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Pittsburgh, PA Thread: Winter '14-'15


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The heaviest snow is now falling with the back end of the batch.

Just passed 2 inches.

As far as Saturday goes, now that the models are showing the storm just missing to our East, they will most likely lock in. If that is the case then we will have to move on to Monday to see if we can catch several inches from the Clipper.

Saturday is most likely going to be a fringe event at best. The usual places to our east will get hammered. I guess our next viable threat at this point will be Monday like you said. Again, nothing to get real excited about but something to keep an eye on anyway.
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Don't you agree these things always tend to tick northwest giving us slop?....maybe for once well be in the bullseye! Lol

Only two days for this thing to tick 100 miles NW. Sorry but this is an I-95 special. I would be worried that they will switch over but precip rates can overcome some of that. We still have 2 months to get one good storm with 2 threats next week. Who knows maybe one will work out.
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For the weekend storm, we are lacking a dome of high pressure to the north/northeast.  Some of PIT's bigger storms had this feature in place.  It helps supply low-level cold air that acts as a ramp for warmer, moister air to flow over (overrunning).  Additionally, 500 hPa flow has "too many" shortwaves in it -- the shortwave that bought today's rain/snow looks to be to the east of shortwave driving Saturday's storm, thus shortening the wavelength between the two.  Waves with shorter wavelengths propagate faster to the east than waves with longer wavelengths.  The faster speed is not allowing the storm to amplify in time to affect PIT as much as areas to the S & E.

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For the weekend storm, we are lacking a dome of high pressure to the north/northeast. Some of PIT's bigger storms had this feature in place. It helps supply low-level cold air that acts as a ramp for warmer, moister air to flow over (overrunning). Additionally, 500 hPa flow has "too many" shortwaves in it -- the shortwave that bought today's rain/snow looks to be to the east of shortwave driving Saturday's storm, thus shortening the wavelength between the two. Waves with shorter wavelengths propagate faster to the east than waves with longer wavelengths. The faster speed is not allowing the storm to amplify in time to affect PIT as much as areas to the S & E.

I would really like your thoughts on the storms next week if you get a chance. I hear there is potentional for a few different threats.
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Eh Canadian looks pretty far North. Still a few days but lets just wait and see how this pans out.

That's my worry with this one, that it tracks a bit to far north. 6z GFS looked even further North. If we get a good track it could be our first shot at warning criteria snowfall but I remain skeptical as of now since I think if the low is as strong as the GFS has with that track we will have the potential for slop issues again...

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Even if this does trend further west, I just don't think there's enough cold air in place for us considering the track of the low. No cold high to the north just makes it more difficult. I still think this will be fringe at best anyway. I'm already looking to that clipper later in the weekend. Clippers usually don't excite me but this one seems to be a little more robust than normal. At least that's how it looks right now. That can change too as we get closer.

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Axis of heaviest snow for Sunday night storm currently projected for N OH and NW PA, extending SE into C PA.  Surface, 850 and 700 hPa lows are tracking too far to the north for PIT to be in the axis of best snow.  However, the shortwave that should produce Sunday night's precip is still over the Pacific Ocean and likely won't come to North America until Friday night, so model forecasts could shift noticeably through Friday night/Saturday morning.

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Axis of heaviest snow for Sunday night storm currently projected for N OH and NW PA, extending SE into C PA.  Surface, 850 and 700 hPa lows are tracking too far to the north for PIT to be in the axis of best snow.  However, the shortwave that should produce Sunday night's precip is still over the Pacific Ocean and likely won't come to North America until Friday night, so model forecasts could shift noticeably through Friday night/Saturday morning.

Just looking at the 18z GFS and NAM, the NAM ( I know at 84 hours) has a track that is pretty favorable for the area. GFS is still a bit to North. I don't have access to the Euro, but hearing its further South, but weaker. If it plays out right this could easily be our biggest storm of the season, although that is not saying much. ;)

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As long as it snows a little on my birthday, I'll be good with January.  As long as I've been alive, I've never seen a serious winter storm occur on my birthday; I can't even remember the last time I saw a few inches.  For now anyway, the pattern remains "less than optimal."  I'd like to see a change in even one of the teleconnections before I get interested in any particular storm.

