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December Forecast Discussion


REDMK6GLI

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It's pretty easy to see how the orientation of the Pacific jet is killing most of our storm threats in the medium range. A positive PNA would do wonders in this pattern as all of that energy would be forced up over the top of the ridge only to dive into the Rockies or Western Plains and set the stage for a very stormy pattern.

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The 12z PGFS was really close to giving us a good storm for the period around the 30th. Miller A/B hybrid with a weak southern stream system interacting with ULL energy over the lakes and some cold air around. It only takes one of these events working out to change the entire feel of the pattern.

 

gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png

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Bluewave was completely correct in the models underestimating the SE ridge. Every run keeps pushing the cold air further and further away as we get closer. There's a lot of cold air spilling to our west but it only enhances the SE ridging and there's no -NAO so it's no wonder you see systems cutting. 

Has nothing to do with MJO and the SE ridge . It`s the breakdown of the EPO and AO .

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that's a bit far out to be taken seriously.   10 days and much can and likely will change.

 

Agreed but if it showed a GLC this board would be cliff jumping.

 

Regular GFS looks decent in the long range, coastal huggers verbatim with snow just inland but that can change, cold air is around so a later phase would mean snow to the coast.

 

2 good 12z GFS runs.

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Well at least the GFSx is consistent.    The 12Z is still at an anomaly of  +12.1degs. for next 7 days, previous was +12.5degs.   Should get better as we add some below normal temps. at end  (there is still no below normal temp. indicated)

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The GEFS is much more amplified with the EPO than the 00z GEFS was. It's a laughable difference.

 

I'm just not sure we really know what's going to happen yet. 

 

I'm inclined to believe we just need to use the indices at this point...I think we may see a chance for colder and a storm 12/27-1/2...I think it then breaks down and goes mild again and I'm starting to believe after 1/10-1/15 it flips completely cold and stormy...the one thing that seems to have been right so far is the Euro's MJO forecasts...it nailed the COD and back into phase 4 weeks ago...now it appears...key word...appears that it has decent amplitude through 5 and 6 and may get into 7 and 8 in mid January...I'm not budging off that unless we see the -AO return on the ensembles.

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Bluewave was completely correct in the models underestimating the SE ridge. Every run keeps pushing the cold air further and further away as we get closer. There's a lot of cold air spilling to our west but it only enhances the SE ridging and there's no -NAO so it's no wonder you see systems cutting.

There were a few of us who argued the ridge would be stronger and we would be above avg towards the end of the month in terms of temps.
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I think this is a great lesson in taking LR forecasts with a grain of salt. I'm not saying people shouldn't make them, but even when all factors look good, you can have a bad winter, and vice-versa. 

 

We still have a lot of winter to go but next 10-15 days, I'm not seeing anything to get excited about.

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I think this is a great lesson in taking LR forecasts with a grain of salt. I'm not saying people shouldn't make them, but even when all factors look good, you can have a bad winter, and vice-versa. 

 

We still have a lot of winter to go but next 10-15 days, I'm not seeing anything to get excited about.

the next 10-15 days is probably the only time frame that you should be actually somewhat excited for

 

the issue is with after that

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the next 10-15 days is probably the only time frame that you should be actually somewhat excited for

 

the issue is with after that

perhaps a shot at the NYE storm, but doubt it (that's 9 days out).. maybe on more chance and beginning of January, but not hanging my hat on a storm system coinciding with transient cold air

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The GEFS is much more amplified with the EPO than the 00z GEFS was. It's a laughable difference.

 

I'm just not sure we really know what's going to happen yet. 

If the JMA weeklies ( which were great last year in a neg epo regime ) looked like the GFS I would bite .

Last year the Euro def struggled with the neg EPO and kept trying to warm the EC up and failed  .

The GFS ensembles are cold  from the 28th thru the 8th . But I am blind after that period. 

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