Voyager Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Two confirmed tornadoes yesterday for in the State College CWA. One near Montoursville and one near Selinsgrove. https://www.facebook.com/NWSStateCollege Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 Yeah. I noticed that from radar trends as well. Idk why, but northern Harford county has been getting shelled this summer. Areas like Norrisville and Bel Air have been seeing impressive totals for precip. And I'm actually not in Millersville or Carney anymore. I moved to Hagerstown last week because of my new job. You'll still get Carney totals from me during winter season, but you'll see Hagerstown totals now too!! I still like posting here since everyone here is extremely friendly and very informative for all events. I love this subforum. And it makes for a great escape from the MA forum when you're getting shelled and DC is seeing white rain haha Nice!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 Nice find, Voyager. I don't think the Montoursville one even had a SVR warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 A school got destroyed on one of those tornadoes, took a direct hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Looking ahead a bit. With what experts are saying will be a very strong El Nino this winter, what does that mean for our winters typically? We're already seeing the effects of the El-Nino in the tropics, where the SST anomalies are below average in the tropical Atlantic where we should be starting to see increasing convection as the Cape Verde hurricane season typically starts kicking into gear in August. In terms of winter certainly more than a weak El-Nino should generally imply that our region might have a wetter winter than the previous two.. as those last two were fairly dry, specifically last winter which helped have us in the hole enough for drought watches in some central counties before the June deluge set in. Additionally, that should eventually help the drought stricken west coast as the winter wet season sets in. A more influential El-Nino should bode well for an active southern jet and more precipitation chances, with of course the question being how much of those precipitation chances get cashed into snow events. Current ENSO forecasts have quite a sizeable El-Nino event persisting into the winter (flirting with and/or exceeding "Strong" status of > 1.5C)..quite possibly making for an event that competes with the 97-98 super nino. For a refresher the 97-98 winter was a very active one storm wise and often had quite favorable snowstorm tracks, but was very devoid of cold air. That led to interior sites like State College and Williamsport seeing an average winter snow wise while LSV sites saw a pretty lousy winter (Harrisburg had ~12" for that winter). Not saying we're going to see a repeat of course. A large portion of the Pacific up the west coast into the Gulf of Alaska persists with also having above average SST's (which has aided in the major Pac ridging we have had the last couple winters). So it remains to be seen how that whole Pacific pattern interacts with itself as we get into the fall and so forth. And of course the ENSO forecasts are just that.. forecasts. Reality could have an early peak and fade of the Nino in time for the winter months. Either way we're likely looking at a moderate nino winter at least, and I would wager we could see a milder winter (at least IN COMPARISON to the last couple).. which isn't necessarily a bad thing. If I were an I-95er.. I would hope the "strong" nino event doesn't come to fruition.. as the correlation between that and below average snowfall is quite a solid one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Pulled up the radar data from Friday and was going over it this morning since I never really had a good look at it while the storms were going through Friday. Given the D1 SPC tornado probs that were out for Friday (5% over most of the eastern half of PA and 2% elsewhere), I was kinda surprised they went for a straight up tornado watch despite some favorable parameters. However it probably ended up being a good thing as CTP's area ended up with 2 confirmed despite what otherwise was a run of the mill PA severe day at best and both came out of non warned cells. I know that if I were in the NWS's position I likely wouldn't have tor warned the responsible cells either as the velocity scans didn't really show very much. One of those situations where real time spotter reports would be very valuable for issuing warnings. 2039z (440pm) 2044z 2055z 2100z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Drove by damage it was pretty bad, and certainly could have been bad if anyone was outside. Tons of trees down and outbuildings destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 We're already seeing the effects of the El-Nino in the tropics, where the SST anomalies are below average in the tropical Atlantic where we should be starting to see increasing convection as the Cape Verde hurricane season typically starts kicking into gear in August. In terms of winter certainly more than a weak El-Nino should generally imply that our region might have a wetter winter than the previous two.. as those last two were fairly dry, specifically last winter which helped have us in the hole enough for drought watches in some central counties before the June deluge set in. Additionally, that should eventually help the drought stricken west coast as the winter wet season sets in. A more influential El-Nino should bode well for an active southern jet and more precipitation chances, with of course the question being how much of those precipitation chances get cashed into snow events. Current ENSO forecasts have quite a sizeable El-Nino event persisting into the winter (flirting with and/or exceeding "Strong" status of > 1.5C)..quite possibly making for an event that competes with the 97-98 super nino. For a refresher the 97-98 winter was a very active one storm wise and often had quite favorable snowstorm tracks, but was very devoid of cold air. That led to interior sites like State College and Williamsport seeing an average winter snow wise while LSV sites saw a pretty lousy winter (Harrisburg had ~12" for that winter). Not saying we're going to see a repeat of course. A large portion of the Pacific up the west coast into the Gulf of Alaska persists with also having above average SST's (which has aided in the major Pac ridging we have had the last couple winters). So it remains to be seen how that whole Pacific pattern interacts with itself as we get into the fall and so forth. And of course the ENSO forecasts are just that.. forecasts. Reality could have an early peak and fade of the Nino in time for the winter months. Either way we're likely looking at a moderate nino winter at least, and I would wager we could see a milder winter (at least IN COMPARISON to the last couple).. which isn't necessarily a bad thing. If I were an I-95er.. I would hope the "strong" nino event doesn't come to fruition.. as the correlation between that and below average snowfall is quite a solid one. Many thanks for this post. Your knowledge is much appreciated and a real asset. Hope all is going well this boring summer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 We're already seeing the effects