Syrmax Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Thanks! You were right about phoenix schools closing today. Looks like they threw in the towel, having only used 2 of 5 days so far and a holiday week upcoming. I had similar ideas but too busy at work. Wanted to get some snow shoeing in, maybe tomorrow. I at least had my kid out helping snowblow in -5 temps this morning. Good for the character building. And there was no wind...that part of the forecast was a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 I love your analysis lek please post more!! Thanks! Been hit and miss with posting as of late, but should be good to go to post substantially more now! Going past this upcoming event...I REALLY like the D+5 to D+9 timeframe for the potential LES, especially for CNY...but, I never totally give up on Erie (even frozen)....upstream moisture, and added frictional convergence (along with heat flux off ice in a sufficiently cold airmass and the previously noted orographic components) can still generate decent LES out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 You were right about phoenix schools closing today. Looks like they threw in the towel, having only used 2 of 5 days so far and a holiday week upcoming. I had similar ideas but too busy at work. Wanted to get some snow shoeing in, maybe tomorrow. I at least had my kid out helping snowblow in -5 temps this morning. Good for the character building. And there was no wind...that part of the forecast was a bust. My kids were psyched to have off. I need to do the same with my son and snowblowing. Lots of chances for that. Lake effect looks tasty on the extended EURO maps for next Thursday and Friday. It's going to get real deep around here by next weekend, Curious if newest NAM continues with the CNY jackpot. GFS bumped up some too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Eichorn and Longley discussion mention up to a foot from Syracuse North and east(Newschannel 9) by noon Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Thanks! Been hit and miss with posting as of late, but should be good to go to post substantially more now! Going past this upcoming event...I REALLY like the D+5 to D+9 timeframe for the potential LES, especially for CNY...but, I never totally give up on Erie (even frozen)....upstream moisture, and added frictional convergence (along with heat flux off ice in a sufficiently cold airmass and the previously noted orographic components) can still generate decent LES out that way. Glad to know that I'm not the only one really optimistic about the potential. At least IMO one of the best setups for eastern Oswego county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Good shot of L. Ontario ice coverage today. Oneida Lake and northeast end of Lake Erie show as completely iced over on this image. Cayuga and Seneca Lakes really stand out with a lot of open water - deep deep lakes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looks like the Clipper's snow shield is approaching WNY now. This should be good tomorrow. Back in the day I would whip out some skew-T's and BUFKIT screen shots but I'm way out of practice. Enjoy the input from the few mets we have in this forum. I think KBGM might be underplaying this a touch but their CWA encompasses some less snowy areas, like PA, so from a general standpoint, 2-5" probably makes sense as a general expectation, which is maybe an advisory at best around here. Were it KBOX, histrionic Blizz Warnings would be flying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 My forecast contest entry for Storm #5: CAR: 16 BGR: 26 PWM: 18.5 CON: 13.5 BTV: 3.5 BOS: 10.8 HYA: 8 ORH: 9.5 PVD: 6.3 BDR: 2.5 BDL: 2.3 ALB: 2.8 BGM: 6.3 ISP: 3.5 JFK: 2.3 ABE: 2.8 MDT: 1.5 PHL: 1.3 ACY: T EWR: 3.8 BWI: T IAD: 0 DCA: 0 SBY: 0 RIC: 0 ORF: 0 RDU: 0 Comments: Another day, another psuedo Blizzard for KBOX. Is there no shame left? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 what is a norlun trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 My forecast contest entry for Storm #5: CAR: 16 BGR: 26 PWM: 18.5 CON: 13.5 BTV: 3.5 BOS: 10.8 HYA: 8 ORH: 9.5 PVD: 6.3 BDR: 2.5 BDL: 2.3 ALB: 2.8 BGM: 6.3 ISP: 3.5 JFK: 2.3 ABE: 2.8 MDT: 1.5 PHL: 1.3 ACY: T EWR: 3.8 BWI: T IAD: 0 DCA: 0 SBY: 0 RIC: 0 ORF: 0 RDU: 0 Comments: Another day, another psuedo Blizzard for KBOX. Is there no shame left? No ITH prediction? ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Anyone have thoughts for weekend totals Including the NY Golden Snow Shovel cities'? These are mine: Erie: 3.5" Buf: 4.5" Roch: 6" Syr: 8" Bing: 5" Albany: 2" Highest totals somewhere around Fulton: 9.5" It's gonna be hell to measure. And as the king said, on Sunday it might look like its snowing like heck, it just wont accumulate. Like I saw a couple nights ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'll throw Ithaca in for good measure: 2", sorry, its all I can see. It comes with Squall line. If the wind was closer to 320 you could get help from YOUR lake, but it looks like a 300 wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I hope we can rally and have some good conversations about this difficult fcst. I know I have alot to learn about these type of events. Inverted, Norlun, Ice cover, strong winds, strong upper level Low, bombogenesis off of NJ coast. Who knows!!!! LOL. NWS out of Buf has dropped the (some areas over 12") in their WSW package for Niagara - Oswego. They also cut thier maps back a lot on the graphic depiction. I'll see if I can post it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This should be the latest map produced by NWS for WNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'd take that map. It would be 10-14 for my backyard, extended into extreme northern Onondaga County...I think it'll be a touch under that though. I think you guys along the lake out towards ROC will get 6" from LES plus whatever the Clipper deposits... