Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[Quixotic1]

Snow cover in NA isn't horrible.  The depth is pretty meh.  

[bubba hotep]

Models are certainly trending warmer for DFW next week. The 12z Euro/Euro EPS say that DFW might not even break into the 20's. The 18z GFS is torching when the Monday system comes through

[Roy]

Some stations have been hyping like crazy over just a dusting. Crazy. Trends aren't exactly great, but we will see.

[bubba hotep]

Some stations have been hyping like crazy over just a dusting. Crazy. Trends aren't exactly great, but we will see.

Yea, lots of time for things to change but the surface looks warm. 850 upward looks good and maybe models are modifying the surface too fast? A timing change would be beneficial, preferably faster to catch the coldest of early morning Monday.

[aggiegeog]

While we may get a lucky light snow Monday I am really looking at the 15-18th for a big winter storm that gives good snow to all along and north of I-20 throughout the South. February 2010 dreams with the way teles are setting up.

[bubba hotep]

00Z GFS is colder but drier...  can DFW thread the needle? 

[aggiegeog]

Canadian picking up on a lot more moisture over E TX than other models tomorrow night. The regional Canadian has it really wrapping up and bringing heavy wind blown snow to southern OK Sat morning. Could see some strong storms tomorrow night over E TX and if they get wrapped around to the backside of the low then someone could see some pretty significant snow Saturday morning.

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS would be fun in long range... It's a good example of why we need the N. Pacific to play along.

[wxmx]

12z GFS would be fun in long range... It's a good example of why we need the N. Pacific to play along.

Yes, it changed it's tune, and makes more sense for the modeled pattern...from run of the mill cold to really frigid for the central plains and northern portion of our region. I think it will get a bit colder further south in subsequent runs. Arctic cold really likes to scratch it's back down the Rockies spine full length.

 

The 12z run shows well below normal heights for a good portion of the CONUS, and especially for our region, with an accent on the western portion of our region and the CONUS SW. STJ is fully energized, with a constant passage of embedded s/w in the longwave trough. Looks like fun times ahead for some of us (with a weight for NM and W and N TX).

[wxmx]

12z run cumulative 500mb height anomalies.

[aggiegeog]

12z run cumulative 500mb height anomalies.

Been a long time since I have seen blocking like that. Very good set up.

[DFWWeather]

Let's be very cautious here. After all we are talking the GFS here and ECMWF 12z is not out yet, and likely won't be as extreme. Also, there is really very little cold air to be had in the typical source regions to be delivered. Most of those areas have been flooded by warmer Pacific air. Last check, I had to go over to northeastern Siberia to find any true cold are (30 to 40 below). This is what is usually setting up in the Arctic/Alaska/Northwest Territories to deliver any real cold down here. I really have serious doubts this winter can deliver. I hope I'm wrong!

[aggiegeog]

Let's be very cautious here. After all we are talking the GFS here and ECMWF 12z is not out yet, and likely won't be as extreme. Also, there is really very little cold air to be had in the typical source regions to be delivered. Most of those areas have been flooded by warmer Pacific air. Last check, I had to go over to northeastern Siberia to find any true cold are (30 to 40 below). This is what is usually setting up in the Arctic/Alaska/Northwest Territories to deliver any real cold down here. I really have serious doubts this winter can deliver. I hope I'm wrong!

When I have looked at source region cold in the past it does not seem to have to be as cold as expected to get cold down here. For example last Nov we got down in the teens while the source region cold a few days before was not much below 0. Of course the colder it is the colder it will be when it arrives down here. With a very -AO cold in N Canada is hard to come by as there is ridging up there and the PV is not active to generate the polar cold. I think we are all taking individual GFS runs with a grain of salt right now.

[wxmx]

The thing that I cannot wrap around my head is that with a near -5 AO, the surface can't build a decent arctic high. With the highs shown in the 12z runs of the Euro and GFS, the strongest high in Canada is a wimpy 1045mb high  (and that's 10 days out) that slowly sips south. Yes, the source region is warm, but is it that warm that stable, efficiently irradiating atmospheric conditions over ice and snow and almost no sunlight can't generate a 1050+mb surface high in Canada? 

[wxmx]

I mean, come on...

 

 

 

The GFS has trended colder overall, but the Euro hasn't budged. If this verifies, then I'm with you DFWWeather, and will give up on this winter and all future strong El Niño winters.

[aggiegeog]

12Z GFS Ensembles indicate a train of Gulf lows starting next week with a 1035 mb high over the top. It has a mean of 2" over NE TX and a max of 30" over NE TX over the next 16 days. I'll take those chances.

[DFWWeather]

12Z GFS Ensembles indicate a train of Gulf lows starting next week with a 1035 mb high over the top. It has a mean of 2" over NE TX and a max of 30" over NE TX over the next 16 days. I'll take those chances.

