IsentropicLift Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 It's pretty easy to see how the orientation of the Pacific jet is killing most of our storm threats in the medium range. A positive PNA would do wonders in this pattern as all of that energy would be forced up over the top of the ridge only to dive into the Rockies or Western Plains and set the stage for a very stormy pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The 12z PGFS was really close to giving us a good storm for the period around the 30th. Miller A/B hybrid with a weak southern stream system interacting with ULL energy over the lakes and some cold air around. It only takes one of these events working out to change the entire feel of the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The Para is still maintaining this idea of a huge EPO ridge that doesn't get beaten down. Hopefully it's correct, considering most guidance disagrees with that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 It's night and day compared to the regular GFS with the handling of the EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Bluewave was completely correct in the models underestimating the SE ridge. Every run keeps pushing the cold air further and further away as we get closer. There's a lot of cold air spilling to our west but it only enhances the SE ridging and there's no -NAO so it's no wonder you see systems cutting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 FWIW the 12z GGEM has a similar idea to the PGFS. Southern stream system rides the gradient with a really nice snowstorm for most in this sub-forum. The surface freezing line hangs over NNJ for most of the storm with 850's SE of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 It's night and day compared to the regular GFS with the handling of the EPO. Afraid to get in bed with the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Bluewave was completely correct in the models underestimating the SE ridge. Every run keeps pushing the cold air further and further away as we get closer. There's a lot of cold air spilling to our west but it only enhances the SE ridging and there's no -NAO so it's no wonder you see systems cutting. Has nothing to do with MJO and the SE ridge . It`s the breakdown of the EPO and AO . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 PGFS looks to be bringing a Nor'Easter up the coast at Hr 240... Lots of cold air.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 PGFS looks to be bringing a Nor'Easter up the coast at Hr 240... Lots of cold air.. that's a bit far out to be taken seriously. 10 days and much can and likely will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 PGFS looks to be bringing a Nor'Easter up the coast at Hr 240... Lots of cold air.. Which 10 days from now will equal lakes cutter or apps runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 that's a bit far out to be taken seriously. 10 days and much can and likely will change. Agreed but if it showed a GLC this board would be cliff jumping. Regular GFS looks decent in the long range, coastal huggers verbatim with snow just inland but that can change, cold air is around so a later phase would mean snow to the coast. 2 good 12z GFS runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Pgfs is way better than the old gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Pgfs is way better than the old gfs Better because old gfs is cutters and Xbox has snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Better because old gfs is cutters and Xbox has snow lol No, it has definitely verified better as a whole so far, I have not looked religiously at it but it has generally been better than the regular GFS has I think beyond day 3-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I'm fairly certain that by better he meant that it has a better looking pattern going forward, not that it has scored better or worse than the old GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Well at least the GFSx is consistent. The 12Z is still at an anomaly of +12.1degs. for next 7 days, previous was +12.5degs. Should get better as we add some below normal temps. at end (there is still no below normal temp. indicated) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I'm fairly certain that by better he meant that it has a better looking pattern going forward, not that it has scored better or worse than the old GFS. Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The GEFS is much more amplified with the EPO than the 00z GEFS was. It's a laughable difference. I'm just not sure we really know what's going to happen yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The GEFS is much more amplified with the EPO than the 00z GEFS was. It's a laughable difference. I'm just not sure we really know what's going to happen yet. I'm inclined to believe we just need to use the indices at this point...I think we may see a chance for colder and a storm 12/27-1/2...I think it then breaks down and goes mild again and I'm starting to believe after 1/10-1/15 it flips completely cold and stormy...the one thing that seems to have been right so far is the Euro's MJO forecasts...it nailed the COD and back into phase 4 weeks ago...now it appears...key word...appears that it has decent amplitude through 5 and 6 and may get into 7 and 8 in mid January...I'm not budging off that unless we see the -AO return on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Bluewave was completely correct in the models underestimating the SE ridge. Every run keeps pushing the cold air further and further away as we get closer. There's a lot of cold air spilling to our west but it only enhances the SE ridging and there's no -NAO so it's no wonder you see systems cutting.There were a few of us who argued the ridge would be stronger and we would be above avg towards the end of the month in terms of temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I think this is a great lesson in taking LR forecasts with a grain of salt. I'm not saying people shouldn't make them, but even when all factors look good, you can have a bad winter, and vice-versa. We still have a lot of winter to go but next 10-15 days, I'm not seeing anything to get excited about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I think this is a great lesson in taking LR forecasts with a grain of salt. I'm not saying people shouldn't make them, but even when all factors look good, you can have a bad winter, and vice-versa. We still have a lot of winter to go but next 10-15 days, I'm not seeing anything to get excited about. the next 10-15 days is probably the only time frame that you should be actually somewhat excited for the issue is with after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 the next 10-15 days is probably the only time frame that you should be actually somewhat excited for the issue is with after that perhaps a shot at the NYE storm, but doubt it (that's 9 days out).. maybe on more chance and beginning of January, but not hanging my hat on a storm system coinciding with transient cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The GEFS is much more amplified with the EPO than the 00z GEFS was. It's a laughable difference. I'm just not sure we really know what's going to happen yet. If the JMA weeklies ( which were great last year in a neg epo regime ) looked like the GFS I would bite . Last year the Euro def struggled with the neg EPO and kept trying to warm the EC up and failed . The GFS ensembles are cold from the 28th thru the 8th . But I am blind after that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 ggem has about 3-4 storms in the mid range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 ggem has about 3-4 storms in the mid range who wants to bet that at least 2-3 coincide with warmth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 who wants to bet that at least 2-3 coincide with warmth... Not sure if that will be the case. Looks like there will be enough cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 A neg EPO/AO as per the GFS would mute this . Now square your shoulders . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 And now the 12z ECMWF is coming in with the SWFE potential for late next weekend as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.