winterwarlock Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 Beautiful day today imby. Lot of sun in the afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 30, 2015 Author Share Posted June 30, 2015 So about this severe chance Tuesday into Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 The 18z RGEM hammers the area tomorrow. It's been on a roll lately. Just something to keep an eye on. 18z RGEM barely gets any precip east of the Hudson river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 18z RGEM barely gets any precip east of the Hudson river. The 18z RGEM hammers the area tomorrow. It's been on a roll lately. Just something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 18z RGEM barely gets any precip east of the Hudson river.You're expecting it to have an exact handle on discrete convection? The HRRR can't even get it right two hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 You're expecting it to have an exact handle on discrete convection? The HRRR can't even get it right two hours out. Nope, I doubt it has the exact handle on discrete convection, but we cannot assume that it's our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Hey if you want to keep all the rain on your side of the river that's just fine with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 30, 2015 Author Share Posted June 30, 2015 Nice storms in WNJ and NE PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Nice storms in WNJ and NE PA And heading away from us. Unusual movement direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 30, 2015 Author Share Posted June 30, 2015 And heading away from us. Unusual movement direction. They're moving NNE. Not that unusual to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2112wxgrl Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Moderate to heavy rain in Wantage NJ. No thunder, lightning, or wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Moderate to heavy rain in Wantage NJ. No thunder, lightning, or wind. We'll see what this afternoon has to offer... While CAPE has only marginally been increasing in the area (still to the south), the CIN indices have decreased nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Don't expect much of anything East of the Hudson River today. The boundary is over E PA and Western NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 With that being said, some models have an area of heavier rain crossing the area after 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 30, 2015 Author Share Posted June 30, 2015 Don't expect much of anything East of the Hudson River today. The boundary is over E PA and Western NJ. Tonight into tomorrow will be our chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Tonight into tomorrow will be our chanceThat would be true for NYC and points East. Certain parts of our area have already seen rain this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 30, 2015 Author Share Posted June 30, 2015 That would be true for NYC and points East. Certain parts of our area have already seen rain this morning. Yeah i was referring to that. And with that NNE movement i see as to why we dont get into the action till tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Summer feel good imby...a good deal of sun and humid...me likey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Summer feel good imby...a good deal of sun and humid...me likey party cloudy over here. feels good. Wish it was 10 degrees warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 It's actually completely overcast here in Ramsey with convective debris overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 More rain here smh... .14" so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Beautiful out! Doesn't feel that humid to me with the breeze..where is the heat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Beautiful out! Doesn't feel that humid to me with the breeze..where is the heat? 45% humidity at KNYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Another crappy day... 66 w/ lgt rain .20" so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 For the "westerners" on here... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0372.html Associated MD: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1240 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN PA...WRN NJ...SERN NY...MD...NRN DE...NRN VA...AND WASHINGTON DC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 301631Z - 301900Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND POSE AN INCREASING RISK FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. WW ISSUANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AREAS OF INSOLATION FROM THE NRN VA PIEDMONT TO S-CNTRL PA AMIDST A BROAD...MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN ERN-CONUS TROUGH. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THOSE AREAS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF S-CNTRL/SERN PA PER RECENT 7-KM CAPPI RADAR DATA. AS LOW-LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUES TO ERODE ACROSS PARTS OF E-CNTRL/NERN PA AND POINTS FARTHER N/E...THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE SUBJECTED TO CONTINUED DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AMIDST RICH PBL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. THIS WILL FOSTER A CONTINUED INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON IN THE LOW-MLCINH ENVIRONMENT... ESPECIALLY AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION ACROSS PA GRAZES THE AREA. THE PRESENCE OF 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. WHERE SFC WINDS REMAIN BACKED -- ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE VERTICAL MIXING IS MORE SUPPRESSED -- LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME RISK FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. THIS WOULD PARTICULARLY BE THE CASE IN ERN PA AND VICINITY WHERE INTERPOLATION BETWEEN REGIONAL VWPS IMPLY THE STRONGEST FLOW WITH THE LLJ. THE MODEST NATURE OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND UNCERTAINTY IN ANTECEDENT CLOUD/BUOYANCY EVOLUTION YIELD SOME LIMITATIONS TO EXACT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY CONFIDENCE...THOUGH THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. ..COHEN/HART.. 06/30/2015 ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 372NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK120 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OFDELAWAREMARYLANDNEW JERSEYSOUTHEAST NEW YORKCENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIACOASTAL WATERS* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM UNTIL800 PM EDT.* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLESCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLEA TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLESUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND SPREAD ACROSSTHE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND BOWSPOSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATEDTORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHNORTHWEST OF WILKESBARRE PENNSYLVANIA TO 35 MILES SOUTHEAST OFHAGERSTOWN MARYLAND. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEETHE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS AREFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCHAREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FORTHREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTSAND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLYDO PRODUCE TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Quite breezy in Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 TORNADO WARNINGPAC011-029-301830-/O.NEW.KPHI.TO.W.0005.150630T1800Z-150630T1830Z/BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ200 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR...NORTHWESTERN CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTH CENTRAL BERKS COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...* UNTIL 230 PM EDT* AT 200 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORMCAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATEDNEAR HONEY BROOK...OR 7 MILES EAST OF NEW HOLLAND...AND MOVINGNORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...BIRDSBORO...PARKESBURG...HONEY BROOK...ELVERSON...NEW MORGAN...GLENMOORE...PUGHTOWN...ST. LAWRENCE...LORANE AND REIFFTON.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWESTFLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILEHOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER ANDPROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 TORNADO WARNING PAC011-029-301830- /O.NEW.KPHI.TO.W.0005.150630T1800Z-150630T1830Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 200 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA... SOUTH CENTRAL BERKS COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA... * UNTIL 230 PM EDT * AT 200 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HONEY BROOK...OR 7 MILES EAST OF NEW HOLLAND...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BIRDSBORO...PARKESBURG...HONEY BROOK...ELVERSON...NEW MORGAN... GLENMOORE...PUGHTOWN...ST. LAWRENCE...LORANE AND REIFFTON. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. Rotation looks marginal for that cell... Now for the warning just issued by Allentown, that's a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Where is the guy from Allentown that always complains about getting shafted? ORNADO WARNINGPAC077-301845-/O.NEW.KPHI.TO.W.0006.150630T1813Z-150630T1845Z/BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ213 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR...CENTRAL LEHIGH COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...* UNTIL 245 PM EDT* AT 212 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORMCAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATEDOVER CLAUSSVILLE...OR 10 MILES WEST OF ALLENTOWN...AND MOVINGNORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...ALLENTOWN...SCHNECKSVILLE AND COFFEETOWN AROUND 230 PM EDT.NEFFS AROUND 235 PM EDT.EMERALD AROUND 240 PM EDT.NORTHAMPTON...SLATINGTON AND WALNUTPORT AROUND 245 PM EDT.OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDEHOKENDAUQUA...FULLERTON...CATASAUQUA...COPLAY AND NORTH CATASAUQUA.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWESTFLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILEHOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER ANDPROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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