nrgjeff Posted March 10, 2016 Share Posted March 10, 2016 Hard to believe it was snowing a week ago. That system did bust somewhat on the dry slot. Perhaps it could have recovered without the heavy precip or convection south, but a weak wave to the north contributed to the dry slot. While the southern system transitioned east, another weaker short-wave passed north. Sometimes those can be overcome, but too much went wrong. Still areas above 4,000 FT picked up a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 4 feet of snow for the Cali mountains will correlate to 1-4" in the NC mountains by the end of the month when the short duration cold hits. The cold will sting after the current heat wave. Feel free to ask me for the math behind this, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 Hard to believe it was snowing a week ago. That system did bust somewhat on the dry slot. Perhaps it could have recovered without the heavy precip or convection south, but a weak wave to the north contributed to the dry slot. While the southern system transitioned east, another weaker short-wave passed north. Sometimes those can be overcome, but too much went wrong. Still areas above 4,000 FT picked up a couple inches.Yeah, that wave to the north did us in as it held together pretty good and produced over 4" in Northeast Kentucky. Seems like northern stream systems really hurt the entire area, moreso Knoxville South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 Couldn't be a more beautiful day here in the mountain's, just left Bonnie an Clyde's. KC your grandparents knew how to make a killer burger!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 I take it that snow chances are pretty much over for the year ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 A rare sounding spit out by the 4km NAM suggests decent tornadic parameters will be in place tomorrow afternoon across WNC. With 1km SRH pushing 300 m2/s2 and 3km SRH above 500 m2/s2, a spin up could occur. An STP of 1.9 is not eye popping, but a value over 1 is considered noteworthy with tornado being possible. I could also see some sizable hail with these cells that develop. Tomorrow could be an interesting day for severe weather here in WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Certainly in the soup today with the moisture banking up against the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 14, 2016 Author Share Posted March 14, 2016 I take it that snow chances are pretty much over for the year ?No Joe not likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 I take it that snow chances are pretty much over for the year ?GFS offers a sliver of hope Also CFSV2 for whatever it is worth: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 14, 2016 Author Share Posted March 14, 2016 Watch around the 20th for some possible snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 I take it that snow chances are pretty much over for the year ? New to the area? I don't remember a March without snow in the mountains. GFS has been consistent with some snow for awhile now starting next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 15, 2016 Author Share Posted March 15, 2016 New to the area? I don't remember a March without snow in the mountains. GFS has been consistent with some snow for awhile now starting next week.Oh no Joe been around. It's just we have not talked much about snow opportunities since it's been 70 degrees. I agree very rare for no snow in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 15, 2016 Author Share Posted March 15, 2016 Sunday is looking more and more likely we may some significant snow for this time of the year. It looks like we may see two impulses come in. One Saturday morning then Saturday afternoon and overnight. Looks pretty good currently with temps hanging in the 30s for the most part in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Sunday is looking more and more likely we may some significant snow for this time of the year. It looks like we may see two impulses come in. One Saturday morning then Saturday afternoon and overnight. Looks pretty good currently with temps hanging in the 30s for the most part in the mountains. Interesting setup for sure. CMC drops 5" at KAVL. I like the phased solution compared to the one two punch for valley accumulation. Would be colder though with two waves imo. After that last event, I have a hard time seeing this thread the needle, but it certainly is not impossible and could very well trend in our favor over the next 5 days. March Madness and snow, wow that would be an awesome combo. I think the high mountains are in a great spot and should at least get a couple of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 15, 2016 Author Share Posted March 15, 2016 Interesting setup for sure. CMC drops 5" at KAVL. I like the phased solution compared to the one two punch for valley accumulation. Would be colder though with two waves imo. After that last event, I have a hard time seeing this thread the needle, but it certainly is not impossible and could very well trend in our favor over the next 5 days. March Madness and snow, wow that would be an awesome combo. I think the high mountains are in a great spot and should at least get a couple of inches.Yeah I agree. Usually when we get systems this late they are a very heavy wet snow. Should be fun to track as long as it doesn't trend bad for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 17, 2016 Author Share Posted March 17, 2016 I still like our snow chances Sunday into Sunday night. Things still look promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 I still like our snow chances Sunday into Sunday night. Things still look promising. Looks like this will be a Mt. LeConte special...they should get pounded with 6 to 12" of snow especially if some of the higher QPF totals from the NAM 4 materializes. I'm sure Newfound Gap will be beautiful tomorrow morning after(or if) they open the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 GSP this morning... LAPSE RATES UNDER THE PASSING TROUGH ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT AN INTERESTING POSSIBILITY FOR SNOW...HAIL...OR GRAUPEL TO POSSIBLY REACH THE GROUND OUT OVER THE PIEDMONT DURING THE MOST INTENSE RATES. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED...BUT COULD CREATE BRIEF EXCITEMENT. PROFILES WILL SUPPORT PRIMARILY SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE PERIOD OF BETTER FORCING. WARMER VALLEYS WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS...BUT LOCATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO...WITH POSSIBLY 3 TO 4 INCHES ON TOP OF THE SMOKIES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. WITH ADVISORY ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY FROM 4000 TO 6000 FEET...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR SNOW AT THIS POINT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 20, 2016 Author Share Posted March 20, 2016 Looks like this will be a Mt. LeConte special...they should get pounded with 6 to 12" of snow especially if some of the higher QPF totals from the NAM 4 materializes. I'm sure Newfound Gap will be beautiful tomorrow morning after(or if) they open the road. Yeah things look like a go. A can confirm it is snowing up on Balsam currently. Temps in the 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 20, 2016 Author Share Posted March 20, 2016 Snowing at the house but raining at the hospital. House in near Crabtree and Fines Creek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Spurts of rain and sleet here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Flurries/light snow here as well. It's still not below freezing though. It's 34.2 with a light breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 20, 2016 Author Share Posted March 20, 2016 Flurries/light snow here as well. It's still not below freezing though. It's 34.2 with a light breeze.Yeah 34 here to but the upper levels support snow. We actually already changed to snow here at the hospital which is about 2500 feet I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Winter weather advisory tonite 1-3 inches. Good way to welcome in spring. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 20, 2016 Author Share Posted March 20, 2016 Winter weather advisory tonite 1-3 inches. Good way to welcome in spring. LolI just saw that! Nice! An excellent way to welcome spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Flurries have begun here in Boone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 20, 2016 Author Share Posted March 20, 2016 Snowing moderately now in Haywood. Laying on elevated surfaces above 3000 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 We have a dust up in Avery around 28 degrees with 23 degrees up top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Moderate snow ground gettin white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 I've got a good sloppy inch here, Very pretty snow fall though. Temps are falling slowly, only down to 29.1. I'm done. A very mediocre winter but it's time to put it in the books, Bring on spring and let's try again next year. Thanks again for all your expertise and enthusiasm. It's always fun with you guys ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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