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downeastnc

2016 Severe Weather Thread

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So what do folks think of the chance of seeing some storms in NC today?

If you lived in Fayetteville, there's a pretty good chance. ;)

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Right now, looks like it's leaning more towards the 'scattered' vs. the 'numerous'... however it's still early.

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I'd say our chance is gone for today. Everything stays west and south of the Saluda River in upstate SC thanks to the clouds from the morning storms to our northwest. And yep there is a great chance the GSP metro stays mostly dry these next 3 afternoons.

Isohomey and GSP airport , looked to have gotten rocked by that storm!

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Isohomey and GSP airport , looked to have gotten rocked by that storm!

Most of the area is still dry though and GSP is hinting that tomorrow may not be much better. As for Friday, that chance of rain is GONE. Maybe something will fall around here next week.

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grapefruit size here today 

Grapefruit size what? Rocks? Only large hail showing is in Missouri. Did you move?

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My father and I are going to be out in the plains on and off for the rest of the month for our Chasecation. We arrived in Oklahoma on May 9. We originally planned to target Alva, ok, but changed our mind and decided to head south on I-35 then to I-44 towards Lawton, ok. We then picked this storm(picture #1). We awaited on a hill a good distance from the storm looking wsw towards the wall cloud. We didn't stay in this region for too long as the Lightning was getting incredibly dangerous. One lightning bolt struck within hundreds of yards of our truck. On the way, headed east, a storm chaser waved us down notifying us that his vehicle was locked for ten minutes due to a safety feature. We picked up this individual and headed east. We floated around the hook for some time then entered into the rfd. This is where the tornado passed within 500 yards of our location at the end of its cycle.

post-12398-0-23601000-1463014568_thumb.p

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Our initially position the next morning was Oklahoma City, ok. We noticed that the key energy for initiation was lagging. There was also a outflow boundary draped across this region. The HRRR hinted at a few cells on I-35 south of Oklahoma City, ok. One was highlighted on the updraft helicity. We then headed down towards I-35 towards Wynnewood when we noticed a storm developing to the west. The supercell quickly developed. Next, a supercell developed on the southern end of that one. We saw a wall cloud develop rapidly. We turned around on that road to head farther east away from the hail core as we were looking sw towards the new wall cloud. Less then two minutes down the road, I looked to my left and noticed the tornado was on the ground. My jaw dropped. We took some videos and pictures until it lifted. We headed farther east. I noticed on radar that the circulation had tighten up again. We turned south on a road and was very anxious as trees were blocking the view. Boom. At the top of the hill we looked right and a beautiful stovepipe tornado. We took video and pictures. The video came out bad as it was my first time really seeing a tornado vividly. After that, we had to head south to escape the hailcore. Next, we headed into sulphur, then east up a hill. Where we saw the most amazing storm structure I have ever witnessed. Beautiful mesocyclone with a large wedge tornado underneath. There was a circulation to our right. I saw a rope drop out of it very quickly but couldn't get my camera in time before it lifted. After that, we headed east and saw the bromide, tornado. Later, we got stuck behind for too long. We missed the atoka tornado. Although, I will say we might have actually saw it out in the distance but not sure. After, we chased all the way to Hugo where we saw insane mammatus clouds. 4 tornadoes that day. EF-4,EF-3,EF-3,EF-1.

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Lucky, one of these days I am gonna do a chasecation....

I'm down to go with and help with cost, maybe in the next year or two if you're interested.

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I'm down to go with and help with cost, maybe in the next year or two if you're interested.

 

That would work but it will be more than a few years before I can pull it off most likely. It would be fun though to do it with a group of fellow storm junkies. 

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upgrade to slight for MBY ....cloudy here now though so not sure how much we will destabilize, vis shot isnt exactly screaming sun. 

 

 

..ERN CAROLINAS/SE VA THIS AFTN...
POCKETS OF ENHANCED DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...MID-LVL COOLING/ASCENT
WITH SRN PART OF APPROACHING UPR IMPULSE...AND CONFLUENT SSWLY
LOW-LVL FLOW AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD PROMOTE
CLUSTERS/SHORT LINES OF TSTMS FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS NNE INTO SERN
VA TODAY. WIND PROFILES WILL REMAIN COMPARATIVELY MODEST AND LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL...BUT SUPPORTIVE OF OCCASIONAL SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DEEP SHEAR AND ASCENT WITH SWD EXTENT SHOULD
LIMIT SVR THREAT SWWD INTO GA AND NRN FL.

