Rjay Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 NAM post 48 hours here. HWRF here. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 The 12z HWRF takes TD #11 down to 934mb East of Charleston in 96hrs. Yeah, that's probably not going to happen. I don't know what the problem is with that model lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 The NHC forecast has a weak TS at best. The official forecast calls for a decrease of shear in about 24-36 hours. And the system is expected to merge with a frontal boundary which as we all know can induce strengthening if the LLJ is positioned favorably.Even if it survives the shear and if/when it merges with a frontal boundary, it's not going to be a purly tropical system.That's all I'm say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Even if it survives the shear and if/when it merges with a frontal boundary, it's not going to be a purly tropical system. That's all I'm say. Right, I made several posts earlier explaining potential impacts should the system make landfall near the area, most likely as an extra tropical entity. Extra tropical systems can be far more powerful and impactfull than fully tropical systems at our lattitude for the obvious reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 If only the chances of this happening were above 0.00001%..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 HRWF SMASHES DELAWARE COAST ON FRI-SAT @952MB. MAKES LEFT HAND TURN LIKE SANDY. NYC BIGHT WILL BITE THE DUST AGAIN. WATERFRONT PROPERTY WILL GO ON SALE FOR FREE WITH A SIGNING BONUS TO BOOT. Pls don't go into DT mode. Isentrophic, the chances are much higher than you realize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Pls don't go into DT mode. Isentrophic, the chances are much higher than you realize. Yeah okay.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Yeah okay.... So it is 937mb not the 952mb I mentioned. WOW! I could not read all those concentric rings and get to the core! For reference what was SLP at landfall for Sandy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 So it is 937mb not the 952mb I mentioned. WOW! I could not read all those concentric rings and get to the core! For reference what was SLP at landfall for Sandy? Around 940mb, except this is fully tropical, or at least much more than Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 It's in a league of its own? Verbatim it's in the league of 1938. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 28, 2015 Author Share Posted September 28, 2015 That is nothing like Irene, like saying the sky is red. Well the moon was red yesterday. So anything can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Well if this happens, inland areas will not be able to come to the rescue of the coastal regions due to 10" of rain flooding their basements miles from the ocean or rivers. Also hurricane force winds could be in effect around here for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Verbatim it's in the league of 1938.Yikes. Well I'm this has no chance of being that extreme. It's nice to look at though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Around 940mb, except this is fully tropical, or at least much more than Sandy. Thanks for info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Things just got a lot more interesting, maybe those other models aren't so crazy after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 ...school must have let out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 ...school must have let out. It's legit, eat crow I tried to care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 ...school must have let out. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 28, 2015 Author Share Posted September 28, 2015 Rjay can you pin the October thread and the storm thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Also pinning this thread lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 28, 2015 Author Share Posted September 28, 2015 Also pinning this thread lol Lol thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Looking at thr 18z gfs...it's quite wet lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Lol 18z gfs has the metro area with over a foot of rain lol You ninja'd me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 28, 2015 Author Share Posted September 28, 2015 Looking at thr 18z gfs...it's quite wet lol Yeah over a foot lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 I never expected to die in a flood or surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 I never expected to die in a flood or surge. You won't. Unless you're a big dummy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 You ninja'd me Let's build a ark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Let's build a ark Saturated grounds + winds, even if it's only say 45 mph will knock trees down. Plus the onshore flow for days will pile up the water and if a tropical system or hybrid comes anywhere near us, coastal flooding becomes a big issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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