BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It has to be snowing 1"+/hr right now and the main show has yet to start! :snowing: That band has to be much higher than 1" per hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Northwestern Erie county had 3-5" before this band even moved through as of 7 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 And notice how anemic the radar returns are, vs. snowfall rate....that bodes well for accums....gonna be a lot of snowing under the radar, and if the snow growth can stay up there, we will maximize ratios....17-22:1 ratios...but if we go to sugar snow....cut those ratios at least in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Visibility has been under 1/2 mile for few hours here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Wicked 120kt Jet Streak at H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm starting to think areas (by looking at radar intensities and trends) that areas in and around N. Falls/BUF may reach a foot before evening...that LES/Convergence band off Erie means business!!! I've gotta think it is pumping out 3"/hr. in Niagara Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 LEK, as a meteorologist can you explain the difference between an inverted trough and a Norlun trough? After fropa tonight the cold front is supposed to slow down to our north and move back toward us (as it get captured by the closed mid level circulation?) and become the focus of heavy snowfall, somewhere over central New York. I'm assuming that this is the trough extending from the rapidly deepening coastal storm. Does it qualify as a Norlun trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm starting to think areas (by looking at radar intensities and trends) that areas in and around N. Falls/BUF may reach a foot before evening...that LES/Convergence band off Erie means business!!! I've gotta think it is pumping out 3"/hr. in Niagara Co. PECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY905 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015NYZ001-002-010-011-141500-ERIE NY-GENESEE NY-NIAGARA NY-ORLEANS NY-905 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015...HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THIS MORNING...* A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3INCHES PER HOUR...AND VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO AT TIMES WILL CONTINUEACROSS GRAND ISLAND...THE TONAWANDAS...AMHERST AND CLARENCETHROUGH 10 AM.* THIS BAND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INTO THE CITY OF BUFFALO...DEPEW...CHEEKTOWAGA...AND LANCASTER THROUGH 11 AM.THIS INCLUDES THE NEW YORK THRUWAY BETWEEN EXITS 49 AND 54.DRIVING WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT WITH SNOWCOVERED ROADS AND VERY POOR VISIBILITY. IF TRAVELING ACROSS THE AREAALLOW FOR PLENTY OF EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...BE PREPARED BY HAVING AN EMERGENCY KIT...EXTRABLANKETS AND WARM CLOTHING IN THE EVENT THAT YOUR VEHICLE HASMECHANICAL PROBLEMS OR GETS STUCK. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE A FULLY CHARGEDCELL PHONE.LAT...LON 4303 7902 4326 7837 4310 7812 4281 7887 4282 7888 4285 7887 4287 7891 4294 7892 4296 7899 4300 7903 4302 7903$$TMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Northwestern Erie county had 3-5" before this band even moved through as of 7 AM. Well i woke up to almost 2" of new snow so i'm not complaining!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I was in that band briefly and can verify 2-3"/hr rates. Eyeballing 3" here already. Band actually shifted just north of me and intensity has dropped off at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 Really, the differences are a moot point....but in this case, we will have an arctic front essentially in the vicinity of where norluns typically develop during cyclogenisis off the Delmarva...the lower and midlevel circulations, with adequate tilt, will be enhanced by these features, leading to some very localized (narrow) areas of extreme snowfall rates...and in this case, snowgrowth should be maximized throughout the column...down to very low levels. Most models have this feature crawl through W/C NY and then retrograde a bit, and then slow down a bit as it becomes parallel to the increasingly stacked flow....if this feature can tap into some low level convergence over L. Ontario, as it settles back to the west/southwest, we should see some pretty insane rates S/SE of Ontario for a 6-12 hour period. It is this feature that will generate the most snow for this event, outside of the ongoing pre-event LES in Niagara Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Really, the differences are a moot point....but in this case, we will have an arctic front essentially in the vicinity of where norluns typically develop during cyclogenisis off the Delmarva...the lower and midlevel circulations, with adequate tilt, will be enhanced by these features, leading to some very localized (narrow) areas of extreme snowfall rates...and in this case, snowgrowth should be maximized throughout the column...down to very low levels. Most models have this feature crawl through W/C NY and then retrograde a bit, and then slow down a bit as it becomes parallel to the increasingly stacked flow....if this feature can tap into some low level convergence over L. Ontario, as it settles back to the west/southwest, we should see some pretty insane rates S/SE of Ontario for a 6-12 hour period. It is this feature that will generate the most snow for this event, outside of the ongoing pre-event LES in Niagara Co. Is 98% frozen lake erie really adding that much moisture to this band? I never expected a foot of snow for NW erie county out of this. The place that measured 5+ inches as of 7 am must be over 10 by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 BTW, the ongoing stuff north of Buffalo, is a testament to the geography of the Great Lakes, which, IMO, is often WAY under considered/appreciated. L. Erie is producing very little moisture....but the ambient llv moisture is sufficient to interact with the favorable frictional differences