Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[Quixotic1]

We are done. Deader than dad's old hatband.

[bubba hotep]

We are done. Deader than dad's old hatband.

 

The 12z Euro EPS did throw us a bone with a few snowy members... 

[raindancewx]

For what it's worth, the last time Boston got below 0 this late in the year was...1958. Feb-Mar 1958 are some legendary months. Would gladly take the Spring of 1958 any year here.

[Quixotic1]

The 12z Euro EPS did throw us a bone with a few snowy members...

I've gone back and looked at 58 and there were a couple of stretches in February and March that had cold and even some snow (February).

On the lighter side, I'd love to compare the long range climatic models with some random map generator.

[oldlogin]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA

1028 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES  HAS ISSUED A

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

  SOUTHEASTERN AVOYELLES PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

 

* UNTIL 1115 AM CST

    

* AT 1027 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A

  TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SIMMESPORT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

 

  HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. 

 

  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT 

           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. 

           DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE 

           DAMAGE IS LIKELY. 

 

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...

  SIMMESPORT AROUND 1045 AM CST.

[raindancewx]

Here is my exhaustive pros/cons list for March based on local/global data.

 

PROs (in favor of a wet March, possibly cold/snowy)

-----

1)El Nino (wetter than La/N)

2) Warm AMO N-A (wetter than =,- phases)

3) Warm PDO N-A (wetter than =,- phases)

4) CFS V2 says wet March - and has for all of Feb

5) Strong DJF (>1.5) El Ninos by ERSST V4 - March 41,58,73,83,92,98 were all wet

6) Double El Ninos - wetter than first year El Ninos in March

7) Non-Modoki

8) Trends in El Nino for snow in Oct-Feb, rain in July-Feb, high temps in July-Feb are closer to the nine snowiest Marches in El Ninos than the remaining El Ninos.

9) El Nino springs are statistically different than non-El Nino springs for moisture - wetter

10) MJO may get to phase 1 in March

11) I have a test that looks at "second snowiest month" and looks for signals for those years compared to others. We match best with March as our second snowiest month. January was the next best match.

 

CON:

-----

1) We've had 8 dry Marches in a row in Albuquerque (2008-2015). Based on the number of wet Marches from 1931-2015, this should happen once a century (0.56^8, or 1% Odds). Since the 8 dry Marches are already in, it probably wouldn't be hard to get to nine. From 1931-2015, no individual month has been drier than it's normal more than 12 years in a row...so the dry March era will end sometime soon, whether it is this year or not. The 1950s did have many dry, snowless Marches and the oceans are similar to the 1950s.

2) March is the only month here that is rapidly warming - which implies long-term drying

3) Springs are drier in Albuquerque than they used to be statistically

4) 1950-1959 - 8/10 dry Marches, although not consecutively

5) Wet/Snowy Marches follow wet Octobers

6) December had 7.2" snow - likely snowiest month. In El Nino, the snowiest month averages 7.2" snow.

7) El Nino not weakneing quickly - usually weakens for wet Marches. In March 1940/2015 it strengthed and March was dry.

8) Wet Monsoons tend to slightly disfavor wet Marches - we had a wet monsoon.

[jdrenken]

The SOI has dropped 35.9 points in the past 4 days.  Look for a wild beginning of March!

[Portastorm]

So the average number of days in Austin where the temperature dips below freezing is 19.  To date we have had one day where the temp hit 31.

[bubba hotep]

I've gone back and looked at 58 and there were a couple of stretches in February and March that had cold and even some snow (February).

On the lighter side, I'd love to compare the long range climatic models with some random map generator.