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Where is Clay in relation to Syracuse? If memory serves, it is just NE of Syracuse? Is that close to the mall? I used to live in Oswego. Oswego isn't as snowy as it's reputation suggests. Hannibal and Fulton ARE!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 00Z GFS snowfall: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Where is Clay in relation to Syracuse? If memory serves, it is just NE of Syracuse? Is that close to the mall? I used to live in Oswego. Oswego isn't as snowy as it's reputation suggests. Hannibal and Fulton ARE!!! Clay is North of SYR by several miles, I'm in the northern part of the town, almost in Phoenix, Oswego County. So I get to choose my snowfall predictions from KBUF or KBGM. LOL. I am north of the Carousel Mall, now called Destiny USA. there's a smaller mall near me, Great Northern. From my place and north is where the lake effect is more regular. Oswego isn't as snowy most of the time as areas just inland by even a few miles. I used to work at the nuclear complex in Oswego and would drive through some interesting weather on the way. Definitely the friction of land and lifting effect it creates, causes more snow even a mile or two in from the lake as opposed to right on the lake shore. Did that gig for a decade so I have a really good feel for it. Although, there were some days at work where you would get 18-24" of snow during an 8 hour day at work. Happens once or twice a year around Oswego, even right on the lake. Impressive stuff, and I sorta miss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Just reviewed an enhanced view of the water vapor Satellite imagery. And it isn't a great way to fcst, but OMG! That Upper LOW means business. And it is gaining moisture too. From where, I dont know? Maybe from the Upper Lakes. But from that imagery, I gotta think this thing will provide us with some fun stuff for Saturday afternoon. The question is, will that inverted trough and the lake enhancement/ lake effect, give us a big snowstorm come Saturday nite? For that, I have no answer, but I like the dynamic nature of the low. I hate the ice cover. I like the moisture feed and inverted trough from the East Coast bomb. Somebody gets a good thump me thinks. If I had to guess, it is the usuall suspects, Hannibal through Fulton. And maybe Hilton and Brockport. If it gets into the Rochester and Syracuse area, that is the BIG Q! I'm more hopeful than I have been. But still surprised by the breadth of the Winter Storm Warnings Buffalo dropped. I think they just might regret at least a few of those counties. For example: Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Ontario, Livingston and Erie. If anyone meets the criteria, it will be Wayne, N. Cayuga and Oswego. on the west end: Chataqua Ridge region. But not anywhere in mid or north Erie. Very, VERY, LOW Confidence Fcst. If i was the one who dropped the WSW, I would of put the confidence at LOW. But they didn't have that measure in the package. Odd how they pick and choose which qualities they chose to measure for each storm. It should be consistent in my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Just reviewed an enhanced view of the water vapor Satellite imagery. And it isn't a great way to fcst, but OMG! That Upper LOW means business. And it is gaining moisture too. From where, I dont know? Maybe from the Upper Lakes. But from that imagery, I gotta think this thing will provide us with some fun stuff for Saturday afternoon. The question is, will that inverted trough and the lake enhancement/ lake effect, give us a big snowstorm come Saturday nite? For that, I have no answer, but I like the dynamic nature of the low. I hate the ice cover. I like the moisture feed and inverted trough from the East Coast bomb. Somebody gets a good thump me thinks. If I had to guess, it is the usuall suspects, Hannibal through Fulton. And maybe Hilton and Brockport. If it gets into the Rochester and Syracuse area, that is the BIG Q! I'm more hopeful than I have been. But still surprised by the breadth of the Winter Storm Warnings Buffalo dropped. I think they just might regret at least a few of those counties. For example: Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Ontario, Livingston and Erie. If anyone meets the criteria, it will be Wayne, N. Cayuga and Oswego. on the west end: Chataqua Ridge region. But not anywhere in mid or north Erie. Very, VERY, LOW Confidence Fcst. If i was the one who dropped the WSW, I would of put the confidence at LOW. But they didn't have that measure in the package. Odd how they pick and choose which qualities they chose to measure for each storm. It should be consistent in my opinion Yeah the WV imagery is gonna be real fun to watch as this thing explodes. Over the last few hours the increase in moisture looks to be from lift along the frontal systems/PVA downstream of the trough axis, gonna be a lot more where that came from. I hope this can over perform somewhere, be it from stationary inverted trough banding or lake enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Already 1.5" down, let the fun begin.