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Didn't have any storms at all Wednesday when under the slight risk, but had a storm roll through last night. Funny how that works. Hope the storms miss us today so my son can finally have a baseball game. Looks like I am right on the line with the marginal and slight risk.

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So yesterday a few storm cells popped up in my area and I took a photo of this... It clearly looks like a small funnel cloud.. but heres the kicker.. The storm was moving only at 10 mph and had minimal to traces of surface wind.. Plus the storm was not severe warned at all... What do you guys think this is?

post-13222-0-23344900-1463695202_thumb.j

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From MHX this morning:

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...ALONG WITH AMARGINAL THREAT FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THE BESTCHANCE WILL BE EAST OF HIGHWAY 17...WITH THE MAIN THREAT STRONGWIND GUSTS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUTHOWEVER...ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY THROUGH THE OUTERBANKS.

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Looks like Iso might see something shortly.

AT 815 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ELON COLLEGE...  OR NEAR BURLINGTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE           TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  BURLINGTON...GRAHAM...MEBANE...ELON COLLEGE...GIBSONVILLE...HAW RIVER...  SWEPSONVILLE...ALAMANCE...LAKE MACKINTOSH MARINA AND CANE CREEK  RESERVOIR.

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Looks like Iso might see something shortly.

AT 815 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ELON COLLEGE...

OR NEAR BURLINGTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE

TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

BURLINGTON...GRAHAM...MEBANE...ELON COLLEGE...GIBSONVILLE...HAW RIVER...

SWEPSONVILLE...ALAMANCE...LAKE MACKINTOSH MARINA AND CANE CREEK

RESERVOIR.

nice storm... :) some pea hail and gusty winds

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DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT FRI JUN 03 2016

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF ERN VA...ERN
NC...THE DELMARVA...FAR SERN PA AND NJ...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL PA TO NEW YORK CITY
AND SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO ERN GA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE ERN STATES
EXCLUDING NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAIL...A FEW TORNADOES
AND DAMAGING WIND ARE POSSIBLE. MORE ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES...AND AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN NEW YORK.

...SYNOPSIS...
A NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE OH VALLEY
NEWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY WITH SFC LOW DEEPENING ACROSS
SRN ONTARIO. A WIND SHIFT/SFC TROUGH WILL EXTEND SWD FROM THE
LOW...ROUGHLY FROM CNTRL NY INTO PA AND SWWD ALONG THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON. WITH STRENGTHENING SLY SFC
FLOW...MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD AS FAR N
AS ERN PA AND NJ...SUPPORTING SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR SEVERE
STORMS GIVEN AMPLE LIFT AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES.

...MID ATLANTIC REGION...
AMPLE MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL COUNTERACT RELATIVELY WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND YIELD AROUND ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG MUCAPE
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR BY MID AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR PROFILES ARE
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES. MEAN FLOW OF 40-50 KT IN THE 850-500 LAYER WITH
INCREASING SPEED SHEAR IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LONG
HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR LONG-LIVED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A FEW
SUPERCELLS. GRADUALLY VEERING 850 MB FLOW AND THE ABSENCE OF A
SURGING COLD FRONT SUGGEST SUPERCELLS AS THE DOMINANT STORM MODE
DURING THE DAY...WITH PERHAPS MERGING OF CELLS LATER IN THE EVENING
AS STORMS EXIT THE COAST. HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...NERN GULF COAST INTO SWRN GA...
THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SWWD INTO NRN GA/AL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS. EARLY RAIN
AND STORMS MAY AFFECT DESTABILIZATION...BUT POCKETS OF HEATING
SHOULD YIELD NEW DEVELOPMENT OR A REJUVENATION OF EXISTING ACTIVITY
FROM GA INTO AL AND INTO NRN FL DURING THE DAY. MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL OR WIND IS POSSIBLE.

..JEWELL.. 06/03/2016

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Mike Maze from WRAL said we could be in a moderate risk by the time we get to Sunday.

 

If the timing speeds up and there is not a lot of trash around in the morning then maybe.....right now the models have the line hitting 7pm and later that would make me lean towards less severe, if its 6 hrs faster then central and eastern NC could get hammered...

 

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RAH showed three rounds of storms in their briefing today starting in the morning.

 

Will probably turn into morning showers, followed by debris clouds, followed by clearing around 4, followed by a broken line of around 20-30% coverage of thundershowers.

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