 

 

The GFS is probably no better than the Farmers Almanac once you get out past 10 days  

 

You know what gives me the sad? Even with it being that bad, it hasn't shown a fantasy snow storm for DFW in ages :crymeariver:

[raindancewx]

Have you all had a long era of dry Marches in North/West TX? Take a look at your long period March precip averages, and then see if you've had a streak of 5+ consecutive dry Marches. When we get a string of six Februarys, 12 Novembers, or whatever month that are dry in a row, the results in the "break" month, when we finally get wet are pretty impressive, usually doubling the long term average of the month that had been dry. If you figure out the share of wet (anything above mean) years of all years, you can multiply the odds of dry years together to figure out the odds of your dry string - the rarer the territory the more likely it is to break.

 

In Albuquerque, we've had quite long Feb and May dry streaks broken in the past two years. After the current March streak - easily the longest - June, April and August are the longest active "dry streaks" here. We've only had 1.4" precip in eight (!) Marches. We're due. If you look at 30-year running means for March, whether you use the lowest 30-year mean (0.42) or the highest (0.62) we need the next 22 Marches to average 0.65"-0.75" per year to reach any 30-year mean since the 1930s.

[DFWWeather]

Notice today how the GFS and ECMWF operation models are catching on to the near 40 point drop in the SOI earlier this week and perhaps MJO entering phase 8. Both showing a charge of Arctic air down the Plains toward the end of February and first part of March. H5 ensemble 8 to 10 day means of the ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian all support this idea too. Perhaps winter's last hoorah hasn't been sung? It's funny, it turns out for DFW this winter is following more 1931-32 than spring, summer and fall where it resembled more 1957-58.

[bubba hotep]

 

 

The GFS is probably no better than the Farmers Almanac once you get out past 10 days

 

You know what gives me the sad? Even with it being that bad, it hasn't shown a fantasy snow storm for DFW in ages :crymeariver:

 

Finally! Lock it up! Winter Hype is Back!

 

[wxmx]

Finally! Lock it up! Winter Hype is Back!

 

 

  Let's see how many runs does it last...current streak is 2 with the 18z run

[raindancewx]

Maybe I missed it somewhere but the Jamstec still likes us for wetness in Spring.

 

[bubba hotep]

Have you all had a long era of dry Marches in North/West TX? Take a look at your long period March precip averages, and then see if you've had a streak of 5+ consecutive dry Marches. When we get a string of six Februarys, 12 Novembers, or whatever month that are dry in a row, the results in the "break" month, when we finally get wet are pretty impressive, usually doubling the long term average of the month that had been dry. If you figure out the share of wet (anything above mean) years of all years, you can multiply the odds of dry years together to figure out the odds of your dry string - the rarer the territory the more likely it is to break.

 

In Albuquerque, we've had quite long Feb and May dry streaks broken in the past two years. After the current March streak - easily the longest - June, April and August are the longest active "dry streaks" here. We've only had 1.4" precip in eight (!) Marches. We're due. If you look at 30-year running means for March, whether you use the lowest 30-year mean (0.42) or the highest (0.62) we need the next 22 Marches to average 0.65"-0.75" per year to reach any 30-year mean since the 1930s.

 

Last March was above avg for most of N. and E. Texas but it has been dry for a while now 

 

[bubba hotep]

Notice today how the GFS and ECMWF operation models are catching on to the near 40 point drop in the SOI earlier this week and perhaps MJO entering phase 8. Both showing a charge of Arctic air down the Plains toward the end of February and first part of March. H5 ensemble 8 to 10 day means of the ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian all support this idea too. Perhaps winter's last hoorah hasn't been sung? It's funny, it turns out for DFW this winter is following more 1931-32 than spring, summer and fall where it resembled more 1957-58.

 

I'm not sure what to make of things right now, the models have been picking up on the MJO in the longer range but then it's influence seems to fade as you roll forward to reality. The nino background state appears to be overwhelming everything, even with a decent pulse of convection in the Pacific. This current Phase 5 looked like this:

 

 

Then you look at the Nino Phase 5 composite and you get this:

 

The GoA low is the only thing that seems to match up. Granted, the data set for MJO waves during El Ninos is limited, esp. considering that east based ninos don't typically see much MJO action, so that limits the data set even more. If I had to bet, I would go with the long range modeled cold shot/winter weather period fading as the time frame rolls closer. Or maybe not, maybe the atmosphere will finally feel the MJO! 

