Stovepipe Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 The teleconnections look particularly good on the EPS weeklies into February which is encouraging to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I might add that the 12z EPS has the system at 120 over Louisiana, 132 over southwest GA, 144 SC/NC coast. Then it slides out to sea. If it is there at 12z tomorrow, it has my interest. The currenr storm may shake things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 The teleconnections look particularly good on the EPS weeklies into February which is encouraging to see. Good catch, Stove! Those look particularly good. Been a while since I looked at the horizon having been focused on this storm so long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 The teleconnections look particularly good on the EPS weeklies into February which is encouraging to see. It may be true that February will start off on a mild note, if only for a few days. But even in the 11 - 15 day forecast (compiled using the ESRL program with suitable analogs), you can see the mechanisms for change in terms of temperature and winter precipitation. We have a vigorous storm sequence stretching from eastern Asia into the West Coast. An active equatorial forcing zone in an incoherent phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Widespread snow cover over much of Eurasia into North America (although the ice sheets over the Arctic Circle are greatly compromised). The matter of a weakening El Nino episode. And the parameter many have ignored this winter, yet another case of impressive stratospheric warming. A forecasting rule I have observed is that if an SSW event occurs before Valentine's Day, and eliminates at least half of the circumpolar vortex cold pool, 500MB and surface reactions to the colder side will follow between 7 and 14 days afterward. One burst of warming at 10MB is already underway, with yet another (and stronger) rise in high atmospheric readings developing in the longer term. The orientation of likely effects seems to be placed over eastern Asia and North America, with the remnant upper gyre rolling over western Russia into Scandinavia. The middle levels of the atmosphere have been forecast to undergo changes to include more -EPO and -AO styled blocking for the past six runs of the longer term model ensemble packages. The deep trough across the West evacuates first into the Great Plains February 2 - 4, then accelerates into the lower Great lakes and St. Lawrence Valley. This action creates progression of the 500MB trough to about 80 deg Longitude by the end of the 11 - 15 day time frame. And yes, there is near-unanimous agreement among the ensemble series on this scenario. The vigorous subtropical jet stream will start to interact with individual shortwaves embedded in, and moving through, the mean trough complex. While I do not see any impressive Midwest or Eastern Seaboard snow and ice threats as we end the first week of February, I suspect that type of situation is likely after February 7. The continued presence of blocking signatures (I think -AO and eventually -NAO signatures will be a routine fixture next month) keeps cold air advection in play, and might just afford a more southern advance for an Arctic intrusion by Valentine's Day. I maintain my prediction idea that we will not lose this winter set-up until the third week of March. If the 1957-58 winter analog continues to work well, we face the risk of at least one more major Deep South and East Coast snow and ice event and perhaps three long-lived Arctic air mass arrivals into the eastern two-thirds of the nation. And when Spring does arrive, the march toward a negative/neutral ENSO suggests a very wet MAMJ period with many severe weather threats and returning cases of unusually warm temperatures. May you live in exciting times.... Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on Saturday, January 23, 2016 at 10:00 P.M. CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Next big system to watch and effect us around the 2-3 of Feb , coming off East Asia today.could be anything.Looks more thunder to me right now with no phasing being shown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 12z Euro flirting w/ something from 102-120h along the SE to MA coast. Mildly intrigued. 12z GEFS supports this idea. Not saying this will impact our weather. Would need to come north and west for this to happen...but not by much. Far less certain than this past storm. Just something to keep an eye on. Other than that...I am chilling for a few days unless the EPS comes in w/ something unexpected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 12z Euro flirting w/ something from 102-120h along the SE to MA coast. Mildly intrigued. 