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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7


wxmx

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The 0Z 4K Nam is spitting out decent snowfall for FW on West. Also, if it verifies, it's going to be a huge bust over Kansas with most snow being pushed of to the east. They are still forecasting a big snow up there.

 

Per WxBell, 8" jackpot just W of Ft. Worth. I'll bet anything that doesn't come close to verifying. 

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I'm not getting hopeful for anything, in case we get anything more than flurries it will be a nice surprise. But, ICT just posted to FB they are now re-working their forecast to lower snowfall in KS. Means they may be going with a more east track possibly...they didn't explain why. Storm been a bust up there though.

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That storm is big, tough, and slow. Some people in TX not expecting snow are going to get it.

 

 

Wrap around snow has been licking the heels of Round Rock/Austin and Killeen/Copperas Cove.  Sucked in a little too much dry air and the low is starting to slip north.  There was the slimmest of hope for a snow miracle in College Station, but that would be too much those for.

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The Weatherbell guys think January-March 2015 will be like early 1958, 1966, 1987, 1988, 2007.

 

Some pretty cold years here in TX, CO and the SW. Albuquerque had 9.6" of snow in January-May of those years. The analogs they use more or less fit with my idea of a cold spring in TX and the SW too. My weather analogs which have worked very well for Albuquerque for both temps and snowfall so far, showed 7.9" of snow in January to May 2016. The Weatherbell years imply one month from Jan-Apr will have five inches of snow in Albuquerque, while the analogs working for me imply one month will have six inches of snow in Albuquerque. All in all..still looks promising for the SW over the next few months.

 

cd70.57.252.202.361.14.54.24.prcp.png

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Actually, if the warm air aloft above is unstable enough above the low level cold air, you can get hail with temperatures WAY below 47F. In 1964, I saw 1/2 hail during a freezing rain event and a temperature in the 20's.

Steve

 

Yea, I've been hailed on in the mountains with temps in the 30s, but the hail didn't have that far to fall. To answer his question, a lot goes into determining hail potential (look at the SHIP formula) and Sunday produced some nice hail around the area. 

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I haven't been following the models too closely the past few days, but models seem to be indicating a pretty decent over running setup, especially across our southern areas. Right now, most models are indicating the strong NE flow to usher in just enough dry air to keep any measurable precip just across the south, but if we can get enough precip to over run that cold air in place, we could see a bit more of wintry mix show up on future model runs. At any rate, even now, models are hinting at spitting some light returns across the area. With a very active STJ, I'd watch this period from late Thursday night thru Saturday night for any improvements/changes. 

 

gfs_asnow_scus_22.png

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