induced by the geography of L. Erie. Basically, the geography helps to generate additional lift, which then focuses that lift....similar to summertime thunderstorms that begin over elevated areas, which then "rob" the lifting energy from surrounding areas...ie positive feedback for the localized convergence zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 LOL, BuffaloWeather!! I anticipated your question!!! (see above ^^) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 BTW, the ongoing stuff north of Buffalo, is a testament to the geography of the Great Lakes, which, IMO, is often WAY under considered/appreciated. L. Erie is producing very little moisture....but the ambient llv moisture is sufficient to interact with the favorable frictional differences induced by the geography of L. Erie. Basically, the geography helps to generate additional lift, which then focuses that lift....similar to summertime thunderstorms that begin over elevated areas, which then "rob" the lifting energy from surrounding areas...ie positive feedback for the localized convergence zone. Awesome Thanks! 2.6" on the board through 9:30 am here. Must have been some decent bands that moved through overnight. Just cleared it off and ready for round 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Traffic cams look amazing. Should have stayed another day. http://www.thruway.ny.gov/travelers/map/text/twytextcameras.cgi?region=BUI90B Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 A Bay has been getting crushed as well over the past few hours. Oh and This looks enticing! Nam @ 84 but WOW, just extrapolate a bit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Visibility under 100 yards with calm wind. Cha ching!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 Visibility under 100 yards with calm wind. Cha ching!!! IMG_0127.JPG Awesome! Good to see the flake size is stout!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 O RADAR SHOWING A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY WHICH IS PRODUCING A BAND OF VERY HEAVY SNOW...WITH SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR. UNTIL THE FRONT REACHES THE AREA TOWARD NOON THIS BAND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Been snowing for hours here but it's light and the flakes are like powdered sugar. However, the NAM says the main show for CNY away from the lakes will only start in the midafternoon. Both it and the GFS have a jackpot around Cortland with 6-10 here, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Heavy snow 2-3 per hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Out driving in it got great video Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 One of those relatively rare situations when the Lake Erie band is producing well into western Monroe. We've had a steady moderate snow (borderline heavy at times) with large flakes for the last couple of hours at least. Looks like about 2" on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 New warning for us has increased snowfall totals to 8-14 inches. NYZ001>006-142300-/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-150215T2300Z/NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO948 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY...* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA...ORLEANS...MONROE...WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA...AND OSWEGO COUNTIES.* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. FIRST BURST OF HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY MORE PERIODS OF SNOW AND SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.* HAZARDS...SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...AND EXTREME COLD.* ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 14 INCHES.* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.* VISIBILITIES...NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.* WIND CHILLS...AS LOW AS 30 BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.* IMPACTS...* A DANGEROUS COMBINATION OF WINTRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND.* THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND SNOW WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SOME ROADS IN OPEN RURAL AREAS AND ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE MAY BECOME NEARLY IMPASSABLE. TRAVEL WILL BECOME VERY DIFFICULT WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TOWARDS ZERO AT TIMES. BE PREPARED TO ENCOUNTER WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.* THE COMBINATION OF EXTREMELY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY AND POSSIBLY LIFE THREATENING WIND CHILL VALUES. FROSTBITE TIMES WILL ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF JUST MINUTES. LIMIT YOUR TIME OUTSIDE AND DRESS IN MULTIPLE LAYERS THIS WEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Man, I gotta come up there and experience something like this at one point or another. Enjoy the snow guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 That area just north of Dunkirk on I90 is just getting slammed right now. Keep the pics and vids coming guys!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Picture of my deck this morning. Maybe by tomorrow morning the snow will be up to the top of the railing. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The radar around Erie looks pretty amazing right now. There is a very nice area of deep moist convergence right along the lake shore where the heaviest echoes are located. The band of snow looks like it'll remain parked over the area for another hour or two before the arctic boundary swings through. Nice lift will provide the area with decent dedritic growth which would maximize ratios within the band. Someone would probably walk away with 10" alone. Nice setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Congrats on the snow out in WNY!! Very awesome. Not much going on here, just a 1/2" earlier. Twiddling thumbs and waiting...unreal how Lake Erie is behaving even though frozen. LEK's explanation makes a lot of sense. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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