Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[bubba hotep]

18z GFS has DFW at 77 on 2/1!!

[Quixotic1]

12z GFS is just hideous! Less than 0.25" of rain and maybe only one or two more freezes at DFW this month. It really can't get much worse than that for the last two weeks of January. Oh, did I mention it has us in the 70s on February 1st!

I know I can be a pessimist, but it's not unrealistic to think that the all time record of fewest freezes in a winter (14 last in 2011-2012) is in danger. Given a freeze tonight would put us at 9 so far.

[Jebman]

Man I miss living in DC when big storm potential shows up. Going to be a wild week ovet in the Mid Atlantic subforum.

Yeah, they got us in Storm Mode from 5 days out. You KNOW something is up.

[bubba hotep]

I know I can be a pessimist, but it's not unrealistic to think that the all time record of fewest freezes in a winter (14 last in 2011-2012) is in danger. Given a freeze tonight would put us at 9 so far.

I think we just need to get past these next 2 or 3 weeks and then things should turn. Hopefully, we can score the last part of the winter.

[DoctorMu]

We actually over performed in CLL overnight and hit 30°F for our coldest night so far.

 

Little victories - we'll take them.

[Quixotic1]

Man, I miss living in DC when big storm potential shows up. Going to be a wild week over in the Mid Atlantic subforum.

Just took a peek over there. I root for the MA and SE. 35 - 40" sounds insane considering how crummy the winter has been for everyone. good luck to them.

[raindancewx]

If they get a big time Nor'easter it would certainly cancel out the general storm trend so far.

 

[bubba hotep]

If they get a big time Nor'easter it would certainly cancel out the general storm trend so far.

This system still has a good bit of bust potential but the overall state of the atmosphere has calmed some and that should help the models not be so flippant. One of the many big differences between what is being modeled now vs the winter so far is there is a nice cold HP to the N of the system as it moves into the MA. There has been lower heights over the Great Lakes and SE Canada much of this cooler stretch.

[aggiegeog]

GFS did pretty good leading up to Saturday's storm and it is now hinting at another one next week for us. The last two runs have shown 3-6" from the Hill Country through E TX next Tuesday. I am sure the models will fluctuate plenty over the next week but at least it is not 300+ hours out and it has shown up on consecutive runs. Now I say that it will prob show 55 and dry on the 12Z.

[Quixotic1]

Since it's slow here, the MA subforum is an absolute howl since the euro threw a curve at 12z.  Part of me is jealous.  The other part of me knows how nerve wracking it can be waiting for the next run.  

[raindancewx]

This is one of the spot checks I use on my analog forecasts in El Nino years. Will be interesting to see where Philadelphia ends up after this snowstorm. 

 

[bubba hotep]

Sure, why not

 

[aggiegeog]

Models are still hinting at at least a chance of NE TX snow this eve with the SREF being the most aggressive.

We already have had .5" of rain. Most in less then an hour.

[bubba hotep]

Hmmm, we are down to 40. Temp was 44 this morning with forecast of it rising to 46. Looks like there was an update for the temp to hold steady at 44.

[bubba hotep]

Looks like Plano/Richardson could be about to see ice falling from the sky but in the form of hail.

[bubba hotep]

Also see reports of snow mixing in with rain?

[aggiegeog]

I have seen reports of small hail around my house earlier and in DFW recently. The air aloft is cold.

[cheese007]

Hailing at a pretty good clip right now in Richardson. Pea size

[bubba hotep]

Wife sent me pics from the house and the ground is almost white.

[Chinook]

10% tornado threat across Louisiana and parts of Mississippi. One tornado warning at the TX/LA border right now.

[aggiegeog]

Instead of temps rising into the 50s today they are falling into the 30s here in the Tyler area. If the precip area around DFW can stay far enough south maybe this area can manage a few flakes around dinnertime.

[Quixotic1]

Sitting at home on prom night......

[bubba hotep]

Sitting at home on prom night......

 

I got this at least! Well... my wife took a picture of it.

 

[wxmx]

Small chance of some flakes flying around the higher terrain here on Wednesday. Euro is not enthused, so I'm still skeptic.

[Quixotic1]

I got this at least! Well... my wife took a picture of it.

 

 

Awesome.  That's the "too big for sleet-too small for hail' gray area.   

[bubba hotep]

Things look bleak... A repeat of last winter might be a best case scenario at this point. Hope the last part of February or early March can deliver something.

[aggiegeog]

Things look bleak... A repeat of last winter might be a best case scenario at this point. Hope the last part of February or early March can deliver something.

You see the 300+ hour 12Z GFS storm? 6"+ for most all of us in northern TX and a 15" bullseye over NE TX. Ill take that one 

[bubba hotep]

You see the 300+ hour 12Z GFS storm? 6"+ for most all of us in northern TX and a 15" bullseye over NE TX. Ill take that one 

That would be nice! It cuts a little too far inland as it goes up the East Coast or it could give Jonas a run for its money. The time frame is a little sooner than I was thinking but not that far off. It looks like things could start to change in our favor around the 7th and then there looks to be a 3 or so week window of winter opportunity. However, we probably still have a couple of weeks of boredom to endure before then.   

[DoctorMu]

Not a huge TWC fan, although WU looks promising (am usually at work)...but the geek chat between Cantore and Siedel on Louisiana Ave was pretty epic.  This bombe looks like a Top 2 All Timer. One of the family was in Texas inspecting facilities and had to cut and run early before the place shut down...took the 7 am flight from IAH to Dulles fortunately, because this thing won up harder and faster.  

 

Flights are now being suspended.

[aggiegeog]

That would be nice! It cuts a little too far inland as it goes up the East Coast or it could give Jonas a run for its money. The time frame is a little sooner than I was thinking but not that far off. It looks like things could start to change in our favor around the 7th and then there looks to be a 3 or so week window of winter opportunity. However, we probably still have a couple of weeks of boredom to endure before then.   

I agree that that storm is a tad earlier than I would expect and it will likely get pushed back on future runs. I have been expecting the Feb 10-Mar 10 period to be the sweet spot. Selfishly I hope it does get scooted back some because I am planning to go up to NM to play in the snow in early Feb and I would prefer the snow to be confined to the mountains for the drive up and back.