12z GEFS supports this idea. Not saying this will impact our weather. Would need to come north and west for this to happen...but not by much. Far less certain than this past storm. Just something to keep an eye on. Other than that...I am chilling for a few days unless the EPS comes in w/ something unexpected. I wonder why I root for snow storms when I have to shovel all of this stuff lol. This is some of the wettest snow I've shoveled. I'm not too intrigued currently about the mid week threat. The Ukie a few runs ago showed a cutoff low which is vastly different than the other models. I would give us a 20% chance of seeing something. If the trough starts tilting more negatively then we will see some further northwest solutions come into play. Past this little threat it looks like our good pattern will relax and we will warm up for 1-2 weeks. There is a strong signal for a big storm in the Plains in about a weeks time. The teleconnections look good heading into the bulk of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Carvers I just looked at the 12z Euro and it looks really close at the 500mb to being really good. My interesting in this storm has went up just a little bit. Another problem would be the cold air, but if it bombs out it would drag more cold air in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Here is the BSR off Joe Renkens blog for tomorrow,they drew this up a couple weeks ago,pretty close.The bottom is the 16th give a day or two We estimated the bsr to be ~378 miles from what actually happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 All the models have been showing this storm with widely varying tracks. The GFS is way off shore currently with it. This is the NAV from 18z. Use the old school rule regarding the NOGAPS, NAVGEM's father. If the NOGAPS is west of the other guidance, look for them to come west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Use the old school rule regarding the NOGAPS, NAVGEM's father. If the NOGAPS is west of the other guidance, look for them to come west. Appreciate your contributions to our subforum. Are you a meteorologist? If so, we need to get you a red tag... EPS 12z cluster of lows would argue for a more northwest low placement in the deep southeast than what the operational currently shows at 12z. Think this system (late week) may be a southern apps threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Carvers I just looked at the 12z Euro and it looks really close at the 500mb to being really good. My interesting in this storm has went up just a little bit. Another problem would be the cold air, but if it bombs out it would drag more cold air in. Canadian ensemble mean, JMA, GEFS, and EPS have it. There is a low in the Lakes. That has caused issues w/ our thermal profile during past events this winter. But...definitely going to watch it. I am a big fan of storms forming on fronts that make it into the GOM. I am not sure we have enough cold air at this point. But give a Miller A in January w/ snow pack to our north...interesting for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Appreciate your contributions to our subforum. Are you a meteorologist? If so, we need to get you a red tag... EPS 12z cluster of lows would argue for a more northwest low placement in the deep southeast than what the operational currently shows at 12z. Think this system (late week) may be a southern apps threat. You can follow their maps here http://beringsearule.blogspot.com/p/bsr-forecast-maps.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Appreciate your contributions to our subforum. Are you a meteorologist? If so, we need to get you a red tag... EPS 12z cluster of lows would argue for a more northwest low placement in the deep southeast than what the operational currently shows at 12z. Think this system (late week) may be a southern apps threat. I do not hold a meteorology degree. That being said...I have a few research papers out on the Bering Sea Rule as WarEagle has shown via the link he gave. So...I am not familiar with the 'red tag policy' of American since I'm not "official". That being said...I agree with the Southern Apps and Southern MidAtl. It might make it as far North as Philly...but I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 I'm not sure on this one. The NW trend is legendary. I'm as interested if not more so in seeing the indexes all going back favorable by February 5th or 6th. If they do we can make hay in mid February again this year. Historically in snowy Nino years, once it warms up (if we get cold) it stays pretty warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 18z GFS has some backside snow on the northwest fringe of the precip. Gives an inch or two for the mountains. Euro control gave the mountain 2-3 inches and some snow to the valley too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I do not hold a meteorology degree. That being said...I have a few research papers out on the Bering Sea Rule as WarEagle has shown via the link he gave. So...I am not familiar with the 'red tag policy' of American since I'm not "official". That being said...I agree with the Southern Apps and Southern MidAtl. It might make it as far North as Philly...but I don't know. Definitely have heard of the Bering Sea Rule. Thanks for posting over here today. Stop by any time. Have added your site to the list of sites I visit on a regular basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I'm not sure on this one. The NW trend is legendary. I'm as interested if not more so in seeing the indexes all going back favorable by February 5th or 6th. If they do we can make hay in mid February again this year. Historically in snowy Nino years, once it warms up (if we get cold) it stays pretty warm. Ditto on being interested in the indices for the second week of February going forward. Hoping that climatology that favors cool Februarys helps. But yeah, I hear what you are saying on the warm-up pattern of Ninos. Could be a great month w if we can get some cold to combine w/ the Nino. Wavelengths change-up about mid-February. That can also help. I am iffy on the late week system as well, mainly because models are just notorious for trying to follow a big storm w/ another big storm. Many times that doesn't work out. But...that does happen sometimes. The low over the GL is probably my biggest concern. The ensembles have really picked up on a Miller A signal this afternoon. Tomorrow should help quite a bit in terms of actually determining if this actually goes OTS or up the coast. Also, I reminded of how much the models changed last week once the system was properly sampled. Bit more of an outside shot IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Definitely have heard of the Bering Sea Rule. Thanks for posting over here today. Stop by any time. Have added your site to the list of sites I visit on a regular basis. Great to hear! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Definitely have heard of the Bering Sea Rule. Thanks for posting over here today. Stop by any time. Have added your site to the list of sites I visit on a regular basis. We should get his link added to the Useful Weather Links sticky post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 We should get his link added to the Useful Weather Links sticky post. Will try to get that on there tomorrow. Have some other links that folks have shared as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Bearing Sea blog has been just added Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Bearing Sea blog has been just added Awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 The NAM is trying to make things interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 The late-week system appears very unlikely to have significant impacts on our wx(winter variety) here in the Valley. That could change, but almost no modelling suggests we are getting winter wx from it. Long term, many of the models are showing a spell of seasonal temps(some days above) for the next 7-10 days. Then, the 12z GFS operational/0z GEFS ensemble/0zEPS show a return to cold wx around Feb 5th-ish. So, enjoy the break from tracking. Looks like a normal thaw and then potential after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 The late-week system appears very unlikely to have significant impacts on our wx(winter variety) here in the Valley. That could change, but almost no modelling suggests we are getting winter wx from it. Long term, many of the models are showing a spell of seasonal temps(some days above) for the next 7-10 days. Then, the 12z GFS operational/0z GEFS ensemble/0zEPS show a return to cold wx around Feb 5th-ish. So, enjoy the break from tracking. Looks like a normal thaw and then potential after that. Thanks for the update CG. Hopefully, we'll have some interesting winter weather mid to late February--as we certainly did last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 For Tuesday February 02 - Monday February 08: There is relatively good model agreement indicating the potential for a surface lowto develop over the Southern Plains at the beginning of week-2 and tracknortheastward to the Great Lakes by the middle of week-2. This storm and itstrailing cold front may bring heavy rain to parts of the Ohio, Tennessee, and LowerMississippi Valleys, Southeast, and Southern Appalachians on Wednesday, February3. There may be strong southerly flow ahead of this front, which could supportconditions conducive to severe weather early in week-2, especially over parts of theLower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. This feature will be monitored over theupcoming days. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Weeklies turn cold by the latter part of w2.Look good until going into w4.Doing something right now thought i'd post a little bit since no one has yet.Valentines day though is the coldest i've seen them all year.Showing a chunk of the Valley at 0-5F.Maybe we can get some love with a Valentines storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 If we can get snow cover in advance of that time frame it could be even colder. Of course as we've just seen, arctic air often sets the stage for a nice storm right after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0357 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016 VALID 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... THE ECENS AND NCEP MREF APPEAR IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...EMERGING FROM THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES OVER THE PACIFIC...WILL DIG INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA LATE THIS WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPREAD THEN INCREASES AMONG THE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONCERNING A SUBSEQUENT NORTHEASTWARD TURN THROUGH THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE PROBABLY WILL SUPPORT STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WHICH COULD SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...IT ALSO APPEARS THAT GULF BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION WILL BE SLOW TO ALLOW FOR A SUBSTANTIVE INLAND RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY MATERIALIZE. AT THE PRESENT TIME...THIS SEEMS MORE PROBABLE NEXT TUESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...RATHER THAN MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES...AND OTHER UNCERTAINTIES INHERENT TO FORECASTS AT THE DAY 7-8 TIME FRAME... SEVERE PROBABILITIES STILL REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT. ..KERR.. 01/26/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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