Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[bubba hotep]

Looks like next week could be entertaining with multiple rounds of storms spread out over several days.

[bubba hotep]

This is starting to remind me of last year a blend of the guidance points to 5-7"+ of rain for areas of N. Texas over the next couple of weeks. Also, It looks like far NE Texas, northern Louisiana & Arkansas could be in for some flooding from this pattern.

[raindancewx]

[bubba hotep]

Just the avg old -5 std dropping into Mexico! We should see some springtime storms across DFW Monday and Tuesday

[bubba hotep]

The Para Euro weeklies run through mid April and look wet the whole time. Also, DFW hasn't hit 80 yet this year and the weeklies sugest that might be hard to come by in March. Anyone know the latest first 80 degree day at DFW? I might have to dust off my python skills and dig into the data.

[raindancewx]

The Para Euro weeklies run through mid April and look wet the whole time. Also, DFW hasn't hit 80 yet this year and the weeklies sugest that might be hard to come by in March. Anyone know the latest first 80 degree day at DFW? I might have to dust off my python skills and dig into the data.

 

You can use "nowdata" (google it) to find first/last dates for an event. Hoping the GFS is right/underdone for us -

 

 

 

Will be very interesting to see which models are right about the MJO in the coming days -

This is yet another independent entity calling for a wet March - 

Everyone is either going to be very right or very wrong.

[jdrenken]

Food for thought...this forecast was made on February 15th for next week's precipitable water amounts via the #rrwt, or Recurring Rossby Wave Train, found here..

[Quixotic1]

The Para Euro weeklies run through mid April and look wet the whole time. Also, DFW hasn't hit 80 yet this year and the weeklies sugest that might be hard to come by in March. Anyone know the latest first 80 degree day at DFW? I might have to dust off my python skills and dig into the data.

1968 would be a good bet at April 13th.

[bubba hotep]

00z GFS goes all in, 5-7"+ rain for most of the DFW area 

[bubba hotep]

Really looking forward to the rain but I would rather not have to replace my fence again this year!

 

[Roy]

NAM utterly out to lunch with virtually no QPF. Wacky.

[1900hurricane]

Without looking at it and just guessing, the NAM might be struggling with the EML. Its BMJ convective scheme sometimes doesn't convect when a notable one is present.

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[bubba hotep]

Looks like things will get active starting this weekend as a couple of impulses kick out as a big system digs into the SW. We could see some impressive rain totals for areas E. of I35.

Things have slowed down but the models did a good job of picking up on the pattern and potential for heavy rain. It is looking like 4-7"+ for areas of N. Texas.

[bubba hotep]

Pretty good agreement b/w 12z Euro, Para Euro, and GFS for 5-7" across the DFW area! 

 

ETA: Latest thinking from FWD:

 

[Quixotic1]

Forget Winter 15-16. Let's go spring 2016!

[raindancewx]

NAM says I get snow after two weeks of 70+ temps. GFS says...maybe. Will be interesting to see what happens late Tuesday night.

 

[jm1220]

12z Euro increased the rain that makes it back here to I-35, has a 5"+ swath from DFW down to south of Austin. We need the rain, so hopefully it materializes. 

[bubba hotep]

Holding out hope that this line can clip us here in Collin County, the winds are kicking outside right now under mostly clear skies

 

[Quixotic1]

Not much here but light rain. Hoping tonight's activity doesn't work the atmosphere over too much.

[bubba hotep]

Not much here but light rain. Hoping tonight's activity doesn't work the atmosphere over too much.

 

Yep, those storms are staying just NW of here. The HRRR is pretty much locked in on an overnight line moving through DFW in the early morning hours. That isn't always a bummer, could leave some boundaries around and the subsidence could give us some cloud free full sun hours during the day. Always a dicey situation but some of the more photogenic cells have fired on days like that, in recent memory. However, early March full sun isn't as powerful as May full sun. 

[bubba hotep]

This is just south of Dallas County for later on today, it appears to be along a boundary from this mornings storms. Always a good bit of uncertainty as to where these features will be and hopefully it stays south of the more populated areas of DFW.  

[bubba hotep]

I wonder if FWD will send out a morning update or wait until later. Boundary locations and possibly an unusual dry line moving in from the south won't be resolved until later but could cause havoc across DFW.

[Quixotic1]

I wonder if FWD will send out a morning update or wait until later. Boundary locations and possibly an unusual dry line moving in from the south won't be resolved until later but could cause havoc across DFW.

 

Saw that the DP was down to around 54 at DFW.  Will be interesting to see if we can get a surge of moisture in here.

[bubba hotep]

Starting to see the sun peaking through here in downtown

[cheese007]

Sun peaking out in Richardson

[jhamps10]

Bright sunshine in downtown ft worth.. Saw one cell west of Waco trying to develop but we will see.. We did get worked over well this morning but I wouldn't put the guards down just yet with how quick it cleared here

[cheese007]

Latest D1 removes the DFW area fromy the slight risk, and removes us from the tornado threat area entirely

[Roy]

Pretty decent damage in my development of north Fort Worth from this morning. Lots of uprooted trees (small), new house being built (framing stage) blew down, fences down etc. It was very windy in Keller at my school. Hard to open the outside door.

[bubba hotep]

Couple of decent cells SW of DFW but they seem to moving away from better conditions. Moisture is returning to DFW but not much instability per latest SPC meso analysis. Also, don't see any obvious boundaries lingering around.

[jm1220]

One thing's for sure-the atmosphere has plenty of juice down here. Dewpoints are in the upper 60s, with highs in the lower 80s today. Feels tropical outside. The sun has also been out all day-at times it was mostly clear.