of the El-Nino in the tropics, where the SST anomalies are below average in the tropical Atlantic where we should be starting to see increasing convection as the Cape Verde hurricane season typically starts kicking into gear in August. In terms of winter certainly more than a weak El-Nino should generally imply that our region might have a wetter winter than the previous two.. as those last two were fairly dry, specifically last winter which helped have us in the hole enough for drought watches in some central counties before the June deluge set in. Additionally, that should eventually help the drought stricken west coast as the winter wet season sets in. A more influential El-Nino should bode well for an active southern jet and more precipitation chances, with of course the question being how much of those precipitation chances get cashed into snow events. Current ENSO forecasts have quite a sizeable El-Nino event persisting into the winter (flirting with and/or exceeding "Strong" status of > 1.5C)..quite possibly making for an event that competes with the 97-98 super nino. For a refresher the 97-98 winter was a very active one storm wise and often had quite favorable snowstorm tracks, but was very devoid of cold air. That led to interior sites like State College and Williamsport seeing an average winter snow wise while LSV sites saw a pretty lousy winter (Harrisburg had ~12" for that winter). Not saying we're going to see a repeat of course. A large portion of the Pacific up the west coast into the Gulf of Alaska persists with also having above average SST's (which has aided in the major Pac ridging we have had the last couple winters). So it remains to be seen how that whole Pacific pattern interacts with itself as we get into the fall and so forth. And of course the ENSO forecasts are just that.. forecasts. Reality could have an early peak and fade of the Nino in time for the winter months. Either way we're likely looking at a moderate nino winter at least, and I would wager we could see a milder winter (at least IN COMPARISON to the last couple).. which isn't necessarily a bad thing. If I were an I-95er.. I would hope the "strong" nino event doesn't come to fruition.. as the correlation between that and below average snowfall is quite a solid one. Great write up MAG. I'm curious to see if we can get any help from the NPAC combined with the Nino. This type of setup could be tricky for the big cities, but people 50 miles west could be grinning. One things for sure, the flood gates of moisture on the east coast should be there. Just have to see how we cooperate temperature wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Nice information, MAG. If we can get the northern jet to cooperate this winter it should be fun times for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 1.04" of rain last night reported from back home in Linglestown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Everyones pretty quiet on the storm chances for today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Looks like another line falling apart right before State College Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 If you live in Central PA, it's a pretty good bet to not expect much in the way of SVR and just enjoy the 10 minute downpours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Anddddd Williamsport fids the only hole in the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Storms, what storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 The ones moving in right now...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 The ones moving in right now...lol I guess it did rain overnight, but was after 12:30 when I went to bed. No idea if it stormed here, we didn't hear anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 I guess it did rain overnight, but was after 12:30 when I went to bed. No idea if it stormed here, we didn't hear anything. It hit here right about 3:00am, and it damn near caused a catastrophe. Our dog is scared of storms so she ran upstairs and laid down in the hallway (unbeknownst to me). I didn't see her there and tripped over her. When I "kicked" her, she stood up which knocked me off balance and I took a nasty header right over her and into the wall and the floor. I'm lucky I didn't break anything the way I landed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Sheesh, did it ever get cold out. I fueled my truck in Columbia, NJ (Delaware Water Gap) at 3:00pm, and it was a muggy 85 degrees. It's only 66 here in Tamaqua right now...and windy too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted July 16, 2015 Author Share Posted July 16, 2015 Feels more like an early Fall night instead of a mid-Summer one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 It hit here right about 3:00am, and it damn near caused a catastrophe. Our dog is scared of storms so she ran upstairs and laid down in the hallway (unbeknownst to me). I didn't see her there and tripped over her. When I "kicked" her, she stood up which knocked me off balance and I took a nasty header right over her and into the wall and the floor. I'm lucky I didn't break anything the way I landed. Yikes! Lucky indeed. I've tripped over our cat who LOVES to sleep curled up in the dead center of the hallway upstairs in the dead of night too. Not. Fun. Last night my wife nearly chopped the end of a finger off pruning some bushes. Be careful, kids, with sharp objects! There was still a flap of skin so she got stitched up and should be OK in a few weeks. Fun times at urgent care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Yikes! Lucky indeed. I've tripped over our cat who LOVES to sleep curled up in the dead center of the hallway upstairs in the dead of night too. Not. Fun. Last night my wife nearly chopped the end of a finger off pruning some bushes. Be careful, kids, with sharp objects! There was still a flap of skin so she got stitched up and should be OK in a few weeks. Fun times at urgent care. Damn, bet that hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 12 stitches but they saved the tip from falling off completely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 12 stitches but they saved the tip from falling off completely! Good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 12 stitches but they saved the tip from falling off completely! Good news indeed! Hope she heals quickly and completely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 I thought it was to be nice today with a slight chance of a storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Instead it's overcast and close to 80 percent humidity and no rain on the radar. This weekend's gonna suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted July 18, 2015 Author Share Posted July 18, 2015 Instead it's overcast and close to 80 percent humidity and no rain on the radar. This weekend's gonna suck. I work 7-3 Sunday so don't remind me...forecast high is 92... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Daybreak thunderstorms this morning. Usually I like these things, but my grandson has a little league all-star game this afternoon at 1:00pm. Hopefully it doesn't rain too hard and that the field becomes unplayable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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