powderfreak Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Yeah it could be one hell of a soaker18z GFS with widespread 5< inches of rain in the next 10 days for all of SNE.Hope everyone is prepared for the drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Yeah it could be one hell of a soaker October 2005 type stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 The folks in New England could get a surprise tropical storm from what's currently TD11 along with the heavy rains could be some gales but am currently not going the damaging winds route as of yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 00z UKIE 12 hr QPF map from hrs 60-72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 In addition, TD11 makes landfall afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Heh....6z GFS is a little wet for CNE/NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Lot of uncertainty still. Almost a two part system. One area of heavy rain with the front slowly moving east, than another with the coastal low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 How big is the threat of damaging winds for all areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 How big is the threat of damaging winds for all areas? I don't see a big threat inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Someone is getting inches of rain. Tough to say where and it depends on the interaction with the front and what happens with any coastal low, but I think at the least we have a widespread soaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Heh....6z GFS is a little wet for CNE/NNE. 10"+ for SVT through 180 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Covered bridges FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Why wouldn't there be a wind threat? Big time pressure gradient..TD or TS intensifying and slamming in Jersey... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Covered bridges FTL. Nah we are in a drought and it won't rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Why wouldn't there be a wind threat? Big time pressure gradient..TD or TS intensifying and slamming in Jersey... Huh? You mean the 1000mb low that's "slamming" into the region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 The Sultan signal is on the verge of being sounded by the WPC. You can envision Steve running down rt 91 in SW RI, in Paul Revere fashion yelling, "The heavy rains are coming.." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 28, 2015 Author Share Posted September 28, 2015 The Sultan signal is on the verge of being sounded by the WPC. You can envision Steve running down rt 91 in SW RI, in Paul Revere fashion yelling, "The heavy rains are coming.."you went from it ain't happening James to this, welcome aboard Johnny come lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 you went from it ain't happening James to this, welcome aboard Johnny come lately. I never said that. I haven't talked much about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Yeah, and who's to say it continues? Dumb, voodoo science. Bump for Eric Fisher and Kevin who need to take off the voodoo necklace of garlic cloves, aluminum hat, and stop with the nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Bump for big winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Justed looked at the sref plumes some show as little as an inch and one outlier shows 17 inches that would be epic but wont happen lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 28, 2015 Author Share Posted September 28, 2015 Bump for big winds No indications that I see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 The best winds seem with pressure gradient right now. You would need a wrapped up low to move west into NJ to bring Kevin's blowdown and I do not see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Bump for big winds Where are you seeing big winds? Just look at a pressure chart for starters, there's not a lot of gradient in our neck of the woods. It's more of a humid rain while your leaves sway in 10-18kt breezes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Where are you seeing big winds? Just look at a pressure chart for starters, there's not a lot of gradient in our neck of the woods. It's more of a humid rain while your leaves sway in 10-18kt breezes. Talking about the weekend storm..That TD could potentially strengthen rapidly over that bath water..and interact with trough Not talking bout mid week fropa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Talking about the weekend storm..That TD could potentially strengthen rapidly over that bath water..and interact with trough Not talking bout mid week fropaYeah I was talking about the weekend. But you seem to be speaking more hypothetical "could potentially...". If that's the case then yes there probably could be *more* wind than currently shown if that thing gets its act together. I haven't seen the EURO, but the other models aren't exactly impressive with a 1002mb TD moving nearby. It doesn't even have more than one or two closed isobars around it on the GFS. If it strengthened considerably on the models and the trough was timed just right, then maybe something resembling gusty winds could occur. I just don't see how this would result in damaging winds in any scenario. Rainfall and flooding will be the main headline with this. Even though it's been dry, a quick 3" in 12 hours can cause the usual urban and small stream issues. That and the public now thinks they live in Arizona where it doesn't rain, so a few big rain events in 7-10 days will get folks thinking they are back in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 1h 1 hour ago The incorporation of a tropical entity just turned up the impact potential this week on East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 28, 2015 Author Share Posted September 28, 2015 Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 1h 1 hour ago The incorporation of a tropical entity just turned up the impact potential this week on East Coast. Have you seen what the week long NE winds did to the beaches in NJ? wow, it would be very very ugly if for some reason this blew up to more than what is progged. full moon goon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 I'm glad the brunt of this will occur in September so we can tip the month into above normal on precip. Maybe someone in VT can finish this September drought with double digits of rain for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 "When in drought, it's best to stick with it." That is one of many quotes that will hang on the meteorological wall of shame. This will be along with quotes such as "ground is too warm for snow.." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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