Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[bubba hotep]

It really can't get much uglier than the 6z GFS for DFW. Bone dry and above freezing throughout...

[bubba hotep]

Just to show how bad things are looking, the 00z Euro EPS has zero members with snow at DFW over the next 10 days. This is the first time I've seen that in a long time.

[Quixotic1]

So far, this winter has been the worst since 98-99.  Didn't see a flake that year.   

 

Really, comparing the hype with the results, this is even worse.  Every model had Texas in cold anomalies.  Some showed the SE and the Southern Rockies.  Every one of them showed Texas being BN temps and AN precip.  Epic failure.  

 

Somebody needs to tell JB he looks mentally ill crowing he nailed it.  He might get February, but it looks doubtful.    

[aggiegeog]

Lets put our hope in the 12Z GEM. Actually lets not as I will be driving back from NM that day. Speaking of they have gotten a good amount more powder on top of a deep base that was already in place. I am expecting somewhere around 50" at our place at around 9,000 feet. Should be fun shoveling through the plowed snow to reach the front door.

[bubba hotep]

So far, this winter has been the worst since 98-99. Didn't see a flake that year.

Really, comparing the hype with the results, this is even worse. Every model had Texas in cold anomalies. Some showed the SE and the Southern Rockies. Every one of them showed Texas being BN temps and AN precip. Epic failure.

Somebody needs to tell JB he looks mentally ill crowing he nailed it. He might get February, but it looks doubtful.

His outlook was in horrible shape last year at this point for our area and winter came on strong to save it at the very end. Can we pull it out again? It is hard to look beyond the model cycles once we get into February because climo starts working against us. However, I still have hope for the last part of February.

[bubba hotep]

Lets put our hope in the 12Z GEM. Actually lets not as I will be driving back from NM that day. Speaking of they have gotten a good amount more powder on top of a deep base that was already in place. I am expecting somewhere around 50" at our place at around 9,000 feet. Should be fun shoveling through the plowed snow to reach the front door.

Cool! Send some pics our way.

[aggiegeog]

Cool! Send some pics our way.

Will do. I am glad that my trip works out to be in between big storms and we should see a decent little storm on Friday with maybe 3-6".

[bubba hotep]

Went back and looked at some of the historical MJO WHs. I thought that the MJO was strong during 09-10 and 02-03 but it wasn't spectacular. However, look at another El Niño: 1988. That is some serious amplitude.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/198801.phase.90days.gif

When I saw that chart it didn't seem to jive with what you would expect from a strong east based Nino.

 

(ETA: Good thing '88 (the chart below) wasn't an east based nino....)

 

ETA: See below for some gibberish and then a chart from '98....

 

Here is a different version for the same time frame that seems to be more of what you would expect. This is from Mike Ventrice:

 

 

Always interesting to see different interpretations of the same data.

 

So while we are on the MJO, the GFS is keeping it pretty incoherent and in Phase 4 through mid-month while the Euro has it gaining amplitude and moving through Phase 5. When you look at the GEFS and the Euro EPS H5 around the 15th they are pretty different. The Euro EPS seems to be doing a much better job of capturing what might happen in the Pacific over the next two weeks. Anyway, falling for the models showing that something might happen before mid-month was obviously a fools errand. Much like last winter, it looks like we will be hanging our hats on a two week period to deliver the goods (DFW area speaking)

[Quixotic1]

Makes sense to me...Albuquerque had over 11 inches of snow that March and April. MJO was in phase 1-2-3 in both March AND April. That would have been an amazing Spring.

 

What I wouldn't give for some of your elevation. That would probably add a foot to our averages.

[raindancewx]

Looks like NDJ is peak ONI? Official ONI isn't out yet but January anomalies/temps were greater than Oct.

 

Last two columns are Nino 3.4, raw temp, and anomaly.

 

[bubba hotep]

Hmm, some interesting trends for this weekend, esp if you put any stock in the Para Euro. 12z GFS was a step in that direction

[wxmx]

When I saw that chart it didn't seem to jive with what you would expect from a strong east based Nino.

 

Here is a different version for the same time frame that seems to be more of what you would expect. This is from Mike Ventrice:

 

 

Always interesting to see different interpretations of the same data.

 

So while we are on the MJO, the GFS is keeping it pretty incoherent and in Phase 4 through mid-month while the Euro has it gaining amplitude and moving through Phase 5. When you look at the GEFS and the Euro EPS H5 around the 15th they are pretty different. The Euro EPS seems to be doing a much better job of capturing what might happen in the Pacific over the next two weeks. Anyway, falling for the models showing that something might happen before mid-month was obviously a fools errand. Much like last winter, it looks like we will be hanging our hats on a two week period to deliver the goods (DFW area speaking)

Above is 1988, below is 1998, so it's different data.

[bubba hotep]

Above is 1988, below is 1998, so it's different data.

 

Wha, wha, whannnn... If only I could read

[bubba hotep]

The GEFS and Euro EPS both agree that we will finally see the +PNA nightmare start to breakdown as we head towards mid-month. 

