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MetHerb

January 2015 Pattern Discussion

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Good things come to those who wait, (like we had a choice) the Pattern appears loaded with several changes to completely wipe-out most deficits.

 

Ladies and Gents start your engines full speed ahead.

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being discussed like the end of the world. We'll live with it. Like every other winter.

 

I haven't seen weenie suicides over it. But some are acting like it's a 35 degree thaw. It easily may not be.

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Anthony Masiello@antmasiello 9m

9 minutes ago

Basically new ECMWF monthly forecasts hold PNA/-EPO/+NAO pattern into early spring. zzzzzz

We can work with that as the -EPO will keep cold around...but without and blocking to buckle the flow we'd be looking at lots of smaller events. Nickel and dime winter maybe? Hopefully we can get some sort of -NAO that could bring the chance of a larger, slow moving storm. But at least the cold will be around, so in the fast flow there will be lots of chances for snow, but also chances for cutters or tuckers. At the least it will be exciting. A suppressed pattern in the long term means seems like it would be hard to achieve with a +NAO.

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Looks like Yukon ridge with somewhat -AO and netrual-ish NAO. That would work,just not a KU pattern.

Yeah it's serviceable...but not going to get any slow moving wound up systems unless a brief block shows up.

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Looks like Yukon ridge with somewhat -AO and netrual-ish NAO. That would work,just not a KU pattern.

Weeklies?

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Yeah it's serviceable...but not going to get any slow moving wound up systems unless a brief block shows up.

 

You can always get a bootleg ridge moving in parallel with the storm over Hudson Bay too.That won't show up in a monthly forecast though.

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Weeklies were ok. Week 3 and 4 weren't bad. Some slight higher anomalies over us, but still ridging near and esp north of AK. Seemed like split flow which can be good.

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Sounds an awful lot like what a few members have been talking about and persistence. And got scolded for

 

I think that was in reference to the snow drought.

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Sounds an awful lot like what a few members have been talking about and persistence. And got scolded for

You get scolded for providing no scientific discussion to your calls. I can sit here and say ORH is going to get way below normal snowfall the rest of the way and I could be right. But it would not deserve any kudos if I left it at that and it turned out to be right.. Not without discussing some legit points that support that outlook.

I've been questioning the NAO too but I have not pretended to know it will stay positive the rest of the winter. There isn't a way to know that. The long range seasonal models don't look so good for a -NAO but they don't have a lot of skill. These things can turn on a dime sometimes.

It's perfectly fine to post predictions...but sell us. It's a science board. Sell us with the science. That's what we ask for in these threads if deterministic predictions are made.

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You get scolded for providing no scientific discussion to your calls. I can sit here and say ORH is going to get way below normal snowfall the rest of the way and I could be right. But it would not deserve any kudos if I left it at that and it turned out to be right.. Not without discussing some legit points that support that outlook.

I've been questioning the NAO too but I have not pretended to know it will stay positive the rest of the winter. There isn't a way to know that. The long range seasonal models don't look so good for a -NAO but they don't have a lot of skill. These things can turn on a dime sometimes.

It's perfectly fine to post predictions...but sell us. It's a science board. Sell us with the science. That's what we ask for in these threads if deterministic predictions are made.

Im 99.9999% sure I did. I cited no blocking, fast flow, confluence, and persistence with no big coastals since the fall. That's about as Thomas Dolby as it gets..science!!  

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Looks like Yukon ridge with somewhat -AO and netrual-ish NAO. That would work,just not a KU pattern.

wonder how it snowed last winter

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wonder how it snowed last winter

 

Well no two patterns are alike, and it's not a KU pattern. Of course, one can't rule it out and also..I never said no snow. 

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Im 99.9999% sure I did. I cited no blocking, fast flow, confluence, and persistence with no big coastals since the fall. That's about as Thomas Dolby as it gets..science!!

You are citing current conditions. That isn't support for what the rest of the winter will do. :lol:

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We've also been citing this...and were reprimanded

Anthony Masiello ‏@antmasiello  45m

@ScottNogueira lol...it's not a really warm pattern either but welcome to the 1980's

 

That's because I joked and said "no KU for you." Jeez.

 

You guys are taking things too literally. Anyways, it's not too different from last winter ironically. I also will add that there are signs we get split flow later this month. If that happens, then the stakes are high. There is a lot of winter left.

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That's because I joked and said "no KU for you." Jeez.

You guys are taking things too literally. Anyways, it's not too different from last winter ironically. I also will add that there are signs we get split flow later this month. If that happens, then the stakes are high. There is a lot of winter left.

Yeah the split flow that develops with a +PNA is actually a very good pattern. It produces bootleg pseudo blocks sometimes. (Think PDII in 2003 as an example). I'd really want to see some STJ in there if we get that. Not too overpowering obviously but it's been feeble so far.

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Well no two patterns are alike, and it's not a KU pattern. Of course, one can't rule it out and also..I never said no snow.

not directed at you at all

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Weeklies were ok. Week 3 and 4 weren't bad. Some slight higher anomalies over us, but still ridging near and esp north of AK. Seemed like split flow which can be good.

Thanks for the report. For weeks 3/4, is there any semblance of improvement in the Atlantic AKA some type of ridging in the Greenland? Or are we pretty much looking at a continuation of what we currently have up there?

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Thanks for the report. For weeks 3/4, is there any semblance of improvement in the Atlantic AKA some type of ridging in the Greenland? Or are we pretty much looking at a continuation of what we currently have up there?

 

The +NAO won't die. Best way to deal with it, is to have some sort of ridge bridge up over AK and over into the N Pole near Greenland.

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It's interpretation of it, but if that pattern happened, it could be. Nothing particular stands out at the moment.

Pattern won'y be good for NYC south but interior northeast and New England

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