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I know that winter is not over, but I have to say this winter weather really just plain old sucks. I hope something can come together for a nice winter snow storm but I am not very optimistic. 

 

On a better note - I really enjoy these forums and like what you all put into it here. I dont comment much as I am not very technical with weather knowledge but learn more and more as I read. Keep up the good work here guys.

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Encouraging trends on the models tonight. Looks like a significant NW trend for storm 1, so much so we may see some snow in the air Saturday vs partly cloudy skies. Storm 2 looks to be far enough south now to make it a good track for most of us.

Yes looks good and then next week a few more chances. Still showing a possible larger storm around the Feb 2 time frame for the past several days. My shovel is on the porch waiting to be used.

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Scott Harbaugh threw this out there.

Tonight-tomorrow 0badf74631d0c6f37a4850e365dabdfc.jpg

So basically 1-4 inches for WPa between the 2 systems. That is our areas typical result from these types of systems. Not holding my breath that IMBY we hit the 4 inch mark between the 2. I have a feeling the Sunday system the warm air will make it up into the south hills area and keep us from the higher total.

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People need to just relax and enjoy what we are going to get. It is the weekend coming up and I do not have to work. It looks like most of us will get an inch or snow of snow tonight and another 2-4 on Sunday without any serious driving to worry about or slop issues.  Looks like a fine weekend for snow. If you are looking for a 6-12 inch snowfall you will be disappointed 90% of the time.  :snowwindow:

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Here's your round-up for this week for those interested:

 

Technically Pittsburgh is overdue for an 8-inch storm.  The average is once every two years; it has been five (5) years now coming up this February.

 

Current state of the relevant teleconnections:

  • The -AO is projected to yo-yo in the next week (go sharp positive, then go sharp negative by Feb 1st).  It's only mildly negative right now and doesn't appear sustained, so really not in an ideal state.
  • The +NAO remains positive and is expected to remain there for the foreseeable future.  This means if we are expecting anything major, the blocking is going to have to come from either a massive polar outbreak, coincidentally timed well with precip from the STJ (ala PDII which also had a +NAO), or from a setup low that embeds itself around the 50/50 mark.  The NAO has only been negative once since November: a couple days in December.
  • The +PNA is presently positive, although mildly.  While this is decent enough, it looks to tank here briefly before moving back into a good position along with the other teleconnections around Feb 1st.
  • The MJO is in a fairly mild Phase 7, which is also good.  It looks to be headed for the COD, but I think overall, the MJO has had little effect on this particular winter.  Its status may be of little relevance.
  • The ENSO state is neutral with a lean towards El Nino.  That said, we're actually in a good spot based on historical numbers for both higher snow average and bigger storms.  The other positive outcomes generally occur in either very strong or weak El Ninos, but neutral remains the best overall.  2010 was a strong Nino year, and CFSv.2 predicts movement toward a strong El Nino leading into next winter, subject to change of course.

Based on all that, it makes me think the PNA, NAO, and AO are the driving forces of this winter in terms of who is getting the snow in the East.  According to current predictions, we may see the pattern "reloading" come the beginning of February, which may also be why several models are showing a massive snowstorm just in time for the Super Bowl.

 

Long-range forecasts this winter have been particularly difficult to nail-down, so I'll remain cautiously optimistic about our chances into February.  The fact that these upcoming couple storms have actually trended better may be a good sign after next week.  Also keep in mind the transition periods tend to be "hot spots" for winter storms.

 

While true this winter has been pretty bad overall, well below-average for a good portion of the East, we have some signs of life here.  Again, remain careful about the long-term signals only because we've seen those disappear time and time again, but I really think it looks better now than it has at any other time this year.

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What does that translate to inches? With the lack of blocking and the strength of this storm, this thing has really trended west.

That GFS lcng range looks very promising also.

 

7.5mm = .3" QPF

10mm = .4" QPF

15mm = .6" QPF 

 

Not sure how much mixing is involved on that run but its definitely further NW which I have to assume means warmer.

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