Hoosier Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 The rate of surface low deepening as advertised on the GFS is pretty high end for this region of the country. Not Cleveland Superbomb like (what is) but certainly in line with some of the great fall systems of the past. But much of the bombing occurs as the surface low is about to head out of the US or after it's already gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 The rate of surface low deepening as advertised on the GFS is pretty high end for this region of the country. Not Cleveland Superbomb like (what is) but certainly in line with some of the great fall systems of the past. But much of the bombing occurs as the surface low is about to head out of the US or after it's already gone.Even with rapid exit as system deepens, still an impressive wind signal on the GFS. Snapshots of 925 mb winds from 12z and 15z Friday. Soundings over northern IL at 12z already show mixing to 900 mb while 925 mb winds are ~40-45 kt. And the signal is even more impressive over MI at 15z. Inversion is gone on soundings with mixing to 900 mb which would tap 50+ kt winds. Still 35-40 kt at 925 mb over nrn IL at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Looks like some good wind potential for the eastern Lakes into Canada. EDIT: Wish COD would add the 10m wind to the surface tab. You can see it on some of the other products, but it'd be nice to have it displayed like all the other heights have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Even with rapid exit as system deepens, still an impressive wind signal on the GFS. Snapshots of 925 mb winds from 12z and 15z Friday. Screenshot_2015-11-02-22-52-21.png Screenshot_2015-11-02-22-53-44.png Soundings over northern IL at 12z already show mixing to 900 mb while 925 mb winds are ~40-45 kt. And the signal is even more impressive over MI at 15z. Inversion is gone on soundings with mixing to 900 mb which would tap 50+ kt winds. Still 35-40 kt at 925 mb over nrn IL at that time. If I had my choice, I'd like to slow this down some to have the strongest winds aloft come over more during the daylight hours in case there's a weak inversion near the surface in the early morning. But it's questionable how much of an inversion there will be as the low levels should remain pretty well mixed overnight Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 This will be getting into SPC day 3 outlook range tonight so curious to see what they have to say. Instability still looks pretty bad but some indications that maybe a few hundred J/kg CAPE could be achieved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Line of showers with hurricane force winds? #2015ing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 We'll have to see what the convection models do as we get closer but there are def some signals in the guidance for a forced line of showers/low topped storms. You'd expect it just from pattern recognition as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 The 0z GFS lifts the low north just a little bit too quickly for Ohio/Indiana at least IMO...although it's close. Although frontal timing in the afternoon would be preferred, it's not as necessary in strongly forced and high shear situations when CAPE is usually minimal anyways...just need to get the low to bomb before it's moving into Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 We'll have to see what the convection models do as we get closer but there are def some signals in the guidance for a forced line of showers/low topped storms. You'd expect it just from pattern recognition as well. You're on about Thursday, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 You're on about Thursday, right? It looks more like a Thursday night/Friday morning deal as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 It looks more like a Thursday night/Friday morning deal as of now. Anywhere from Illinois to Indiana? Or, further south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Anywhere from Illinois to Indiana? Or, further south? That really depends on how quickly the surface low bombs and how quickly it tracks northeast. I'd rather be farther east and probably north in this instance, but we still have almost 3 days to slow down the low some or deepen it quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 3, 2015 Author Share Posted November 3, 2015 The winds on the 0Z run were nice, keeps getting stronger every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 The 0z GFS lifts the low north just a little bit too quickly for Ohio/Indiana at least IMO...although it's close. Although frontal timing in the afternoon would be preferred, it's not as necessary in strongly forced and high shear situations when CAPE is usually minimal anyways...just need to get the low to bomb before it's moving into Canada.Agreed, especially not looking great down here in Cincinnati. At 6am we have 60kts at 4,200 ft, but less than 200 CAPE and less than stellar frontal timing as you mentioned. Sent from my XT1060 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 There she is. "...MIDWEST TO MID-SOUTH... A CONTINUATION OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION FROM FARTHER W OR ASEPARATE AREA OF EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD ULTIMATELYACCOMPANY THE ACCELERATING FRONT. WHILE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITYWILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL N OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY WITH MOIST-ADIABATICTHERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...THE INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT OF THESHORTWAVE TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH A 100-KT 500-MB SPEED MAX COULDSUPPORT A FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE WITH AN ACCOMPANYING DAMAGING-WINDRISK. IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO MID-SOUTH...A NOCTURNAL TORNADO RISKMAY ALSO DEVELOP GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MEAGERSURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. WITH SUCHLARGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE REGARDING THE DEGREE OF CYCLOGENESIS...INADDITION TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY...WILL DEFER ON A POSSIBLESLIGHT RISK." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 3, 2015 Author Share Posted November 3, 2015 06Z GFS shows more widespread 60mph wind gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Agreed, especially not looking great down here in Cincinnati. At 6am we have 60kts at 4,200 ft, but less than 200 CAPE and less than stellar frontal timing as you mentioned. Sent from my XT1060 If we can manage 65kt plus at 850mb ahead of the cold front, I'm not as worried about frontal timing. The 6z GFS held steady with the frontal timing but ramped up wind fields some. The NAM does have a few hundred J/KG of CAPE getting into OH FWIW. I'd probably lean on the NAM for instability over the GFS in situations like this. My main concern is getting the low to really strength before the cold front pushes through, or else the wind fields won't suffice for a severe QLCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 The Witch of November usually has me thinking of snow and high winds on the Great Lakes...interesting to be thinking of svr potential for the upcoming week. And having driven through Washington IL recently I am reminded of what November can bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Still plenty of kinks to work out with this one. 12Z GFS came in way north and weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 The srn wave looks more strung out/sheared out compared to the 0z run. Not favorable for a bombing system of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 3, 2015 Author Share Posted November 3, 2015 GFS appears to be the outlier this run. Disheartening it can't agree about something 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Yeah, not a fan of the slower to bomb scenario. But as far as severe prospects, it seems like the last couple runs of the NAM are a tad better with instability farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Given the dynamics, would this be enough for more than isolated severe reports? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Given the dynamics, would this be enough for more than isolated severe reports? USA_CAPE_sfc_069.gif namCGP_con_mucape_069.gif Yes and this is probably closer to reality than what the GFS is popping off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 12z ECMWF does still bomb it out quicker than the other 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Here's a list of highest November PWATS for various locations, and 12z GFS/NAM progged max PWAT values (at either 00z Fri or 12z Fri, depending on location). The ILN record appears to be in most danger of falling. May bump this in a couple days to see where things stand. APX: record: 1.20", 11/1/2013 GFS: 1.31" NAM: 1.27" DVN: record: 1.39", 11/18/2004 GFS: 1.26" NAM: 1.40" ILX: record: 1.53", 11/2/1972 GFS: 1.47" NAM: 1.50" DTX: record: 1.52", 11/6/1977 GFS: 1.52" NAM: 1.54" ILN: record: 1.58", 11/9/2000 and 11/2/1972 GFS: 1.82" NAM: 1.70" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 At least it's an interesting system to try and forecast if not frustrating. We have terrible lapse rates keeping instability down, but strong dynamics including 30+ kts of 1km shear. It looks like there could be strong synoptic scale lift owing to the vorticity max sweeping through, but also mesoscale lifting mechanisms owing to some mid level frontrogenesis to drive us all insane as well. At least we'll all have the opportunity to hone our skills! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 3, 2015 Author Share Posted November 3, 2015 TWCs cruddy app doesn't even show rain Friday, I'll post the CIPS analog in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 3, 2015 Author Share Posted November 3, 2015 CIPS analog shows a small outbreak http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/COLD/2015110312/F060/MV_060/SVRnam212F060.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 TWCs cruddy app doesn't even show rain Friday, I'll post the CIPS analog in a bit. I've gotcha covered. **Bottom one is Thursday and the top is Friday. Don't know why they're flipped.** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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