 

Yes, but for Monday, today's 12z ECMWF is dry as a bone with 0 qpf for DFW. This model has consistently outperformed GFS this winter.

[DFWWeather]

I mean, come on...

 

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The GFS has trended colder overall, but the Euro hasn't budged. If this verifies, then I'm with you DFWWeather, and will give up on this winter and all future strong El Niño winters.

 

I thought this winter had so much potential too. Man am I disappointed. Here is to hoping it turns around! If this winter doesn't deliver, I don't think there is hope in strong El Niño's.

 

The question is why isn't the cold building with such a great pattern? Something else must be going on, but what? It's like some signal is happening in strong El Niño that is being overlooked.

[bubba hotep]

Look at the orientation of the anomalies over the N. Pacific off of W. Canada. The Euro is pretty consistent w/ -AO/El Nino/Warm January and the GFS w/ -AO/El Nino/Cold January.

[Quixotic1]

The thing that I cannot wrap around my head is that with a near -5 AO, the surface can't build a decent arctic high. With the highs shown in the 12z runs of the Euro and GFS, the strongest high in Canada is a wimpy 1045mb high  (and that's 10 days out) that slowly sips south. Yes, the source region is warm, but is it that warm that stable, efficiently irradiating atmospheric conditions over ice and snow and almost no sunlight can't generate a 1050+mb surface high in Canada? 

 

Could the disconnect between the troposphere and the stratosphere vortex split be a possible cause?  I saw some tweet (and I can't remember who) where the strat temp at the pole was ridiculously cold while that -5 block was under it.   

[aggiegeog]

Could the disconnect between the troposphere and the stratosphere vortex split be a possible cause?  I saw some tweet (and I can't remember who) where the strat temp at the pole was ridiculously cold while that -5 block was under it.   

I could be wrong but the strat shouldn't matter if the the trop is in a blocking set up.

[aggiegeog]

The GEM continues to be the most bullish on precip tomorrow night. Most models have some snow making down to the Red River by Sat morning. 

GFS is basically dry on Monday, but there is some very light precip on the ensemble so basically still showing what we have been talking about (flurries to maybe a very light accumulation).

[aggiegeog]

The NM mountains continue to have a great winter with Ski Santa Fe reporting a base of 93" with snow falling and even Sipapu is up to 43" with snow falling and much more in the forecast. I am pretty sure I will make it up there within a month or so.

[wxmx]

Look at the orientation of the anomalies over the N. Pacific off of W. Canada. The Euro is pretty consistent w/ -AO/El Nino/Warm January and the GFS w/ -AO/El Nino/Cold January.

That may be part of the reason...heights in Alaska, but still, I think that pattern would build big cold surface highs in central Canada. It's still way out there, so I still have hope the surface map will change much more than the mid level map.

 

Strat temps don't directly affect surface temps. A warm stratosphere would heighten the chance of continued high latitude ridging vs a cold stratosphere.

[aggiegeog]

Everything is pointing to a period similar to Feb 2010 which produced some historic snow in Texas. Hope this setup produces similar results. I can almost guarantee all of northern Texas will see snow this month and into Feb that should spread even further south. We are now in the heart of winter and the -AO has materialized along with a very active STJ. 

[wxmx]

12z GFS and Euro have shown to some degree what I have been telling. This is a potentially frigid scenario for our region. Surface arctic highs are being built and they are coming south. Higher heights migrate from Davis straits to most of Canada and northern CONUS...that delivers the cold and pushes the polar jet south, close to the STJ. The GFS is unrealistically dry for our region still, IMO. The 01/16 - 01/18 are the dates to watch for something significant.

[bubba hotep]

R2R consistency has been a no show on all models here lately. The 12z Euro and GFS are just ugly... if it isn't going to snow then I have no desire for the cold to be around. However, the pattern is encouraging and good thing the 00z runs will bring us something different to look at.  

[Quixotic1]

Good news is about half of the GFS and GGEM ensemble members show snow in the area over the next 16 days. It ain't much but it's something.

[bubba hotep]

Good news is about half of the GFS and GGEM ensemble members show snow in the area over the next 16 days. It ain't much but it's something.

 

There has also been uptick in Euro EPS members showing snow and the last two control runs have been some of the snowiest yet this winter. Also, some of the Euro EPS members are crazy cold, down near zero for DFW!

[aggiegeog]

Looks stormy tonight in Deep E TX and SE TX. And there is a chance for some spots in NW Texas to get some good snow from this storm. Some flakes may show up over N and NE TX tomorrow also as the air aloft cools. Then Monday could see a flake or two. 

Next weekend is starting to look very interesting though.