dan123 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 the good news is the ggem, ukie (extrapolated), and the gfs have all gone to the app runner track at 12z. The other good news is the gfs never brought precip far enough west on it's runs leading up to the last storm to give central Ohio anything. So the fact that it now has a large part of Ohio getting a nice hit at this range, might be a good thing. I'll still remain cautiously pessimistic until at least the weekend How were the 00z euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 How were the 00z euro ensembles? I'd say pretty close to how the 12z op turned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I'd say pretty close to how the 12z op turned out. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Not good. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 lol yea it kinda doesn't mean anything considering he's comparing the 00z eps to the 12z OP. The 12z eps will be more telling as to whether the OP has support. * btw, you guys will have to get your eps fix from someone else....I'll be on the road shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I don't mean to sound pessimistic, no doubt the chances are there. The euro is much less sharp with the trough vs. the 00z, which is why it strings out the energy until it gets to the MA coast. Would like to see a stronger high to the north to feed in colder air too. Those are things that can definitely trend differently in future runs. Who could blame you, right, especially this winter? You brought me back to planet earth. I have no idea why I would ever think this one would line in our favor. I hate this hobby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I can't believe you guys want to give this winter another benefit of the doubt after this most recent disaster. I will say with a 99.99% certainty that, even if there another event, it will be rain, a miss or 1-2" at most. Take it to the bank. It's not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I can't believe you guys want to give this winter another benefit of the doubt after this most recent disaster. I will say with a 99.99% certainty that, even if there another event, it will be rain, a miss or 1-2" at most. Take it to the bank. It's not going to happen.I couldn't agree more! See my last post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I'd say a few more 12z EPS members are favorable for OH than 0z, but there's still a ton of spread. There looks to be some confluence over New England ahead of this storm so we should have some sort of high to our north, although maybe not the strongest ever. That's already better than last storm. Trick will be getting an early enough phase to turn the trough negatively tilted before getting to the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I can't believe you guys want to give this winter another benefit of the doubt after this most recent disaster. I will say with a 99.99% certainty that, even if there another event, it will be rain, a miss or 1-2" at most. Take it to the bank. It's not going to happen. good ole fashioned weenie reverse psychology . Well done sir....well done indeed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 This feels like deja vu. At least it's something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 This feels like deja vu. At least it's something to track. I feel like the potential ceiling and overall likelihood of producing are a bit better, but it's still not ideal by any means. That's this winter for you I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 17, 2016 Author Share Posted February 17, 2016 What are the days we are talking about...I am heading to Maryland Feb.27th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 What are the days we are talking about...I am heading to Maryland Feb.27th A week from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 18z DGEX FTW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 00Z euro delivers the goods for OH. Too bad it's a week out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 00Z euro delivers the goods for OH. Too bad it's a week out! 0z Ukie at the end of the run has the look of a big storm in the making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 0z Ukie at the end of the run has the look of a big storm in the making. team euro/ukie vs. team gfs/ggem. The latter has no semblance of a system coming out of the sw. Gfs took until about 120 hours out before it found the storm with the last one too. Also, it's interesting that the euro came back nw again at 00z..... wonder if it goes southeast again at 12z. All you can take away from this is that there's still a possible 'threat' for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 team euro/ukie vs. team gfs/ggem. The latter has no semblance of a system coming out of the sw. Gfs took until about 120 hours out before it found the storm with the last one too. Also, it's interesting that the euro came back nw again at 00z..... wonder if it goes southeast again at 12z. All you can take away from this is that there's still a possible 'threat' for something. Pondo rule in effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 GFS is a less impressive version of the 0z run, strung out and looks like a mess. CMC is a coast hugger, gives the Apps all the snow. UKMET has a 992mb in Middle Tennessee. Definitely like what I'm seeing with Ukie. As buckeye said, it's looking like another UK/Euro vs. GFS/CMC battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 GFS is a train wreck lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 GFS is a less impressive version of the 0z run, strung out and looks like a mess. CMC is a coast hugger, gives the Apps all the snow. UKMET has a 992mb in Middle Tennessee. Definitely like what I'm seeing with Ukie. As buckeye said, it's looking like another UK/Euro vs. GFS/CMC battle. Pondo rule in effect...the 12Z Euro will be south & east of the 0z, GUARANTEED!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Pondo rule in effect...the 12Z Euro will be south & east of the 0z, GUARANTEED!!!!!!! meanwhile back at the ukie. Models all over the place. I'm thinking one of two camps. It either stays an unorganized cluster which slides it southeast and warm, or it turns into something much bigger...one where we might be sweating precip issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 bombs away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 bombs away we're due for a conus triple phaser. I'd like a track somewhere between March'93 and January'78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 meanwhile back at the ukie. Models all over the place. I'm thinking one of two camps. It either stays an unorganized cluster which slides it southeast and warm, or it turns into something much bigger...one where we might be sweating precip issues. Yeah, that's too much of a good thing. Could even see temp issues up here beyond 144. If the 12z EURO is still with the UKIE on the amped side of things, one of you guys should start a thread for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Yeah, that's too much of a good thing. Could even see temp issues up here beyond 144. If the 12z EURO is still with the UKIE on the amped side of things, one of you guys should start a thread for this. pondo, pick up the white courtesy phone. But yes, we need more of the northern branch to phase into that trough or it's major temp issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 pondo, pick up the white courtesy phone. But yes, we need more of the northern branch to phase into that trough or it's major temp issues. I'm on it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 lol...euro does the southeast/weak/warm 12z shift. Dealing with 2 pieces coming out. The difference between the 00z and the 12z is on the 00z the first one is weak and the second one blows up, On the 12z they are closer together and the second one can't strengthen. Like I said, if this two piece deal sticks, it becomes nothing more than a cluster with some snow in the mountains. We need either one consolidated piece or for the first piece to slip out and allow the second to amp. *although the ukie would be too much of good thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 euro really not that far from being something bigger. When I saw this, I was surprised the resulting storm was so progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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