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Snowing here, too. The temperature has risen from a low of -8 to +7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 You thinking Hills South of SYR jackpotting? I'm not gung ho on this squall line producing all that much sat afternoon. I can believe it'll be impressive from a chaos standpoint but usually they aren't long lived enough to drop more than 1-3". I'm also leery of LES production in such a strong CAA environment. Low tops, lake inversion dropping, drying air, smells like long duration with sub notch dendrites. I'll take it but thinking 4-7" looks reasonable for most of us. But I'll hold out weenie hope for that NAM qpf max to somehow nail us! 4-7"?? Your not serious are you? We got that with that band the other day that lasted for 3 hrs? KBUF up their totals to 8-14", which means nothing, lol, as I still think they're too low at least for where I am! Keep forgetting I'm a bit North by say 15 miles or so, so that can make all the difference in the world by a LE stand point but not Synoptic which is what this is, at least initially, but I guess we'll see. I'm all in on this one especially considering this system is closed already at most levels except at H5 which is next later on this afternoon! I'm pleasantly optimistic that someone in the immediate CNY area gets absolutely crushed. Don't know where but someone is going to just as LEK said, " there will be totals in and around the area that equal that of KBOS" and I firmly believe this! A few maps that convince me otherwise: H7 H7 6 hrs later, notice the omega directly over CNY did not move?? H5 IDK, I absolutely love what I see! A stacked low directly to our SE, almost negatively tilted which actually may be, with all sorts of LE from the initial track the slp takes, directly over LO, which should just enhance the already cyclonic flow even more so before she starts to redevelop somewhere South of LI somewhere. The die has been cast so now we wait and see, lol! Good luck to all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Clay is North of SYR by several miles, I'm in the northern part of the town, almost in Phoenix, Oswego County. So I get to choose my snowfall predictions from KBUF or KBGM. LOL. I am north of the Carousel Mall, now called Destiny USA. there's a smaller mall near me, Great Northern. From my place and north is where the lake effect is more regular. Oswego isn't as snowy most of the time as areas just inland by even a few miles. I used to work at the nuclear complex in Oswego and would drive through some interesting weather on the way. Definitely the friction of land and lifting effect it creates, causes more snow even a mile or two in from the lake as opposed to right on the lake shore. Did that gig for a decade so I have a really good feel for it. Although, there were some days at work where you would get 18-24" of snow during an 8 hour day at work. Happens once or twice a year around Oswego, even right on the lake. Impressive stuff, and I sorta miss it. Went to Suny Oswego and when we used to get a 280 flow in Oswego proper we'd run to the roof of the MET building just watch as the band dropped copious amounts of snow in such short periods of time that sometimes was mind boggling! I'm sure KBUF can attest to such totals. Very Impressive to say the least but do they get hit often, nah not really, due mostly to their proximity to the immediate coast line as they are much more subjective to small oscillations of the band whether North or South! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Not to get too far ahead but the Tues Wed fish storm may not be so much a fish storm anymore as the GFS has come West ( what a surprise, lol) substantially and lays down some precip, how much" who knows at this point but the possibility is definitley there to see something substantially bigger than what the Greatest of all time says "The EURO". The Euro actually has Nothing at all but a wave scooting off the Virginia coast but I think that changes with its 12Z run so we'll see. H5 Courtesy WB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 4-7"?? Your not serious are you? We got that with that band the other day that lasted for 3 hrs? KBUF up their totals to 8-14", which means nothing, lol, as I still think they're too low at least for where I am! Keep forgetting I'm a bit North by say 15 miles or so, so that can make all the difference in the world by a LE stand point but not Synoptic which is what this is, at least initially, but I guess we'll see. I'm all in on this one especially considering this system is closed already at most levels except at H5 which is next later on this afternoon! I'm pleasantly optimistic that someone in the immediate CNY area gets absolutely crushed. Don't know where but someone is going to just as LEK said, " there will be totals in and around the area that equal that of KBOS" and I firmly believe this! I said that some areas in CNY (jackpot areas) will DOUBLE what BOS/BOX receives....that may not quite come to fruition, now that the models seem to have been trending BOS higher, but I stand by my initial statement that CNY will have some jackpot totals of nearly a foot and a half by Sun. night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny_tornado_lover Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Can someone help with a finger lakes forecast? I have travel plans this evening. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I said that some areas in CNY (jackpot areas) will DOUBLE what BOS/BOX receives....that may not quite come to fruition, now that the models seem to have been trending BOS higher, but I stand by my initial statement that CNY will have some jackpot totals of nearly a foot and a half by Sun. night. I'm with ya all the way brotha!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny_tornado_lover Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 BGM said in discussion maybe 7-8" in finger lakes?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It has to be snowing 1"+/hr right now and the main show has yet to start! :snowing: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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