main s/w like the NAM's doing at 84, then a much warmer solution is possible. But for that to happen everything is going to have to be timed perfect. I think a warmer solution is a "thread the needle" solution, and though it's currently being advertised by the NCEP models and GGEM, I'd still say it's improbable.

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