 

[aggiegeog]

I really hope the neutral PNA materializes. It is the only way we will get any benefit from the periodic blocking. In the meantime I will be in NM tomorrow to get my taste of winter. If we drive straight through to get there in the morning I will get the joy of shoveling snow in wind chills well below 0.

[bubba hotep]

I really hope the neutral PNA materializes. It is the only way we will get any benefit from the periodic blocking. In the meantime I will be in NM tomorrow to get my taste of winter. If we drive straight through to get there in the morning I will get the joy of shoveling snow in wind chills well below 0.

 

I hear you! It is hard to be patient when we have such a short "winter" season here in N. Texas but things look to be better during the 2nd half of February and early March. The January MJO Phases 7&8 favor a positive PNA and we have been stuck with that since then. Hopefully, as the MJO comes back to life the PNA will break down. Then mix in some -EPO and we will be set... It is funny, b/c last winter we were in the same boat at this point and the PNA broke down and the EPO went negative to give us that rocking couple of weeks at the end of February/ first of March. The -EPO was a lot easier to come by back then though. 

[Quixotic1]

I went back and looked through my pics last year. February 14th had me sitting outside with a monster scotch in shorts. Two weeks later had 6" inches IMBY and almost 7" IMBY on the fifth of March. It can happen.

[aggiegeog]

Seeing first snow of the season, in Las Vegas, NM. -2 here this morning.

[raindancewx]

So...using ERSST V3 this El Nino got to 2.5C above normal in NDJ. Using ERSST V4 this El Nino got to 2.3C above normal in NDJ. The old way is stronger than 1997-98.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears_ERSSTv3b.shtml.

 

In Albuquerque, the six strongest El Ninos in DJF (>1.5 ONI on ERSST V4) had wetter than average Marches. Of the remaining 20 El Ninos...only 8 had wet Marches. So I like March for good moisture in the SW in lieu of the DJF ONI which is probably going to be >1.8 minimally, and very probably >2.0.

[bubba hotep]

So...using ERSST V3 this El Nino got to 2.5C above normal in NDJ. Using ERSST V4 this El Nino got to 2.3C above normal in NDJ. The old way is stronger than 1997-98.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears_ERSSTv3b.shtml.

 

In Albuquerque, the six strongest El Ninos in DJF (>1.5 ONI on ERSST V4) had wetter than average Marches. Of the remaining 20 El Ninos...only 8 had wet Marches. So I like March for good moisture in the SW in lieu of the DJF ONI which is probably going to be >1.8 minimally, and very probably >2.0.

 

That also holds true for a lot of Texas as well. I was holding out hope that Jan and Feb wouldn't be dry but it looks like we will end up dry over that period, just like the analogs suggested. 

 

Here are the final Jan anomalies

 

[aggiegeog]

This is the best I have ever seen the snow in the Sangres of NM. In the yard I postholed up to my waist trying to walk around. Even down in the valley there is at least a foot here in Taos where I am right now. Temps are nice with lows a bit below zero and highs warming each day to maybe above freezing this weekend. Sadly looks like I won't see any fresh snow fall this week though.

[bubba hotep]

Long expected changes finally starting to show up in the extended range models. Last 2 Euro operational runs have been very encouraging beyond D8. The 12z Euro EPS & Control looked the best they have in a while.

[bubba hotep]

Look for some wild model rides over the coming days, the 12z Euro EPS has a D10 spread at DFW from the low 60s to the lower teens

[jdrenken]

Mid-February Storm write-up here and here.

[raindancewx]

I could see it JD, but given that a lot of places in New Mexico had record snowfall in late February 2015, it's a bit hard to imagine a second huge February in a row. Albuquerque had 9.8" in Feb 2015 (9.6" Feb 26-28), can't imagine getting two years in a row well above the long term average of ~1.9". I could see a big storm north or south of my area though.

 

I do like the period after the 20th for the core of the SW - I think the favorable East Coast pattern has to end for the SW to get inundated with storms again. Statistically, the six great El Ninos (40-41, 57-58, 72-73, 82-83, 91-92, 97-98) behave differently than all other El Ninos in March in Albuquerque. Without the great El Ninos March precip patterns here are very similar for El Nino vs. Non-El Ninos - 8/20 wet, vs. 23/58 wet respectively...vs. 6/6 for the great El Ninos. February in the great El Ninos is by contrast a pretty typical month usually, with no difference from non-El Nino years.

 

That being said...I did have the blizzard on Dec 26/27 recurring sometime around Feb 10. 

[bubba hotep]

38 and sprinkles....

[bubba hotep]

More of the same, boring weather in Texas...

 

[Quixotic1]

Good news: sleet on the windshield this morning.

Bad news: saw some killdeer running around.

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro Para is a pretty classic El Nino N. TX snow setup by D8 but 12z Euro, Euro EPS, GFS, and GEFS are all snowless. Every. Single. Member. Is without snow across all of those. 

[Quixotic1]

I got one card to play and I'm saving it. It worked last year.....