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Let's Talk Winter


Steve

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I refuse to accept another one of these :fulltilt: .  Let's get working on this people.

Wasn't this the Ghanal Apps Runner as of yesterday?

 

And, if it showed us getting nailed this far out you know it would NEVER happen! But, the way things have been going this year, you can lock that in for the east coast peeps. Wake me up in May my friend, in May...........

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Wasn't this the Ghanal Apps Runner as of yesterday?

 

And, if it showed us getting nailed this far out you know it would NEVER happen! But, the way things have been going this year, you can lock that in for the east coast peeps. Wake me up in May my friend, in May...........

 

I'll do the glass is half full thing:You don't want to be in the bullseye a week out, and currently we are not. :whistle:

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Well not if you live here you don't. But the east coast was in the bulls eye a week out for the blizzard in January and they got nailed.

 

on Feb 11th the euro suddenly shifted 300 miles nw on yesterday's storm, putting us in the snow.  That was only about 5 days out.   Also the 12z eps is much further nw than the OP.  Kind of has that look of a low to the ohio valley and a coastal transfer.   In fact the mean snowfall for that timeframe puts the heaviest swath of snow through IN and nw half of OH, so we would actually be screwed the other way.

 

so yea, way to early to be concerned about a miss east.  Also JB believes it 'cuts', which doesn't mean the same as 'cut' to you and me, it means it will be inland.  JB almost never throws out an opportunity to hype a coastal.

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on Feb 11th the euro suddenly shifted 300 miles nw on yesterday's storm, putting us in the snow. That was only about 5 days out. Also the 12z eps is much further nw than the OP. Kind of has that look of a low to the ohio valley and a coastal transfer. In fact the mean snowfall for that timeframe puts the heaviest swath of snow through IN and nw half of OH, so we would actually be screwed the other way.

so yea, way to early to be concerned about a miss east. Also JB believes it 'cuts', which doesn't mean the same as 'cut' to you and me, it means it will be inland. JB almost never throws out an opportunity to hype a coastal.

In Buck I trust!
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Depends on what part of town apparently, a few on my site from Newark said they got 5. One measured and said 5.5. I got 6 in Knox county. Coshocton county had around 4"

 

I measured 4.5" on my Jeep's hood. A ground measurement might have yielded a higher total.

 

5" for Newark seems like a nice average.

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00Z euro is a nice hit for the eastern half of OH next week.

 

strong signal for eastern storm.... right now more east is favored but if we can get a 'clean' trough and strong ridge out west hopefully we can pull off a powerful system that can come further west.    If we get the usual 'noise' we've been having with these systems, ie slp all over the place screwing up heights etc, than it'll be another cluster storm or miss east.

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strong signal for eastern storm.... right now more east is favored but if we can get a 'clean' trough and strong ridge out west hopefully we can pull off a powerful system that can come further west.    If we get the usual 'noise' we've been having with these systems, ie slp all over the place screwing up heights etc, than it'll be another cluster storm or miss east.

 

I'm on board the pain train :popcorn:

 

 

f174.gif

 

or was it the buckeye bus? lol

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meh, not stoked yet.   This is looking a lot like the storm we just had with the same potential issues, (temp and too far east).   We'll see what happens in a couple days with the models.

 

funny that the euro looks like it's doing it's infamous back and forth between 12z and 0z, southeast and northwest.

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meh, not stoked yet.   This is looking a lot like the storm we just had with the same potential issues, (temp and too far east).   We'll see what happens in a couple days with the models.

 

funny that the euro looks like it's doing it's infamous back and forth between 12z and 0z, southeast and northwest.

I guess I got excited b/c there didn't seem to be a kicker this time and there was a High to the north and not another Low. Better chance for a phase I figured. 

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I guess I got excited b/c there didn't seem to be a kicker this time and there was a High to the north and not another Low. Better chance for a phase I figured. 

 

I don't mean to sound pessimistic, no doubt the chances are there.   The euro is much less sharp with the trough vs. the 00z, which is why it strings out the energy until it gets to the MA coast.   Would like to see a stronger high to the north to feed in colder air too.   Those are things that can definitely trend differently in future runs.   

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the good news is

 

the ggem, ukie (extrapolated), and the gfs have all gone to the app runner track at 12z.   The other good news is the gfs never brought precip far enough west on it's runs leading up to the last storm to give central Ohio anything.   So the fact that it now has a large part of Ohio getting a nice hit at this range, might be a good thing.

 

I'll still remain cautiously pessimistic until at least the weekend  :rambo:

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