[bubba hotep]

  Let's see how many runs does it last...current streak is 2 with the 18z run

18z has DFW flirt with the upper teens and probably drops 3"+ of snow at DFW with higher totals as you head east... 18z is colder but 12z had the cold hang around longer. Now 00z will be in the 70s! 

[bubba hotep]

The 12z GFS came in pretty juiced up for this upcoming rain with 1.5-2" for all of the DFW area. The 00z Euro EPS had a pretty strong wet cluster with about 30% of the members showing 2"+ at DFW. 

[raindancewx]

Weatherbell, Accuweather, NOAA, Commodity WX, not to mention the CFS, CanSips, Jamstec models all seem to buy cold/and or wet for Spring 2016 in the SW. Hope it happens...or we're all wrong.

 

I don't buy huge cold for New Mexico in March, but probably 0-2F below normal. 

 

Mountain snowpack here would have been destroyed completely in a normal winter given our Feb heatwave, but with so much snow in Oct-Dec, the numbers are still decent at elevations >8000 feet. Even with Santa Fe (7000 feet) in the 60s.

 

The ridge of death is starting to get it's ass handed to it by the changing El Nino/MJO conditions. My idea this winter was the East would have Jan 20-Feb 20 for winter/big snows, and then it would flip back to us. Looks like it is starting right about on schedule

[bubba hotep]

We just need that wave to dig a bit more to get something interesting into N. Texas. Just imagine if we had some decent cold air in place...

ETA: 12z Euro EPS has 3 or 4 members that try to pull it off!

ETA 2: 12z Para Euro is a soaking with some backside magic along the Red River

[aggiegeog]

If only there was some semblance of cold over the N Plains. As itnis we will.see heavy rain over the next few days ending as a cold rain with some snow near the Red River West of I-35 Tuesday night into Wednesday. Wednesday will be the coldest day in a good while with highs in the low 50s and mid 40s over NE TX.

[bubba hotep]

If only there was some semblance of cold over the N Plains. As itnis we will.see heavy rain over the next few days ending as a cold rain with some snow near the Red River West of I-35 Tuesday night into Wednesday. Wednesday will be the coldest day in a good while with highs in the low 50s and mid 40s over NE TX.

 

It really is a shame that there isn't more cold air for this system to work with, it would have been a blockbuster! The 12z Euro drags "snow" across the northern portion of DFW. Pretty textbook with surface temps dropping into the mid-30s and the freezing level at least down to 925mb as the system wraps up, someone could actually see a period of heavy wet snow with this. 

[bubba hotep]

12z Para Euro drops 1 - 3" of snow along 380 and areas north with areas to the south in Denton and Collin counties getting trace - 1" 

 

12z Euro EPS supports a blend of the Para and Op... The 15z SREF is also starting to get in on the action. Wonder if the NAM or GFS will start picking this up with the 18z runs? 

[aggiegeog]

Trends are def in our favor. If we can get below 38 I think we can get something. Looks like a late day/overnight event so that helps with less radiation.

[cheese007]

What timeframe would this all be in?

[aggiegeog]

What timeframe would this all be in?

Rain starts later today, cold comes Tuesday. Any chance of snow would be late Tuesday for N TX and maybe into Wednesday morning over NE TX.

[bubba hotep]

Snow!? SREF continues to trend in our direction 

 

[bubba hotep]

Thunder! I seriously can't remember the last time I heard that at night.

[aggiegeog]

Had about .8" of rain last night. Expecting showers today then 3 or so inches tomorrow. I am watching how much this storm deepens closely as it will be a close call on if N and NE TX can cool dynamically enough for snow late tomorrow.

[bubba hotep]

That would be hilarious if that verified, Hwy 75 Special!