Mailman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 UKmet looks good (imby) for the clipper, too. If we can get the clipper low to track through like Charleston, I like my chances for 4" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 More excited for the later weekend storm then this clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 1-2" is probably a good call. It looks like everywhere south of Washington will have mixing issues for a good portion, especially if it keeps creeping north. Not much real cold air to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I just got in and was able to look at the models. With the models trending more and more NW I think NWS will have to up totals for tonight. The latest Hrrr shows several hours of moderate snow after midnight for all of Allegheny county. I am guessing we go up to 1-3 in all areas for overnight. Maybe 2-4 South and East. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Can this over perform...Looks like possibly 2-4 for WPa .. 18Z RAP at 18H snowfall. Attached thumbnail(s) Reduced 26% 861 x 826 (69.7K) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I'll say 1-2 with this storm, then a solid 2-4 chance with the clipper. It hasn't happened this year yet, but storms like the clipper tend to over perform here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Based on radar maps this afternoon, seems like 700 hPa is saturating farther to the north than expected/modeled. Could be a hint that the northward trend is real and 1-3" indeed are possible across Washington-Allegheny-Armstrong-Indiana Cos. tonight. Could be 4" perhaps somewhere in the Greene Co. area. Then as you get farther south toward Morgantown, p-type becomes an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Updated map from PBZ: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Based on radar maps this afternoon, seems like 700 hPa is saturating farther to the north than expected/modeled. Could be a hint that the northward trend is real and 1-3" indeed are possible across Washington-Allegheny-Armstrong-Indiana Cos. tonight. Could be 4" perhaps somewhere in the Greene Co. area. Then as you get farther south toward Morgantown, p-type becomes an issue.According to the NWS, precip type issues are going to be further north than that. My forecast for tonight in Bethel Park is a rain/snow mix in the beginning eventually changing to snow. Calling for an inch. Lack of cold air in place for this system I think is going to give a lot of people a mixed bag of precip. You're going to have to be in just the right spot to get all snow out of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 That's funny blackngold cause weather.com is saying 1-3" for BP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 That's funny blackngold cause weather.com is saying 1-3" for BPWell, I hope they're the one that's right. Lol They do their own forecasting now separate from the NWS. Unfortunately, I've found that the NWS has been right much more often than TWC with their forecasts. Hope this is an exception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Yea seriously.....I said 2 days ago watch this trend north as things always do and give us slop.....someone said nah-it's a i95 special-now here we are! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Local on the 8s on the Weather Channel just said 3-5" overnight. Heh. We'll see about that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Looking good for Sunday... Reduced 20% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 According to the NWS, precip type issues are going to be further north than that. My forecast for tonight in Bethel Park is a rain/snow mix in the beginning eventually changing to snow. Calling for an inch. Lack of cold air in place for this system I think is going to give a lot of people a mixed bag of precip. You're going to have to be in just the right spot to get all snow out of this one. I have much respect for the NWS. Looking at the syncopic set-up and current conditions, though, suggest to me SW PA may get a snowier outcome. Consider that the ~5:51 p.m. KPIT temperature/dew point were 33F/24F, KAGC 34F/21F, and KAFJ (Washington) 34F/25F. These temp/dew point pairs suggest to me that some evaporational cooling should occur to get the air temperature < 32F. Based on this, I am thinking that the "jackpot" should occur near the Washington/Greene Co. border. Near Waynesburg and on south look to have p-type issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 What about Sundays storm. ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I have much respect for the NWS. Looking at the syncopic set-up and current conditions, though, suggest to me SW PA may get a snowier outcome. Consider that the ~5:51 p.m. KPIT temperature/dew point were 33F/24F, KAGC 34F/21F, and KAFJ (Washington) 34F/25F. These temp/dew point pairs suggest to me that some evaporational cooling should occur to get the air temperature < 32F. Based on this, I am thinking that the "jackpot" should occur near the Washington/Greene Co. border. Near Waynesburg and on south look to have p-type issues. What about Sundays storm ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I have much respect for the NWS. Looking at the syncopic set-up and current conditions, though, suggest to me SW PA may get a snowier outcome. Consider that the ~5:51 p.m. KPIT temperature/dew point were 33F/24F, KAGC 34F/21F, and KAFJ (Washington) 34F/25F. These temp/dew point pairs suggest to me that some evaporational cooling should occur to get the air temperature < 32F. Based on this, I am thinking that the "jackpot" should occur near the Washington/Greene Co. border. Near Waynesburg and on south look to have p-type issues.I hope you're right. It would definitely be nice to see the rain/snow line stay south of me for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 What about Sundays storm ??? 18z GFS has the best outcome I have seen so far as its come a little further north than 12z. With that being said, I fully expect this to wobble back and forth until probably 00z tomorrow due to 2 factors, 1 the system won't be fully sampled until tomorrow morning and 2. the strength, track and speed tomorrow system moves out will have actually taken place so what effect it has on the clipper should be much more clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I just don't understand how people are going to get 8-12 inches if I read the models right.?? I never seen one this strong. I know we are not that much. But people to our east It's weird ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Snowing in Bethel Park. Good call by Thunder. No mixing at all so far. Straight snow coming down as of now. Big flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Real light snow in plum area ,,,,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Probably the heaviest snow right now I have seen In a while. 10 mins and everything is covered. It's pretty awesome. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I just don't understand how people are going to get 8-12 inches if I read the models right.?? I never seen one this strong. I know we are not that much. But people to our east It's weird ?? I mean Sunday storm. ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 What location. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Ligonier Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Watching the radar is killing me, snowing about 10 miles to my SE, hoping it fills in soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Snowing at pretty good clip south and east it seems. Quick covering here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Snow is wet enough to stick to everything right now. Nice scene outside tonight, considering this storm was a likely whiff just a couple days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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