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Tropical Storm Danny

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Very impressive looking cane despite small stature.  Will see how much he atrophies hitting the dry air / shear coming up.  Bigger issue imho is whether he can steer clear to north of the PR and DR.  Could be interesting to see what he can become if he can hold on for that bath water approaching the Turks and Caicos.  

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000

URNT12 KWBC 211655

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042015

A. 21/16:20:00Z

B. 14 deg 08 min N

048 deg 19 min W

H. EXTRAP 965 mb

I. 6 C / 3690 m

J. 21 C / 3321 m

K. 2 C / NA

L. OPEN S

M. C12

N. 12345 / NA

O. 1 / 4 nm

P. NOAA3 WA04A DANNY OB 06

SLP EXTRAP FROM 12000 FT

MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND AND MAX FL WIND 111 KT 026 / 04 NM 16:20:40Z

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Very impressive looking cane despite small stature.  Will see how much he atrophies hitting the dry air / shear coming up.  Bigger issue imho is whether he can steer clear to north of the PR and DR.  Could be interesting to see what he can become if he can hold on for that bath water approaching the Turks and Caicos.  

 

Some of the intensity guidence (for what it's worth, which is always not much) now trends back up  after 84 hours.

 

 

aal04_2015082112_intensity_early.png

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Some of the intensity guidence (for what it's worth, which is always not much) now trends back up  after 84 hours.

 

 

aal04_2015082112_intensity_early.png

Thanks,  yeah had just noticed the same over on spaghettimodels

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000

URNT12 KWBC 211719

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042015

A. 21/17:05:46Z

B. 14 deg 12 min N

048 deg 28 min W

C. NA

D. 104 kt

E. 019 deg 3 nm

F. 107 deg 107 kt

G. 016 deg 5 nm

H. 974 mb

I. 7 C / 3655 m

J. 25 C / 3010 m

K. 5 C / NA

L. OPEN S

M. C18

N. 12345 / NA

O. 1 / 1 nm

P. NOAA3 WA04A DANNY OB 07

MAX FL WIND 111 KT 026 / 04 NM 16:20:40Z

CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 075 / 04 KT

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It seems as if Danny is pushing the dry air away.

11AM discussion 

 

It is notable that experimental multispectral METEOSAT imagery suggests

that low-level moisture has wrapped around the cyclone and pushed

the drier air farther away. This could be helping both the

intensification and the increase in outer banding.

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11AM discussion 

 

It is notable that experimental multispectral METEOSAT imagery suggests

that low-level moisture has wrapped around the cyclone and pushed

the drier air farther away. This could be helping both the

intensification and the increase in outer banding.

Impressive. You can also see Danny moving NW.

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danny seems like he picked the ideal time to strengthen.  he has really expanded since yesterday and hopefully it is enough to protect the coc over the next 36hrs or so.  if it can hold on the waters north of the islands are ideal for intensification.

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Danny is a major, congrats!

 

Hurricane DANNY Update Statement Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive   UPDATE  
000WTNT64 KNHC 211747TCUAT4HURRICANE DANNY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATENWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015200 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2015...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT DANNY IS A MAJORHURRICANE...Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Dannyis now a Category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane WindScale.  The maximum winds are estimated to be 115 mph (185 km/h)with higher gusts.No additional intensification is expected, as Danny is moving intoan area of unfavorable upper-level winds, and a weakening trend isexpected to begin later today.  Consequently, no adjustment to theforecast intensities from the previous advisory is required.SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...14.3N 48.6WABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDSMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES$$Forecaster Beven/Roberts

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Pinhole eye?

 

 

 

Cold be some kind of ERC as well, he had a pretty stable eye for a while but I am not really that familiar with how ERC work or if they even occur in a system like Danny, versus a bigger stronger storm......it could also be clouds overtopping it hard to say.

 

Gonzo is up now too and hopefully the data they get can give us a better idea with regards to the dry air and shear Danny will be dealing with, it should be in the 18Z runs....

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Danny likely peaked at ~105-110 kt at about 15Z, since the recon data came as Danny's satellite presentation deteriorated. Convection has warmed, the southern eyewall has opened up, the eye has become clouded, and the western side of the CDO has become eroded, while flight-level winds suggest that Danny is tilted from SW to NE. These trends are clear indications that strong westerly shear is finally affecting Danny, causing the system to become elongated. For once, I agree with the (12Z) HWRF, which quickly brings Danny down almost as rapidly as it spun up, showing a strong tropical storm in 36 hours and a depression reaching the Leewards later. Small systems like Danny often deepen and then peter out more rapidly than the NHC anticipates. I expect that there won't be much left of Danny in two days. Even though Danny intensified more than I, the NHC, or any of the dynamical models expected, it won't make much difference, given the very hostile conditions and drier air ahead of such a tiny cyclone. The GFDL's re-strengthening of a weak system near Puerto Rico makes no sense, given the collapse of Danny's inner core and the very dry air surrounding the cyclone, even assuming, as the Devil's advocate, that shear eventually relaxes.

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The GFDL and HWRF both are poor at best when forecasting upper-level conditions, even in the short to medium range. Anyway, even if Danny were an organized storm in the Bahamas, the persistent westerly mid-level flow around 30°N east of Florida would ensure that it would curve away from the East Coast. I'm quite convinced that Danny will open up into a wave or weaken to a depression before reaching the islands and moving west with the low-level flow into Hispaniola, consistent with the ECMWF and its ensembles' forecasts over the past several days. Still, Danny has put on quite a show and shown the limitations of satellite estimates when dealing with compact but intense, deepening systems.

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The globals show slightly better conditions around the Turks & Caicos area in around 5 days or so. If Danny can stay a coherent entity and avoid major land interaction, there's the chance it can restrengthen some. But that's way out there, and full of a lot of 'IF' scenarios.

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